After a midterm drubbing, who can save Nevada Republicans in 2028?

In today's edition: Is Nevada's Republican bench completely gone? Plus: Final race calls, the chance the 2nd Congressional District will stay blue and the best ad of 2026.

Last week's midterms were a historic drubbing for the GOP. Since Tuesday, Republicans have been pointing fingers and panicking about how they'll recover.

But I'm reminded of 2024, when Democrats were in a similar position. On election night, I was at Vice President Kamala Harris' celebration in Washington. Of course, it ended up not being much of a celebration at all. She didn't show until the next morning, when a dour crowd at Howard University worried their party was unfixable.

In the two years since then, Democrats have not exactly repaired their reputation. But they are celebrating nonetheless. The lesson, to me, is not that one party is sitting pretty. It's that if anyone wants to hold onto power, they actually need to deliver something to the American people.

We know election season never really ends, but we'll be taking a brief break before next cycle kicks off in earnest. Come January, we'll be back in your inbox to cover the 2028 presidential contest. 

We want to hear from you! Email your newsletter editor Mini Racker at [email protected]. 

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Photo finishes

Mail ballots can still be counted through Tuesday, but we are finally able to call Nevada's remaining races:

• In Assembly District 22, Democrat Shenea Booth unseated Assm. Melissa Hardy (R-Las Vegas), by about six dozen votes as of Monday. It's the first time the seat has gone blue since 1998. That means Democrats will hold 32 of 42 Assembly seats.
• Sparks Mayor Ed Lawson lost to winery owner Wendi Rawson, ending his six-year tenure leading the city.
• Reno City Councilmember Meghan Ebert lost to 25-year-old taqueria owner Eddie Gomez. Ebert was down about 60 votes on Monday.
• Former Reno police officer Marie Rodriguez (D) defeated Jon Killoran (R) in the open Washoe County Commission District 2 seat. Her win ensures Democrats will have a 4-1 majority on the commission, the first time they have held a majority of seats on the commission.
• Pete Goicoechea, a former Republican lawmaker who served in the Legislature for 22 years, will retain his Board of Regents seat. He won by less than 2,000 votes over Lori Lane, who has worked in the entertainment industry for 25 years.
• Clark County District Court Judge Jacob Reynolds secured re-election, staving off county prosecutor Alex Quagge.

— Eric "Numbers" Neugeboren

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Holding out for a GOP hero?

As The Boss recently opined on our election recap show, the decimation of Nevada's GOP bench is one major storyline of 2026 — and of 2028.

"I don't know who the big thinkers are in that party right now, but they better get together and come up with an idea," he said. 

Many longtime Republican operatives we spoke to pointed to Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) as the person building up the party's bench by supporting moderate Republican candidates. Now he's out of office.

Greg Bailor, a Republican political consultant in Nevada, said this is a moment for the party to press reset. Another longtime Republican strategist, who wished to remain anonymous, said the party didn't have much of a bench to begin with. 

A third was more optimistic, pointing out that then-Sen. Paul Laxalt (R-NV) was one of only two Republican senators elected in the U.S. in 1974, following the Watergate scandal and subsequent Democratic wave. 

"I wouldn't say the Republican Party is now a museum exhibit," the strategist said. "This pendulum, I've seen it come back and forth all the time."

Republicans do have some options.

In the Legislature, eight state senators are Republicans, and State Sens. Robin Titus (R-Wellington), Lori Rogich (R-Las Vegas) and John Steinbeck (R-Las Vegas) are three names to watch for higher office. The state Assembly will have 10 Republicans. In local government, Washoe County District Attorney-elect Wes Duncan (R), Washoe County Commissioner Clara Andriola (R), Clark County Commissioner April Becker (R) and a few Republicans on city councils and in mayoral seats are in the mix.

The Boss has highlighted former Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison (R) as a possible U.S. Senate candidate in 2028. 

One of the Republican strategists said people who don't currently hold office may be enticed to run, as former Gov. Kenny Guinn (R) did in 1996. Then an unknown candidate, Guinn was jokingly called "Kenny of 1,000 days."

"He's kind of a unicorn, but there are people out there that can start to appeal to disaffected, disgruntled Republican voters," the strategist said.

A few also mentioned Caleb Cage, a U.S. Army veteran and former state employee who served under multiple governors from both parties and is now a lobbyist. Others brought up Peter Guzman, president of the Latin Chamber of Commerce, and those who've stepped out of office, including former state Sens. Scott Hammond (R-Las Vegas) and Ben Kieckhefer (R-Reno).

Outgoing Controller Andy Matthews (R) is one to watch, though in a Monday interview with The Indy, he said he had no regrets about passing on a bid in the 2nd Congressional District and no immediate plans to run for office again.

