Indy Elections: Your mail ballot may already be here
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: What do progressives think about Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign? Plus: The political rush to take credit for the United States Postal Service’s decision not to move mail processing to Sacramento, new polling shows Democrats facing increasing headwinds among Latinos and vice presidential hopeful Gov. Tim Walz’s (D-MN) Silver State stop.
The BIG news: Officials are sending out 2024 general election ballots.
Washoe County officials said mail ballots are going out Oct. 9 and will likely arrive in voters’ mailboxes next week. In Clark County, mail ballots are expected to be mailed no later than Oct. 10. Carson City residents have reported receiving their ballots already.
REMINDER: If you are not yet registered to vote and want a mail-in ballot for November, be sure to drop by your local registrar's office or deliver a voter registration form by Oct. 8. Online registration is also available until Oct. 22 at this link.
And a quick programming note: Thanks to a deluge of election news, we will now publish this newsletter twice weekly. Stay tuned for our Thursday edition.
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We want to hear from you! Send us your questions, comments, observations, jokes or what you think we should be covering or paying attention to. Email your newsletter editor Tabitha Mueller at [email protected].
By the Numbers:
- 10 days until early voting begins
- 28 days until Election Day
- 118 days until the 83rd legislative session
Nevada progressives on Harris: ‘She’s the best of the choices’
By Eric Neugeboren and Isabella Aldrete
No issue has divided the Democratic Party more this past year than U.S. policy on Israel.
Among the most outspoken progressives has been Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who stumped for Vice President Kamala Harris in Las Vegas last week. He called on Nevada progressives to vote for Harris despite President Joe Biden’s stance on Israel’s continued military operations in Gaza in the wake of Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attacks.
And judging by conversations The Indy had with attendees, they agreed.
The 10 people that we spoke with all said they were supporting Harris, even though they may not agree with all of her policies. The stakes are too high, they said, to back former President Donald Trump.
However, the economy is top of mind for Nevada voters, and a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted last month found about two-thirds of Nevada likely voters considered the Israel-Hamas war as important in determining their vote, though that was the second-lowest rate among 20 issues posed to respondents.
Read more here on what Nevada progressives think about Harris’ campaign.
What we’re reading and writing
On the Record: Assembly District 25 candidates Selena La Rue Hatch and Diana Sande by Tabitha Mueller
This Washoe County swing district could be critical in determining whether Democrats have a veto-proof supermajority.
Harris campaign courts LDS voters in Nevada, banking on Jan. 6, distaste for Trump by Gabby Birenbaum
Did you know 75 percent of Latter-day Saints identify as Republicans?
Once legislative colleagues, Steven Horsford, John Lee now squaring off for House seat by Gabby Birenbaum
They caucused together in Carson City as Democrats before Lee switched parties.
Democrats call for dismissal of GOP lawsuit alleging noncitizens on Nevada voter rolls by Eric Neugeboren
The lawsuits (and legal updates) just keep coming.
GOP pollster: Harris and Rosen up in Nevada, voter ID in landslide by Isabella Aldrete
Remember: The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.
Poll: Distrust in U.S. elections remains in Nevada, but state elections seen as fair by Eric Neugeboren
I guess it’s easier to trust geographically closer systems.
Poll: Nevadans of both parties against new tariff hikes; Trump has backed the concept by Gabby Birenbaum
When voters understand the issue …
VP debate takeaways: Vance and Walz keep it civil in a policy-heavy discussion by Bill Barrow, Zeke Miller and Nicholas Riccardi, Associated Press
If you saw the memes but missed the debate, this is the recap for you.
Indy Poll Watch
Insider Advantage (Sept. 29-30)
- 800 likely voters
- Margin of error: 3.52 percent
- Findings
- Trump 49%, Harris 48%
- Rosen 49%, Brown 42%
The starkest finding in this survey is that Harris is only up 3 percentage points with Hispanic voters — a 23-point drop from Biden’s 2020 total that would likely put Nevada out of play for her. While she is winning independents, the poll also finds that Harris is having trouble consolidating Democratic support — Trump is pulling 13 percent of Democrats.
