Indy Elections: How Nevada can matter next week
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: We map out the scenarios where Nevada could determine the next president and control of Congress. Plus, which party has the turnout lead in the key congressional and legislative races, and why a top Republican senator is bullish about Sam Brown’s chances.
Don’t miss it: We’ve officially unveiled the 2024 guide to key judicial races in Nevada. Be sure to check it out as you’re deciding how to vote.
Keep following The Boss’ early voting blog, which has all the turnout data in the #WeMatter state you could want.
Haven't had time to digest all the numbers yet?
Here are some highlights:
- Republicans have a statewide turnout lead of about 42,700, or 4.9 percentage points
- 790,000 votes have been cast, which would be about 60 percent turnout if total turnout is slightly above 1.3 million
- The GOP share of in-person early voting and mail voting in Clark County continues to slightly decrease over time.
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By the Numbers:
- 2 days left of early voting
- 5 days until Election Day
- 95 days until the 83rd legislative session
We know we matter. But how much?
By Gabby Birenbaum
You’ve heard the saying: We Matter.
The Boss is fond of saying it because it’s undoubtedly true. Nevada is one of the seven swing states that will decide the election, and it’s why presidential candidates and their surrogates keep showing up in the Silver State.
But are we essential? That’s a different story.
The Indy analyzed the various scenarios in which Nevadans will decide the next president, as well as control of the U.S. Senate
Click here to learn more.
The voting groups we’re keeping an eye on
Nevada Latinos have more voting power than ever. Here's what that means for 2024 by Eric Neugeboren and Isabella Aldrete
Although Nevada’s Latino population has ballooned, they tend to turn out at far lower rates than Black and White voters. As one professor put it, the group is politically “punching below their weight class.”
Harris campaign courts LDS voters in Nevada, banking on Jan. 6, distaste for Trump by Gabby Birenbaum
Although the group has traditionally voted Republican, the Harris campaign is banking on Nevada’s sizable LDS population to improve her margins.
Nevada events abound as campaigns 'more aware that the Asian vote matters' by Gabby Birenbaum
The Silver State has the highest percentage of AAPI voters, making up nearly 12 percent of Nevada’s electorate. While the majority voted for Joe Biden in 2020, political leanings differ across age groups and nationalities.
Among some Bernie Sanders supporters in Nevada, Harris ‘is the best of the choices’ by Eric Neugeboren and Isabella Aldrete
Despite Harris’ continued support of Israel, many progressive voters say the stakes are too high to sit out this election.
Can Harris energize minority Nevada voters who had soured on Trump, Biden? by Isabella Aldrete
Harris’ entry into the presidential race this summer energized Black voters across Nevada who favored her more progressive perspective.
Where turnout stands in key legislative, congressional races
By Eric Neugeboren
Legislature
In the 10 legislative races most likely to determine whether Democrats can override vetoes issued by Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, the early voting turnout is tight — but the GOP is turning out better in certain Democrat-held seats.
As of Wednesday morning, registered Democrats held an advantage in five of the races and registered Republicans outvoted Democrats in the other five, according to Nevadata, the data firm run by Democratic campaign consultant Paul Selberg. Some of the margins are razor-thin, with party turnout separated by less than 100 votes in three of the 10 races.
Of the five contests where the GOP has the turnout lead, three of the seats are held by Democrats, while Democrats have a turnout edge in just one seat held by the GOP.
The question is — how much should we read into this?
To start, it’s hard to know for sure because voting behaviors are likely to be different this cycle, with Republicans for the first time encouraging early and mail voting, and because nonpartisans make up the plurality of registered voters for the first time.
But we can still look at past elections, which show early turnout predicts success more often than not.
In 2022, five legislative races were decided by less than 5 percentage points. All of them were won by Democrats, and at the same point in the early voting period, all of the Democratic candidates had turnout advantages.
2020 was more of a mixed bag. Eight races were decided by less than 5 percentage points — but at this point in the early voting period, only five of the candidates who had a turnout advantage were victorious.
Congress
In the three U.S. House seats in Southern Nevada (all held by Democrats), Republicans have a turnout edge in two of the races as of Wednesday morning.
Congressional District 1, held by Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), is the only district where Democrats have a turnout edge, with about 1,700 more registered Democrats voting so far than registered Republicans. In Congressional Districts 3 and 4, Republicans have a turnout advantage of about 2,000 and 65 votes, respectively.
Democrats do not appear to be overly concerned about the state of the races, pulling millions of dollars in ad reservations for the three contests last week.
At this point in the early voting periods in 2020 and 2022, though, Democrats held commanding turnout advantages in the three races.
Again, it’s hard to know whether this is a fair comparison. Republicans have finally warmed up to early and mail voting, and there are thousands of mail votes yet to be counted, which favor Democrats and have historically come in closer to Election Day (or even after).
Only time will tell…
The Lightning Round
🎤NRSC hopes to drop the mic — National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) hosted a press conference with Sam Brown in Las Vegas, a sign of the group’s growing enthusiasm about a race where the polling hasn’t looked great for Republicans.
Daines noted Republicans have plenty of other competitive Senate races, but he chose to be in Nevada because he believes Brown is surging — and that his group and others’ last-minute funding push reflects that momentum. He cited Republicans leading in early vote turnout as proof of concept.
“When you see that enthusiasm, that excitement, that intensity, prognosticators usually will say independent voters probably will follow more of where the surge is occurring than not, which means you’re seeing the polls tighten up,” Daines said.
💪 National Guard on call on Election Day — Lombardo announced Tuesday that 60 Nevada National Guard members would be activated on Election Day to support existing law enforcement on topics such as traffic enforcement and building security. The Nevada National Guard was not activated on Election Day in 2020 and 2022, spokesperson Emerson Marcus said.
🏫 AOC joins Emhoff to get out vote at UNLV — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) stopped by UNLV on Wednesday with second gentleman Doug Emhoff to encourage students to vote. Actor Josh Gad also attended.
— Gabby Birenbaum and Eric Neugeboren
Looking Ahead
- Thursday, Oct. 31: Harris and Trump are holding rallies in Nevada.
- Friday, Nov. 1: Last day of early voting
And to ease you into the weekend, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- We got Kornacki’d.
- Scooped by PopCrave
- Humboldt County … the Wisconsin of Nevada?
- Be sure to check your kids’ browser history for this disturbing content.
We’ll see you Tuesday.
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