These Nevada legislative races will help determine which party controls Carson City in 2027

Democrats appear more than likely to control both chambers of the Legislature come 2027, but it will be a tall order for the party to gain coveted supermajority status, according to The Nevada Independent's initial projections for legislative races.

At the same time, Republicans are facing difficulties in their efforts to grow their numbers in both chambers and near-impossible odds of gaining a majority in either chamber. There are 11 seats in the state Senate and 42 in the Assembly up for election in 2026.

Of those 53 legislative seats, nearly a third are uncontested or were already decided in the primary. 

Democrats already hold majorities in both chambers, with 27 seats in the 42-member Assembly and 13 seats in the 21-member Senate — and it's unlikely that their majority status will change. But the party is one seat shy of the coveted two-thirds supermajority in both chambers, which would allow Democratic lawmakers to override vetoes without Republican support.

Projections were based on conversations with about 10 people familiar with legislative campaigns and assessments of factors including fundraising, candidate quality, voter registration and name recognition. They will be updated over time. 

As it stands, hopes for both parties will likely come down to six swing seats.

Those include two state Senate seats held by Democrats and four seats in the Assembly, two held by Republicans and two held by Democrats. Five of the six swing seats have a Democratic voter registration edge as of July, and only one (Assembly District 2) favors Republicans, though nonpartisans make up a sizable share in all of them. 

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has also marked a number of these races as targets this cycle.

Races rated as "lean Democrat" by The Indy outnumber those rated "lean Republican" 9 to 3 — a 3:1 ratio. It suggests Democrats have more seats that are probably safe but not quite locked down, while Republicans have very few seats in that middle-but-favorable tier.

Democratic control of the statehouse is the norm in Nevada. Outside the 2014 "red wave" election, Democrats have held majorities in both houses of the Legislature since 2009. The party bolstered its structural advantages in congressional and legislative races in 2021 through the redistricting process.

Republicans, however, have historically had more luck winning the governor's seat and using that as a check on Democratic power in the Legislature. Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) vetoed 162 bills over the last four years, setting a record for a single Nevada governor's term.

Read below for insights into the most important legislative races on the midterm ballot:

Senate District 8 - Swing

As Sen. Marilyn Dondero Loop (D-Las Vegas) faces Republican George Harris, a former Clark County GOP chair, her district only has a slim 0.8 percentage point Democratic advantage in voter registration.

Harris defeated a primary challenge from Laz Chavez, a former assistant sheriff under Lombardo when he was the Clark County sheriff. 

Though Harris outraised Chavez heading into the June primary, Dondero Loop, who chairs the powerful Senate Finance Committee, raised the most money of any Senate candidate in the second quarter.

Campaign finance reports covering April, May and June show Dondero Loop has more than $506,000 in cash on hand heading into November, while Harris has about $91,200.

The slim voter registration advantage makes this race a toss-up, but there is the power of incumbency — Dondero Loop has held the seat continuously since she first ran in 2018.

Senate District 12 - Swing

Sen. Julie Pazina (D-Las Vegas) is likely in the most competitive state Senate district election this cycle. 

Though Democrats have a voter registration advantage of 3.2 percentage points over Republicans in the district, it's a seat that has regularly seen narrow outcomes and was only flipped blue by Pazina in 2022 by a slim 5 percentage point margin.

Her Republican challenger, Rafael Arroyo-Montalvo, is no stranger to the district. He unsuccessfully challenged Assm. Sandra Jauregui (D-Las Vegas) in Assembly District 41 last cycle, losing by 0.8 percentage points. That previous run also gives him name recognition as the Assembly district is nested within the boundaries of Senate District 12.

Pazina had a cash-on-hand advantage of more than $320,000 over Arroyo-Montalvo as of the end of June.

Assembly District 2 - Swing

This Southern Nevada district is the only swing seat that slightly favors (2.8 percentage points) Republicans in voter registration over Democrats.

The seat was left open after Assm. Heidi Kasama (R-Las Vegas) opted to run for a seat on the Clark County Commission. 

In the general election, two political unknowns are facing off. Democrat Kamilah Bywaters, who works in special education and lost a race for the Clark County school board in 2024, will face Republican Drew Teitelbaum, who served in various federal agencies under the Trump administration and worked for President Donald Trump's presidential campaign in 2016. 

Teitelbaum was endorsed by Lombardo and Kasama.

Teitelbaum reported raising more than $27,700 in direct donations and having about $94,300 in cash on hand after the most recent campaign finance reporting period. Bywaters reported raising about $9,300 in direct donations and having $370 in cash on hand for the same period.

Despite the fundraising advantage, Teitelbaum could face headwinds in a national environment expected to favor Democrats, especially given his previous ties to the Trump administration. 

