Does Teresa Benitez-Thompson stand a chance in deep red Northern Nevada?

History suggests that small-business owner David Flippo (R) should cruise to Congress in November. 

A Democrat has never represented Nevada's 2nd Congressional District, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by nearly 71,000 and nonpartisans by 22,000.

And the Republican nominee certainly seems confident, as Flippo's already been texting sitting Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) about making the transition after winning the GOP primary three months ago.

But over the summer, signs have hinted that the Democratic nominee, former Assembly Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D-Reno) — or "TBT," as many in the district call her — could hold her own. 

The polished social worker and one-time pageant queen has been criss-crossing the district for months, trying to earn votes even in the most rural counties. National elections forecasters and Democratic groups have deemed the race a possible pick-up opportunity, especially after Amodei publicly shunned Flippo and an internal poll found Benitez-Thompson within striking distance. 

"The amount of interest in this campaign has grown by leaps and bounds," Benitez-Thompson told The Nevada Independent in an interview late last month. "We just have an incredible amount of momentum, a strong wind at our back."

The latest good news for her is a poll from a group tied to Democrats — shared exclusively with The Nevada Independent — that shows Benitez-Thompson leading Flippo in the district.

That finding is hard to believe. The Cook Political Report classifies the district's Partisan Voting Index as R+7, making it one of the country's lighter red Republican seats on paper. But the GOP has often overperformed here, regularly winning by 14 points. President Donald Trump cleaned up in the district in all of the past three presidential elections. Even in 2020, when huge swaths of the country shifted towards Democrats, Trump won the seat by 10 points. 

Plus, numerous Nevada Republicans have come around to Flippo this summer. The biggest name on that list is Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), who appears well-positioned for re-election and could buoy downballot Republicans.  

"David Flippo is going to win, with endorsements coming from the Police Unions, Chamber of Commerce, NRA, Builders Alliance, and Governor Lombardo all in the last few weeks," Rory McShane, Flippo's general consultant, wrote in a statement to The Nevada Independent. "All prediction markets have Flippo over 70% chance to win — for one simple reason, voters are looking into Teresa Benitez-Thompson's record." 

But a 70 percent chance for Flippo means Benitez-Thompson's odds are much better than zero. 

New poll shows Benitez-Thompson leading 

A new poll bolsters her case.

The survey from political strategy firm GBAO commissioned for the Nevada Alliance found Benitez-Thompson leading Flippo, 38 percent to 37 percent, with Independent American Party candidate Lynn Chapman earning 14 percent of the vote. 

The poll surveyed 500 likely voters and was conducted between Aug. 31 and Sept. 3. It also found Benitez-Thompson with plus-10 favorability, while Flippo's favorability was 10 points underwater. 

The results come with caveats. For one, the poll includes a "none of the above" option, a choice that does not exist in the race. For another, among those surveyed, 48 percent voted for Trump in 2024, compared to 40 percent who voted for Harris. In reality, the district backed Trump by 14 points in 2024.

Plus, those behind the poll have reason to boost Benitez-Thompson. The Nevada Alliance is a dark money group aligned with Democrats, while GBAO counts prominent Democratic senators and party committees among its clients.

Still, the poll doesn't present a completely rosy picture for Democrats. It found Lombardo leading Attorney General Aaron Ford (D), 53 percent to 38 percent, a 15-point lead that matches the president's performance in the district and Republicans' voter registration edge. It also showed a generic ballot test in the district comparing "the Democratic candidate" to "the Republican candidate" with the Republican leading, 48 percent to 42 percent. 

"A few surprises in wave elections" 

Statistician and political analyst Nate Silver forecasts the 2nd Congressional District more likely to flip than all three of Southern Nevada's traditional battlegrounds.

"Our model is skeptical," he wrote in an email to The Nevada Independent, "but it gives her a plausible, outside chance. For Benitez-Thompson, it's probably less about any factors local to the district than the national environment getting even worse for Republicans, such as because of a continued rise in gas prices. This seat flipping would be a surprise, but there are usually a few surprises in wave elections." 

