What eight last-minute trips to Nevada reveal about the 2028 presidential race

NORTH LAS VEGAS — Inside the Culinary Academy of Las Vegas, roughly 200 attendees buzzed in anticipation. Even Attorney General Aaron Ford (D), locked in one of the tightest gubernatorial races in the country, made a surprise appearance. He called the rally's special guest "a great American." He appeared to be having a blast. 

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's (D-NY) star power was obvious — whether she'll turn it into a presidential bid is anyone's guess. 

If she does, she'll fit right in here.

"Whenever I'm here in Las Vegas, I feel it's so personal to me because not only are we working people, but we do a lot of similar kinds of work," she said, invoking her bartender past. "When someone tells me that everyday working people don't understand politics, I tell them that actually the working class understands it better than almost anyone in this country."

Ocasio-Cortez was one of eight potential Democratic presidential candidates to visit Nevada in the two weeks before the midterms. The shadow primary has already started, and it reveals who is likely to run, who is best positioned and the stump speeches and strategies each could use to win in the second nominating state for Democrats. 

An obvious sign of their interest is their effort to impress Culinary Workers Union Local 226 Secretary-Treasurer Ted Pappageorge. Every Democrat who comes to town wants to talk to him. 

"In Nevada, you got to walk the walk," he said. "If you can win in Nevada, you can win in this country, and we're talking about big tent Democrats."

At Ocasio-Cortez's rally, the tent billowed. Babies bounced. Seniors stood. Several voters who spoke to The Nevada Independent said they heard about the event on TikTok. Cynthia Garrido, a 28-year-old teacher, said AOC was the whole reason she showed up and she's inspired by her success as a young Latina. Crystal Thomas, a 47-year-old psychiatric case worker, praised the congresswoman for standing up for what she believes in the face of opposition. A middle-aged white man exclaimed that it's the first time he's met a Democratic member of Congress. 

Real estate professional Gregg Shaft and his wife don't usually go to these things. 

"Honestly, we're not very political in general," the 48-year-old said. "But for the last decade or so, we've been watching AOC more and more and I know that she's got a good message right now that we're a little bit more excited to hear." 

That day, Ocasio-Cortez was campaigning with Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV), who also joined last year's Fight Oligarchy tour. The crowd cheered for his "No Tax on Policy" as opposed to what she called President Donald Trump's "scam kind." 

She has been choosy about events. She can afford to be. Her presence is prized, even in battlegrounds, a fact that has started to worry Republicans.

A black Suburban whisked the lawmakers to a nearby Culinary Health Center. Asked by The Nevada Independent how involved she's been with the state's congressional races, she didn't mention the three nominees in tougher seats. 

"Congressman Horsford and I have been working together for, what, eight years now?" she said. "Over time, he has built out the organizing ground out here in Nevada, slowly building up the base of voters who are not just the voters that existed five, 10, 15 years ago. His commitment has been in expanding the voter base and turning out voters from electorates that historically weren't always turning out in every election." 

She called it "a model" for the country, adding, "As elections get tighter and tighter, increasingly, what shifts the outcomes are non-voters choosing to vote." 

It sounded like a hint about how she'd win a crowded primary.

Not Donald Trump

The 2028 Democratic presidential field is expected to be packed, and no one can say for sure who will jump in. But visits to Las Vegas to take questions from the dean of the Nevada press corp, Nevada Independent CEO Jon Ralston, sent a strong signal.

Four potential candidates attended IndyFest at the Fontainebleau Las Vegas, where they massaged their messages. 

The first was Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), blessed with a Southern twang and leadership of a state Trump won by 30 points. His good guy brand centers on his Christian faith — he has a new book on the subject — and spending 80 percent of his time on things that matter to 100 percent of people. 

His national ambitions come through in his policy dreams: a federal housing investment he will detail at "a point in the future" and free pre-K for all 4-year-olds. He wants a "fix the darn country constitutional amendment" to outlaw partisan gerrymandering, impose term limits, overturn Citizens United, ban stock trading for federal officials and implement direct elections of the president and vice president.

"If people are looking for the Democratic version of Donald Trump, I'm not it, and I won't be, and I'm not their guy," he said. The governor does not "want the Donald Trump presidency normalized."

Beshear's implicit promise is similar to the one Joe Biden won on: that he can mend fences with the very voters who put Trump into power. After all, he vacations with them in the Florida panhandle. He ran out an anecdote about how he braced himself when a man approached him after his controversial veto of an anti-LGBTQ+ bill, only to receive a handshake.

