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New poll not good for Heller, but warning signs for Dems

Jon Ralston
Jon Ralston
Ralston Reports
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A few observations on the new PPP survey of Nevada:

---Let’s get the caveats out of the way first: PPP is a Democratic firm. It does robopolling, which is rarely as accurate as live callers (and appeared to only survey landlines). The sample is slightly skewed to the Democrats — the internals show those surveyed were 47-41, Hillary Clinton voters (she won the state by under 3) and 41-35, Democrats (the statewide lead is now under 5 percent). The GOP usually has a significant turnout edge in off-years. If there is more Democratic enthusiasm this year than usual, as polls are showing, this could all even out. And PPP has done pretty well with its surveys in Nevada, nailing both the major races last cycle.

---Sen. Dean Heller’s numbers in this poll are awful — 28-52. Could they really be that low? Maybe. But my guess is they have improved slightly since last year and even PPP showed him up 6 points from last year. I am sure Heller’s internals show him doing better. But even if he is at, say, 40 percent, that still ain’t good. Bottom line: He’s vulnerable.

---If Heller is really only trailing Rep. Jacky Rosen by 5 percentage points — 44-39 — that is very good news for… him. Consider:  a guy with a possible approval rating under 30 percent is only 5 percentage points behind?

---President Trump’s approval numbers — 45-51 — are better than he is doing many other places. That’s still terrible, obviously, but if he really is at 45 percent, that’s much higher than the Democrats would like him to be.

---Some of the crosstabs in the survey are odd. Twenty-two percent of Democrats approve of Trump? Heller is 10-62 among indies? Seems off, but anything is possible. I am sure Republicans are hurting with indies to some degree — and they could make up a bigger-than-ever slice of the November electorate.

---The health-care numbers show that issue could be potent for Democrats. And Heller’s myriad positions do not help him.

---Bottom line: This is not a good poll for Heller, but it’s not as devastating as it might seem. The dissonance between his approval number and the horse race against Rosen is more than strange. And his ability to focus on the general election and the coming attacks on Rosen because of Danny Tarkanian’s skedaddling out of the primary is a big deal -- he can build up his war chest and prepare solely for Rosen. I still think he is a slight underdog, but it’s only March.

---We will soon be conducting our own statewide poll by the great Mark Mellman. We will release and discuss the results with Mellman near the end of April at a Southern Nevada IndyTalks event. Should be a fun night, so mark your calendars for April 24.

Updated at 8:50 AM to reflect no cell phones appear to have been polled.

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