Could spiking gas prices help Democrats flip Nevada's governor seat?

The blame game around Nevada's high gas prices is nothing new, but experts say the stakes are higher than ever for incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and his likely opponent in this year's gubernatorial race, Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford.

The two agree that the rising cost of gas — $5 per gallon on average as of April 14 and nearing record highs set in 2022 — is bad for Nevadans. But their explanation for the high prices couldn't be more different.

Lombardo says California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is at fault, arguing that regulations in his state aimed at curtailing oil refineries' carbon emissions are driving up gas prices in neighboring states. Ford points to President Donald Trump's war in Iran, which is cutting off access to a sizable share of the international oil supply. 

Experts in politics and energy told The Indy that regardless of the cause or actual power a governor has to influence gas prices, the higher costs to fill up could be a liability for Lombardo and a source of momentum for Ford.

"Lombardo is saddled with a bad economy and a very unpopular president," said David Damore, a political science professor at UNLV. "And the Democrats are going to try to make that relationship appear as close as possible for voters."

Darrell West, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution who focuses on technology policy, told The Indy that he didn't expect gas prices to decline to pre-war levels before November's election. 

"Energy costs always go up faster than they come down," West said. 

At a campaign event held at a Las Vegas gas station last week that was crashed by Lombardo's supporters, Ford singled out the governor's veto of a 2025 bill brought by his office (AB44) that would have banned manipulative price fixing on essential goods such as gas. 

"Lombardo will never take real action to bring energy costs or any costs down for working families, because he is a doormat for President [Donald] Trump and the businesses and the interests that make things so expensive right here in Nevada," Ford said at last week's event. 

Lombardo has countered by arguing high gas prices are due to the state's reliance on heavily regulated California refineries — the source of nearly 90 percent of Nevada's gasoline and diesel. 

The governor's argument has been echoed by the Energy & Convenience Association of Nevada, which represents gas stations statewide. The group has also laid the blame for rising costs on "well documented supply constraints originating outside Nevada."

"There is very little Nevada can do when we are at the end of the pipeline," association spokesperson Miranda Hoover said in a March press release.

Lombardo has repeatedly urged Newsom not to adopt more rules aimed at reducing the carbon emissions of California refineries. He's previously called for a suspension of Nevada's gas tax, and he formed a fuel resiliency committee earlier this year.

Asked if Ford would make similar overtures to California leaders if elected governor, Ford campaign spokesperson Prerna Jagadeesh wrote in a statement that "as Governor, Attorney General Aaron Ford won't hesitate to work across state lines and use every available tool to bring down gas prices." 

Drew Galang, a spokesperson for the governor's office, wrote in a statement to The Indy, "As we're seeing in Iran, geopolitical conflicts can certainly have an effect on oil prices, but that doesn't change the fact that prices were already high in Nevada because of policy choices made in California."

Regardless of cause, incumbents are typically held accountable for rising costs, say experts who added that they were skeptical about Lombardo's strategy of blaming California for gas prices.

In part, that's because of how visible the current increases in price are to voters.

"You see the spikes when you go to fill up," Damore said. "And everybody realizes that the more you're spending on gas, it's going to squeeze out anything else you want to do." 

A significant body of research hints at a negative correlation between high gas prices and presidential approval ratings. A 2016 study by researchers at Stanford found that for every 10-cent increase in gas prices, presidential favorability fell 0.6 points. 

Advocates say the prices are a constant reminder to voters that they're facing a multi-front affordability crisis, one that's contributed to trust in government and consumer sentiment reaching all-time lows.

"Whether it be gas that you're putting in your car, or the energy that you need to use electricity in your home, or the cost of housing — it's all top of mind for people," said Kristee Watson, the executive director for the environmental nonprofit the Nevada Conservation League. "Those are really difficult decisions to make."

This article was updated at 8:00a.m. on 4/15/2026 to correctly reflect the response of the Ford campaign and at 10:00a.m. on on 4/15/2026 to include new comment from a Ford campaign spokesperson.