Last month, Inside Elections shifted the district's rating from "solid" to "likely Republican," the first time the nonpartisan publication has classified it as anything other than ruby red since before Amodei was elected. 

Inside Elections Deputy Editor Jacob Rubashkin made it clear that the change shouldn't lift Democrats' spirits too high.

"This isn't a coin flip," he told The Nevada Independent. "Sometimes people feel like we've got two ratings, and those are 'solid' and 'toss-up,' and if you're not in one, you're in the other, and that is not a philosophy we subscribe to."

But Rubashkin said that the worsening national environment for the GOP, Amodei's continued distaste for Flippo and limited polling data "together paints the picture of a race that we felt was no longer kind of a slam dunk for Republicans."

He said that the presence of a third-party candidate on the ballot could act as an outlet for Republicans frustrated with their nominee, and the race is likely to get interesting if Chapman earns a percentage of the vote in the high single digits. He also pointed to an internal poll from the Benitez-Thompson campaign showing her trailing Flippo by three points. 

UNR political science Associate Professor Jeremy Gelman was skeptical. 

"Campaign-sponsored polls that are released to the public should be taken with so much grains of salt that your cardiologist would be concerned," he said. "It's a single PDF that reports the top line, and it doesn't show how they weighted the data." 

Republicans for TBT?

Benitez-Thompson is a careful, composed speaker who has lived in Northern Nevada for four decades and is well-liked — even across party lines. She's maintained that reputation her entire career, from when she placed fourth in Miss America in her 20s, to her time as a social worker, to her tenure as a party leader in the state Assembly, to her most recent role as chief of staff to Ford. 

She is known for doing her homework and talking to everyone. Though she has advocated for traditional Democratic priorities, such as reproductive rights and protecting immigrant communities, she has focused her campaign on lowering costs and bringing funds back to Nevada.        

Winning would require her to earn support outside the traditional Democratic base — a factor she's keenly aware of.

"We're spending the most amount of time engaging with nonpartisans," she said. 

She has attended 41 community events since winning the primary, including more than a dozen trips outside of the district's bluest county, Washoe, and more than 15 events focused on nonpartisans in particular. At those events, she said they have been hyperfocused on local issues such as data centers, public land and water issues.

"I know that dyed-in-the-wool Republicans and MAGA are not people who are going to be interested in the community-based type of conversations I want to have about Northern Nevada needs," she said. 

But that hasn't stopped her from converting some voters across the aisle. On Sept. 25, a bipartisan group, including Dale Erquiaga, once chief of staff to former Gov. Brian Sandoval (R), will host a fundraiser for her. Other notable supporters include former Assm. James Oscarson (R-Pahrump), and government-affairs-types Sean Gamble, Rebecca Wagner, Pete Etchart, Steven Tackes and Jaron Hildebrand.

Among the hosts of the upcoming fundraiser is retired lobbyist Susan Fisher, who describes herself as someone who "came out of the womb a Republican" and is still registered as one. She voted for former state Sen. James Settelmeyer (R-Minden) in the GOP primary — and would have voted for him again if he made it to the general — but has previously worked with Benitez-Thompson on legislative issues.

"She always had an open door, even when she was majority leader," Fisher told The Nevada Independent. "She was as bipartisan as you could get. She's being painted as a socialist — just because she was a social worker years ago doesn't make her a socialist. … If she didn't like one of my bills, she'd say, 'Well, let's figure out how we can make it so that I can support it, or at least not vote against it.'" 

Her perspective on Flippo, who had been running for a Southern Nevada seat, is very different. 

"I was absolutely not going to vote for someone who moved here just a month or two before the primary," she said. "I view him as a carpetbagger." 

Some of her Republican friends have told her they will secretly support Benitez-Thompson. Others will "hold their noses" to vote for Flippo. Will Amodei?

It's unclear which path the district's current Republican representative might take. Amodei has at various times said he would endorse neither Flippo nor Benitez-Thompson and noted that Chapman is on the ballot as well.

Asked if she had connected with the congressman, Benitez-Thompson demurred. 

"I've been talking with a lot of folks," she said. 