In the Senate race, Rosen is outperforming fellow Democrat Harris with Hispanic voters (by 7 percentage points), independents (12 percentage points) and voters younger than 39 (25 percentage points.) Shockingly, Rosen is even winning white voters in this survey.
Televisa/Univision (Sept. 17-22)
- 300 likely Latino voters
- Margin of error: 5.7 percent
- Findings
- Harris 51%, Trump 39%
- Rosen 54%, Brown 33%
This poll of Latino voters in Nevada shows Harris and Rosen struggling to match the Latino vote share that Biden received in 2020 and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) earned in 2022, respectively. That continues a trend we’ve seen for Harris, especially, throughout the cycle in polling. Across surveys, Trump appears poised to improve his margins with Latino voters.
The poll also broke down vote share by whether a respondent predominantly speaks English or Spanish. Contrary to the poll’s findings in other swing states, Harris and Rosen did better among Spanish speakers — by a 4 percentage point margin for Harris and an 8 percentage point margin for Rosen, when compared to those who mainly use English.
— Gabby Birenbaum
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: The “I took on the Postal Service and won” wars
Rosen and Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) are both taking credit for the U.S. Postal Service’s scrapping plans to move mail processing operations from Reno to Sacramento.
In a 30-second spot released last week, Rosen’s ad says she “wasn't about to let Washington bureaucrats shut down Northern Nevada's only mail processing facility.” Amodei’s ad on the issue touts “strong work by Nevada’s congressman.”
The Postal Service’s initial effort to move key mail processing operations out of Northern Nevada drew bipartisan condemnation, including a letter from Rosen, Amodei and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV).
Sam Brown, Rosen’s GOP opponent for Senate, even took credit for being “the first to raise the alarm” on the move (he posted on X the day before the congressional letter was sent).
While it’s unclear what exactly tipped the scales, Congress does not have official authority over the Postal Service, as it’s overseen by the independent Postal Regulatory Commission.
TREND WE’RE FOLLOWING: National Republican Senatorial Committee
Last week, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) — the biggest Republican spender in the Senate race — pulled down about $7 million worth of October ad reservations.
The move is part of a shift in strategy from independent expenditures to joint ad buys with Sam Brown’s campaign — cheaper, given that the group can pay the candidate rate, but somewhat clunky, because they have to give equal time to a national message as the Senate race.
Thus far, we have not seen those joint ad buys come in. For now, there is $18.5 million more in Rosen-aligned future ad buys than Brown has.
ONE OTHER TIDBIT
- Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom aired its first Spanish ad last week in favor of Ballot Question 6, which proposes amending the state Constitution to protect abortion. The ad, which will run on Univision and Telemundo, features Angeles, a middle-aged woman who needed a life-saving abortion after doctors found a tumor in her womb. The ballot measure was endorsed by Hispanics in Politics last week.
— Eric Neugeboren, Gabby Birenbaum and Isabella Aldrete
The Lightning Round
🗳️One heck of a typo — The Nevada Appeal reported that voters in Carson City received mail ballots mistakenly listing Northern Nevada Congressional District 2 candidate Lynn Chapman as a Democrat instead of a member of the Independent American Party. As of Monday morning, the Carson City clerk had not responded to the paper's request for more details.
💰Adelson, White holding Trump fundraiser — GOP megadonor Miriam Adelson and UFC CEO Dana White are holding a fundraiser for Trump on Friday night, with tickets starting at $1 million.
— Tabitha Mueller and Eric Neugeboren
Looking Ahead
- Tuesday, Oct. 8: Vice presidential hopeful Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) is holding a Reno campaign fundraiser and rally for the Harris campaign. Last month, the campaign postponed Walz’s rally because of a wildfire in the region.
- Tuesday, Oct. 8: Trump campaign hosts a get-out-the-vote rally in Henderson with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) to encourage early voting.
- Thursday, Oct. 10: Univision hosts a town hall with Vice President Kamala Harris in Las Vegas.
— Gabby Birenbaum and Tabitha Mueller
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- One hill to die on: The Associated Press is wrong on this one.
- At least there will always be memes …
- That’s one law that didn’t stick around.
We’ll see you Thursday.
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Editor’s note: This story appears in Indy Elections, The Nevada Independent’s newsletter dedicated to comprehensive coverage of the 2024 elections. Sign up for the newsletter here.