"I'm going to certainly take some time with my family, and we'll give some thoughts on what the future holds," he said. "As of right now. I don't have any intentions to run for any office in 2028. … I will certainly always keep an open mind. I always say that I'm always going to do whatever I think I need to be doing to best advance the principles that I believe in, and that that hasn't changed. If at some point that's elected office again, then I'll certainly explore that when the time comes."

Some also say they could see outgoing Assm. Lisa Cole (R-Las Vegas) and outgoing Assm. Melissa Hardy (R-Henderson) returning to Nevada politics. 

"There's not a savior who will arise from the ashes," Bailor, the former Republican National Committee state director and former Republican Party executive director, said. "There's a desperate need for candidate recruitment and training that the Republican Party does not have."

— Tabitha Mueller and Mini Racker

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Can CD2 stay blue?

Government affairs veteran Mike Pieper, who served as chief of staff to former Northern Nevada Rep. Barbara Vucanovich (R-NV) and ran her re-election campaigns, said he always thought the 2nd Congressional District could flip.

"It was always interesting to me how afraid the Democrats were of really ever mounting a serious challenge," he told The Indy. "There's so many districts that kind of fly under the radar until there's a huge national wave."

The year the Democrats got the closest to unseating Vucanovich, 1992, had a lot in common with 2026. 

"There was just this backlash," said Pieper. "It was not against the president so much as against incumbents and there was all these scandals in the House that year. … Honestly, I still think we could have been beat if the Democrats actually spent some money."

Early in the cycle, it had seemed so likely the GOP would cruise to victory that Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) helped Vucanovich secure a key union endorsement, Pieper said. Reid was running for re-election and wanted to drive down Republican turnout.

"He didn't want us to have a race and spend money, so he honestly helped us," Pieper said. "In the end, I think he was sorry he did it, because then the environment just changed."

This cycle, Pieper, who calls himself a "never-Trumper," said he thinks even Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) may have lost. He also thinks Democrats could hold onto the seat even without a wave, especially by focusing on winning Washoe Republicans. 

"In some ways it's less conservative than Clark County, outside of the city of Vegas," Pieper said. "A lot of Washoe County people come from California, so they kind of bring a California mindset with them."

— Mini Racker

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What we're reading and writing

It all came down to turnout.

The inside story of how TBT made history.

In the room where it happens.

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Indy Ad Watch: The best ad of 2026?

Rep.-elect Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D-NV) pulled off one of the most impressive victories in Nevada history this year. One ad in particular helped. 

"Fraud" slammed small-business owner David Flippo (R), highlighting scandals around his military record and finances, as well as "our own Republican congressman" calling him a fraud. 

"Teresa did a really good job on pouncing and driving the message home," a GOP strategist told us after the election. "I think her ad with the veteran direct-to-camera was really, really good." 

Per AdImpact, her campaign spent $200,000 on the ad and earned 19 million impressions, the bulk of them in Reno, where she trounced her opponent. 

— Mini Racker

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Mini Series: Chair thee well, DMM

🪑New chair, who dis? —  At Democrats' victory party Wednesday, North Las Vegas Mayor-elect Daniele Monroe-Moreno said her time leading the state Democratic Party is over: "I will not be running for re-election, but I know there's some amazing people that have come to me, and they want to run," Monroe-Moreno told reporters. 

• According to the group's charter, elections are held at the first meeting of each odd year, which will be in March 2027 when Monroe-Moreno's term ends. The Nevada Democratic Party's State Central Committee (SCC) will choose the next chair. The 146 members of the SCC are elected for every 1,000 Democrats in each county and will gather in Pahrump this spring. 

🕰️ Last in the nation — When a panel of Democrats opted against making Nevada's presidential primary first in the nation earlier this year, one of their hesitations was how long the state can take to release results. Tuesday didn't help. 

• Due to state law, Nevada can't report results until the last voter has voted, and this year, that didn't happen until nearly midnight in Clark County. Even Alaska and Hawaii began reporting results before the Silver State.
• In 2024, the last voters cast their ballots around 9:30 p.m. in Nye County. In 2022, Washoe County residents cast the last votes around 9:20 p.m. 
• Monroe-Moreno said the fact that results came in minutes after polls closed meant she had no worries about how the delay might impact the state's spot on the primary calendar.

— Oona Milliken and Mini Racker

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Looking Ahead

• Monday, Feb. 1, 2027 — The Nevada Legislature convenes
• Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2028  — Nevada holds its presidential primary

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A post that caught our eye: 

It was a late night.

We'll see you next year. 

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