But Beshear also has some fight. 

"I'd impeach Pete Hegseth tomorrow," he said. "I'd impeach RFK Jr. tomorrow." 

He was less direct on issues sure to be sticking points in a Democratic presidential primary. He knows the question of whether Israel is committing genocide is "a litmus test" and refused to give a yes or no answer.  

On Medicare for All, he said he worries that fast implementation would cost millions of jobs and instead pivoted to talking about negotiating lower drug prices from Medicare and Medicaid. 

"I admit, I am a more practical candidate," he said.

He defended the Democratic Governors Association's limited investment in the Texas governor's race. As its leader, which he said "has its pluses — and now a few minuses," he has gotten flack about Texas from Latino groups. 

"We have a size 10 budget and a size 16 map," he said. "My overall goal can't be about my future."

Still, he was sure to mention how the organization is getting out Latino voters in Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico.  

All over Nevada

Then there's Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA). Though he hasn't moved up much in early 2028 primary polls, success could hinge on a strong performance in an early state. Nevada, for instance.

He has visited the state far more than any other possible candidate. There'd be little other reason for a California member of Congress to go to Elko and Ely. He loves Tacos El Gordo. While the others onstage left to campaign with Ford, the governor hopeful, he's been there, done that. Later, he had plans to meet state legislators. His press team is unusually proactive.

"It's no secret that I'm exploring a presidential run, and it's a way to test out whether my ideas are resonating," he said the next day in Reno.

The congressman said he prides himself on telling it like it is. He is just as tired as reporters are of "politicians saying, 'I believe in good jobs and renewing the American dream.'" 

"I believe the people who have been in charge of this party are out of touch with where the base is," Khanna said. "They're out of touch on Gaza. They're out of touch on taxing billionaires. They're out of touch on Medicare for All. They're out of touch on abolishing ICE. They're out of touch in terms of taking the fight to the president." 

"Look, I'm not going to be the most charismatic guy," he added. 

But he has other things to offer. For one, blunt advice for a more rizzful rival who opposes a state-level wealth tax: "[California Gov.] Gavin Newsom should stop shilling for his billionaire donors." For another, helping release the Epstein files and embodying the public's anger at Middle East wars and young people's economic struggles.

"I'm one of the only people who didn't get booed in the commencement speeches this year," he said in Reno. 

A visit from a neighbor 

There's Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ). His profile rose last year after he said servicemembers shouldn't follow illegal orders and Trump suggested he should be jailed or executed. But he's not sure about a presidential bid. He and his wife, former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ), have already been through a lot. 

The audience held its breath as he recounted the aftermath of her 2011 attempted assassination, hearing media outlets mistakenly report that she had died. Weeks after she got out of a coma from the gunshot wound to the head, she took him into the hospital bathroom. 

"I've never experienced anything like that before," he said. "Just the terror and the panic in her voice when she realized she was trapped. I told her we would get through this without really knowing if we would." 

That experience deepened his compassion for other Americans facing hard times. The day he was in Nevada, his 5-year-old granddaughter did her first active shooter drill in school. 

Impeaching Trump again, he said, would be "a distraction." He wants Democrats to offer better solutions on housing affordability and restore Medicare for people kicked off through Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill. Does he support Medicare for All? 

"I support fixing the system and getting more people covered," he said.

He has pressed Israel on using weapons that were more deadly than necessary while avoiding the term "genocide."

"If it's going to take you 10 years to do it a different way, a way where you avoid the civilian casualties, well, that's what you got to do," he said. "I've dropped bombs on things, a lot of times. We were always concerned about what the collateral damage would be."

He criticized Hegseth as "the most unqualified secretary of defense this country has ever seen."

"The stuff he focuses on: how people look, the haircuts, the no beardos and weirdo thing, the testosterone, the working out all the time," he said. "No offense to junior officers in the military, but that's the job of a junior officer. That's not the job of the secretary of defense." 

Kelly is one of the most requested campaign trail surrogates. If the blue wave crests high enough, he thinks even South Carolina's Senate seat could flip. His leadership PAC has given to all four of Nevada's congressional candidates. 

After attendees rushed him for photos, he bolted. He left behind challenge coins for his interviewers. On one side is his name and a space suit in front of a field of stars. The other features the Arizona flag, a Naval astronaut insignia and the words, "United States Navy" and "Don't give up the ship."

