Poll: Nevada Latinos backing Harris, but margin with Trump closer than in 2020

Vice President Kamala Harris now holds a 23 percentage point lead over former President Donald Trump among registered Hispanic voters in Nevada, according to a new poll released Thursday by Latino advocacy nonprofit UnidosUS. 

The poll found that Nevada Latinos significantly trust Democrats on priority issues such as the economy and health care over Republicans. The poll found that only 34 percent of Nevada Latinos support Trump, echoing other polls that have found Harris is winning over Nevada's Latinos, now almost in line with President Joe Biden's 26 percentage point lead with the state's Latinos in the 2020 election, according to exit polls. 

Back in 2020, another UnidosUS poll showed Biden won 75 percent of Nevada Latinos — indicating a much tighter margin this time around. 

Polling for the state's U.S. Senate race also remains consistent. UnidosUS found 55 percent of Latinos support Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) compared to the 24 percent in favor of Republican candidate Sam Brown.

"Nevada represents much more than just its six electoral college votes," Rafael Collazo, director of political affairs at UnidosUS, said during a Thursday press conference. "Latino voters in Nevada will determine who wins the White House, the U.S. Senate and who controls Congress." 

Making up roughly 1 in 5 of the state's eligible voters, Latino voters are a crucial voting bloc in the state. As the presidential campaign has entered its final months, Harris and Trump have ramped up efforts to woo Nevada Latinos, making direct overtures to the Culinary Union Local 226, of which 54 percent of the members identify as Latino, and making campaign stops in majority Latino neighborhoods.

The poll surveyed 2,800 eligible Latino voters across eight battleground states, including Nevada, from Aug. 5 to 23. Three hundred of those respondents were in Nevada. The poll was conducted via 25 percent via live calls and 75 percent via web-to-text in English and Spanish. The margin of error was 1.8 percent for the whole eight state survey, and 5.7 percent for Nevada. 

As in other states, Latinos in Nevada are most concerned about economic issues, principally inflation, the economy and health care costs, according to the poll. It also found that an overwhelming number of Latinos support continued abortion access (70 percent to 22 percent). 

The survey also found that 61 percent of Nevada Latinos "strongly support" raising the minimum wage for all workers, and that 59 percent want "adequate school funding."  

Despite the demographic making up a sizable chunk of the state's electorate, 53 percent of poll respondents said that they have not been contacted by a political campaign. For those contacted, 25 percent said Democratic candidates reached out to them and 14 percent said they were contacted by Republicans.

The voter registration gap is one of the "greatest opportunities" for candidates, noted Clarissa Martinez, vice president of the UnidosUS Latino Vote Initiative. 

More than 20 percent of Latinos in Nevada will be voting in their first presidential election this year, and 37 percent of the state's Latino population is new since the 2016 election, representing a great opportunity for outreach, said Martinez. But even if support doesn't increase, last month a report from the polling firm Equis found Democrats have "some wiggle room." 

"Minimize the impact of the Latino Nevada community at your own peril," Collazo said.

This story was updated on 9/13/24 at 4:29 p.m. to correct Rafael Collazo's, director of political affairs at UnidosUS, last name.