Assembly District 9 - Swing

Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager (D-Las Vegas), who narrowly won his re-election bid for this Southern Nevada district in 2024, announced he would not be running for re-election in August,  leaving the seat open for the first time since 2016. 

Emerging from competitive primaries for the seat are Democrat Ryan Hampton, an addiction recovery advocate, and Republican Erica Neely, a business owner.

A nationally recognized policy advocate for addiction and mental health recovery, Hampton raised more than $67,000 in direct contributions during the second quarter of the year and has about $34,100 heading into the general election. Neely raised about $30,600 in direct donations and has about $29,000 heading into November. Neely has name recognition in the district after narrowly losing to Yeager in 2024.

Yeager endorsed Hampton, and Lombardo endorsed Neely. 

A few legislative observers noted that Hampton's bonafides and fundraising acumen could leave this seat as "lean Democrat," though the seat is still "swingy." 

Assembly District 35 - Swing

Assm. Rebecca Edgeworth (R-Las Vegas) won and flipped this swingy district in 2024, but Democrats are hoping to win it back.

Edgeworth will defend her seat, which has a slight Democrat voter registration advantage of 1.5 percentage points, against Democrat Joe Spica, a bellman at The Cosmopolitan resort and a member of the Culinary Workers Union Local 226, which endorsed him in the primary.

The Culinary's endorsement could signal that the union will deploy spending and door-knocking to help Spica.

Second quarter campaign finance reports show Edgeworth raised about $81,300 in direct donations — the third most of any Republican Assembly candidate — and has a war chest of $146,000 heading into November. Spica reported raising $25,800 in direct donations and has about $29,400 in cash on hand.

Edgeworth, as the incumbent, has name recognition, but as one knowledgeable person remarked, the Culinary's involvement means "she's not safe at all."

Assembly District 37 - Swing

Assm. Shea Backus (D-Las Vegas) is squaring off against Republican Jill Douglass, the chairwoman of the Clark County Republican Party who unsuccessfully ran for state Senate in 2024.

Backus has represented the swing district since 2018 save for a one-term break after losing in 2020 (and winning the seat back in 2022). 

Though the district has a razor-thin Democratic voter registration advantage of 1.3 percentage points, several legislative observers noted that Backus has outperformed in the district before and has survived tough political challenges.

Backus reported a cash on hand total of more than $139,800 after the second quarter, while Douglass reported more than $41,600. 

Senate District 9 - Lean Democrat

Sen. Melanie Scheible (D-Las Vegas), an attorney, has held this seat since 2018 and is facing Republican Maria Thompson, a former Las Vegas broadcast journalist and attorney who is endorsed by Lombardo.

The district has a 6.2 percentage point Democrat voter-registration advantage over Republicans.

Scheible has more than $340,500 in cash on hand as of the end of June, while Thompson had about $172,800.

Observers noted that of the three state Senate seats Republicans are targeting, Scheible's will be the hardest to flip given her name recognition and the national environment.

Assembly District 4 - Lean Republican

Assm. Lisa Cole (R-Las Vegas) is defending her seat against Democrat Eileen Eady, a small-business owner.

Though the district has a narrow Republican advantage in voter registration (2.6 percentage points over Democrats), it's rated "lean Republican" for several reasons, including fundraising and name recognition.

After the second quarter of the year, Cole reported more than $107,200 in cash on hand, significantly more than Eady's more than $3,700. 

In the primary, Cole garnered the endorsements of the Clark County Education Association, the Culinary Union and other notable political entities. She could also be in line for a leadership position in the next legislative session.

Assembly District 21 - Lean Democrat

Assm. Elaine Marzola (D-Las Vegas) is the incoming Assembly Speaker — as long as she holds her seat. 

She is facing off against Republican Patsy Carvalho in the general election. The district has a slim 2.6 percentage point Democratic voter-registration advantage over Republicans, but Marzola's fundraising and leadership status place this district in the "lean Democrat" category.

Marzola reported more than $688,200 in cash on hand, while Carvalho reported no contributions and only $25 in cash on hand for her campaign.

Assembly District 25 - Lean Democrat

This Northern Nevada district has a slight Democratic voter registration advantage (2.3 percentage points), yet the "lean Democrat" rating did not generate widespread agreement, with many sources indicating the district should be classified as "swing."

Assm. Selena La Rue Hatch (D-Reno) has name recognition and generally punches above her weight in the district. In second-quarter campaign finance reports, she reported more than $54,800 in cash on hand, whereas her Republican opponent Mike Ginsburg reported a little more than $6,800 in his cash on hand.

Those who noted that the district should likely be marked as "swing" said that Ginsburg is well known in Northern Nevada and was instrumental in building the Moana Springs pool. Endorsed by Lombardo, Ginsburg formerly served as the chair of the Reno Parks and Recreation Commission and ran unsuccessfully for state Senate in 2024.