The Silver State strategist  

Rahm Emanuel was where he's comfortable: backstage. Though he's since been a presidential adviser and chief of staff, a member of Congress, mayor of Chicago and ambassador to Japan, he still talks like an operative. Immediately, he inquired about Northern Nevada's congressional race. 

The centrist Emanuel has already laid out so many policy plans that there's little new to say. But he still barely registers in polls — onstage, he and Khanna brush their low numbers off by suggesting the worst political position at this moment is front-runner. 

Though he's the quintessential Washington insider, Emanuel said, "We've had 12 years of presidents trying to restore a past that's not coming back." 

He's been right before, predicting the nature of the second Trump presidency — and Democrats' subsequent messaging.

"I said, 'Mark my words, corruption is going to be the defining brand of this administration,'" he recalled. "You cannot have capitalism when you don't have the rule of law."

He said Democrats are going to win red districts with help from old school Republicans. Asked if former Assm. Teresa Benitez Thompson (D-Reno) can flip the deep red 2nd Congressional District, he drew out an "ummm" and blinked repeatedly. You could see the wheels turning. 

"Yes," he finally said. "I mean it's a tough, tough, tough district, but you have the right year, right candidate, wrong candidate on the Republican side, an affordable media market, so, yeah."

Emanuel connects with her every week. He was key in getting her added to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Red to Blue program, which backed her in the final stretch. If she wins, he may deserve more than a little credit.

Is the future female?

Other potential candidates are making fewer trips to Nevada and giving less access to the media, though that doesn't mean they won't run. And even in 2026, they still have some Nevada must-dos.

Chief among that group is former Vice President Kamala Harris. Though many insiders are squeamish about her making another bid after her 2024 loss, she leads early primary polls. There is a notable KHive in the Silver State, which has the fifth-highest share of female voters in the nation. 

Rosanna Cattalina Ordóñez, who attended the AOC rally, enjoyed seeing Harris before. 

"I think women are better leaders because we are able to control our emotions," the 40-year-old said. 

This month, Harris made a pilgrimage to Culinary Union headquarters. There, she previewed how she might embrace gender in a Democratic primary.

"You are so important to working people," she told members. "Because of your work, there are two women senators in the state of Nevada. Because of your work, you have the first state Legislature in the country that is majority women."

Lizette Loya, a union member who works at Caesar's Palace, told The Indy that she would vote for Harris if she ran again. 

"I was very excited when they told me that she was coming," Loya said.

Another prominent woman in the 2028 conversation, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) recently made her first Nevada trip of the year.

At a rally for an abortion rights ballot measure on UNLV's campus, Whitmer said that she will discuss her decision in "a few weeks." 

Winning back Latinos 

Three days after AOC left Las Vegas, Horsford entertained yet another potential president. 

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) was swinging through the state as part of his effort to turn out working class Latino voters. Latinos, who moved toward Trump two years ago, could be a key part of any potential Gallego for President coalition and make up about 20 percent of Nevada's electorate. 

"We can't have a national agenda unless Nevada is on the side of Democrats," Gallego told The Nevada Independent.

The Arizona senator and the Nevada congressman sat together at a long table inside Casa El Desayuno, a Mexican breakfast joint owned by a DREAMer. The event was aimed at Latino veterans, but the attendees at the table were diverse. They all seemed to know Horsford. 

Gallego smoothly dunked his concha in his traditional Mexican coffee. He answered questions about Camp Lejeune and veteran homelessness as if he was talking with friends. If you closed your eyes, you might not be able to tell which voice at the table was the senator's. 

His background, he said, equips him to turn out the voters he's targeting, but also to call "out frauds like [GOP House candidate David] Flippo, someone that is absolutely engaging in stolen valor and is just not a trustworthy person."

The senator first heard about the controversy in the 2nd Congressional District from another vet.

"It really enraged me because I served with some guys that did some really scary stuff, and they barely got a pat on their back," he said.

That same day, Gallego caught a flight to Northern Nevada to campaign with Flippo's Democratic opponent, Benitez-Thompson, who told The Nevada Independent he was particularly helpful in reaching Spanish speakers.

Together, they ate more Mexican food.

Sparks resident Elvira Diaz, who is in her early 60s, has "other candidates" in mind for the presidency, namely Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), whose charisma she admired in 2020. He was in Nevada earlier this fall.

"I like Gallego," she told The Nevada Independent, "but I don't know him. I just met him today. I need to learn more."

She may see him again soon.

"We've gotten a lot of invites to come back," Gallego said. "We'll have to look at that."

Kate Reynolds, Piper Heath and Isabella Aldrete contributed to this story.