Anatomy of an upset: How a perennial candidate upset Lombardo's pick for secretary of state

Jim Marchant's decision to run for Nevada secretary of state came down to the wire.

The former state lawmaker, among the loudest voices claiming Nevada's election system to be fraudulently run, initially announced a bid for Congress. But in the final hours of March's candidate filing period, he decided to run for secretary of state, which oversees the state's elections. Campaign finance reports show that he raised zilch in the first three months of 2026.

In early May, Marchant told The Nevada Independent that his lack of fundraising is "not going to be a problem," despite facing opponents with tens of thousands of dollars in their coffers, one of whom ran television ads and had the backing of Gov. Joe Lombardo (R). 

He was right.

In what became perhaps the most unlikely result of last week's primaries, Marchant — who has said wants to unregister, then re-register all voters in Nevada, verify people's identities through their heartbeats and has not trusted election results in decades, including the times when he won — emerged victorious by more than 3,000 votes.

It sets up a general election rematch with Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar (D), who beat Marchant in the 2022 general election by more than 20,000 votes. That year, Marchant also fended off an establishment-backed, better-funded candidate (Jesse Haw) in the primary.

In interviews with The Indy, Marchant and Nevada political insiders granted anonymity to candidly discuss their thoughts on the race attributed his win mostly to one factor — name recognition in Southern Nevada.

"I know a lot of people here," Marchant said. "I think that was a major factor."

Although Marchant only won seven of the state's 17 counties, including four rural counties with less than 1,000 votes cast, his Clark County performance put him over the edge. He received 8,300 more votes than any opponent in Nevada's most populous county, more than enough to outpace Lombardo's pick, Reno businesswoman Shirley Folkins-Roberts, who finished second.

Because Marchant has already run for office many times — appearing on a ballot in every election cycle for the past decade — he didn't need yard signs or TV ads to get his name out there, insiders said. The fact that his two top opponents were based in Northern Nevada also helped.

Insiders added that his views surrounding Nevada's election system — which are conspiratorial — was palatable to the Republican primary voter.

Still, there is little precedent for a candidate to win after such little campaigning.

"This is pretty shocking," one Republican insider said.

What his campaign looked like

Marchant had no campaign ads or yard signs, and he said his total fundraising up through Election Day was a few thousand dollars. There weren't many expenses for his campaign, either — he spent about $1,000 of his own money, which he said mostly went toward gas.

He also got some campaign help from Republican political operative Rory McShane, who will take a more active role in Marchant's general election campaign.

His opponents had many more resources. Folkins-Roberts, the businesswoman backed by Lombardo, raised about $80,000 in outside donations in the first three months of 2026, and her campaign spent about $200,000 on ads.

Folkins-Roberts' campaign declined an interview request, and in a statement Monday, she did not mention Marchant but said "I entered this race because I care deeply about Nevada and that commitment will not change."

Former Assm. Sharron Angle (R-Reno), another perennial candidate who came in third, raised more than $40,000 through March but also did not air any TV ads. She did not respond to a request for comment.

Armed with few resources, Marchant mostly focused on conversations with people and speaking at candidate events. He "did a little bit" of campaigning in Washoe County and the rurals, making stops in Carson City and Douglas and Lyon counties, but he mostly focused on Clark County.

He also thinks that people trust him.

"They know I'm genuine and that I really care about them and want to improve their life," he said. "I'm a candidate for the people, more than the establishment, the people that run the government … [voters] know that I'm for them."

The results underscore how his name recognition paid off.

Of the seven counties he won, five of them were in places where he has run before. This includes Clark County, where he won an Assembly race in 2016, and four counties included in Congressional District 4, where Marchant received 150,000 votes in the seat's general election in 2020.

What it reveals about the GOP primary voter

Marchant and Angle represented a wing of the Republican party that does not trust elections — and together, they received almost 60 percent of the total vote.

Republican political insiders said that reflects how, among GOP primary voters, trust in elections is still a prominent issue six years after President Donald Trump falsely claimed a stolen election in 2020. Additionally, the federal proposal to crack down on illegal voting — commonly known as the SAVE Act — has been relentlessly touted by major Republicans in recent months, and backlash over California's long time to count votes took off during the early voting period.

"Conversation around election integrity is still very much part of the conservative policy concerns," one longtime Nevada Republican said.

A poll earlier this year found Republicans split about the extent of issues in Nevada's election system, though the majority expressed concerns about mail ballot procedures.

However, about half of Republicans chose to vote using their mail ballot in this year's primary.

Marchant added that his defeat of Lombardo's preferred candidate shows there is a gap between what Republican primary voters want versus what establishment Republicans prefer. 

"I talk to the people, not the establishment," he said. "There's a lot of things that can be done by our leaders on both sides of the aisle, and it doesn't appear that they care about the people, to me."

In an interview Wednesday, Aguilar did not comment on Marchant and Angle's share of the vote. But he pointed to the fact that Folkins-Roberts, who did not cast doubt on the security of Nevada elections, "got a significant number of votes" despite pushing policies that "aren't that drastic from where we are."

Can lightning strike twice?

Marchant has his work cut out for him in the general election.

He already lost to Aguilar four years ago, and this year, the Democrat has the advantage of being an incumbent and more than $750,000 in his bank account as of the end of March.

"It's always a David and Goliath type of thing," Marchant said. "The odds are with him."

He's also not expecting to get much support from establishment Republicans, and he presumes he will have obstacles raising money.

"I'm known to the political side that I can't be bought," he said. "That's the problem for me raising money."

Lombardo's campaign did not respond to a question about endorsing Marchant.

It's very rare for prominent election rematches in Nevada. The most recent one came in 2018, when Steven Horsford beat incumbent Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-NV) in Nevada's 4th Congressional District, four years after Hardy beat Horsford.

In an interview, Aguilar largely did not comment on facing Marchant again, but he touted his record as the incumbent, specifically the rollout of a statewide voter registration and election management system.

"We came in with an idea and a vision of how we wanted to modernize and innovate. I think we've proven that we can do that," he said. "We're coming back with a plan to say 'We got to this point, here's where we need to go next.'"