Local and national investment

The candidates won't be required to disclose how much they have raised and spent this summer until October. But other Federal Election Commission filings show that all of the Democrats in the states' federal delegation have given to Benitez-Thompson through their leadership PACs, including max-out donations from the senators, who are not on the ballot this year. 

"You can look at the number of people from within the district who are donating and supporting this race," Benitez-Thompson said. "It is grassroots."

She said she has more than 1,000 donations from within the district and more than 1,000 yard signs out on display. 

Flippo, on the other hand, largely self-funded his primary victory, loaning his campaign more than $1.6 million. 

"We have no clarity on his ability to self-fund any more than he did in the primary," Rubashkin said, noting that Flippo has not filed a personal financial disclosure. 

That particularly troubles Fisher, who has requested an investigation into the matter. The House Clerk's website, which generally makes financial disclosures and requests for extensions available to the public, lists no documents for Flippo, even for his 2024 congressional bid. The disclosures were legally due months or years ago, but enforcement is weak. Flippo's campaign has told other outlets he has requested an extension while putting his financial holdings in a blind trust.

So far, neither side has appeared to invest much in the general election. 

"Fom what I can tell, neither Flippo nor Benitez-Thompson have made big ad buys," said Gelman. "Neither have the parties. Neither have Super PACs. I think a lot of folks are looking at all of the House races nationally … and not putting this race in that column yet. … It may just be sort of waiting to see where the political environment lands in the next few weeks to see how much investment to actually put in this race."

The DCCC added the seat to its list of Districts in Play last month. That inclusion signals interest and access to party infrastructure, such as staff resources, strategic guidance and candidate training, though it does not come with a hard cash commitment. In a statement to The Nevada Independent, DCCC spokesperson Lindsay Reilly said voters know Benitez-Thompson for her bipartisan record and will "enthusiastically send her to Congress."

Read more: Where do the candidates in Northern Nevada's 2nd Congressional District stand on the issues?

There's still time for outside groups to invest money, and some of them are watching the race closely. Jack Pratt, senior political director at EDF Action, the advocacy arm of the Environmental Defense Fund, is one of them. 

"When the wave breaks … it sweeps up districts that surprise people," Pratt said. "This is the kind that's just on the edge there."

As EDF Action and its partners plan to invest $15 million to expand the electoral map, Pratt said the district is on the group's radar, especially given the water and clean energy issues in Northern Nevada. He said he expects the seat to be one that "breaks late" and that a decision about whether more money would tip it could come closer to Election Day.

Other national players are paying attention, too. A month ago, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a possible 2028 presidential candidate, came to Reno to campaign with Benitez-Thompson.

"It's just validating that at the national level, people are starting to see what we've been experiencing all summer," she said. "People don't want a generic MAGA candidate dropped into a community."

"Best shot that the Democrats ever had"

At a barbecue formal meet-and-greet aimed at nonpartisans this summer, about a dozen voters showed up to learn about Benitez-Thompson.

One of them was retired teacher and business owner Andy Markert, who described himself as a liberal-leaning registered nonpartisan. 

"Ever since Trump has been in … the polarization is on steroids," Markert said. 

Still, he believes Benitez-Thompson can overcome the environment and win supporters of different parties.

"I think this is the best shot that the Democrats ever had since I moved here," he said. "Because of the person she's running against. … I wasn't a big fan of Amodei, but at least he was born and bred in Nevada." 

In her remarks to the small crowd, Benitez-Thompson emphasized her long personal and professional history in the district. The stump speech she gave was very similar to the one she used during the primary, focused on cost of living and making sure Nevada is well-represented in Washington — with a few digs at Flippo's recent arrival sprinkled throughout.

Far from the political scene, outside a local Sprouts, longtime Reno resident Terry Clayton stopped to speak to The Nevada Independent. 

Clayton represents the midterm wave Democrats hope for.

"I haven't heard much about either candidate, but I'm a steadfast Democrat," he said. "I'll be voting for Teresa Benitez-Thompson in November, even if she was the worst candidate in the world."

Tabitha Mueller and Piper Heath contributed reporting.