How did Alexis Hill lose so big? Ford's branding, fundraising advantage led to primary landslide

Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) raised his hands and beamed from ear to ear Tuesday night at a victory party with supporters at the Culinary Union 226 headquarters in Las Vegas.

Ford, 54, had won by a landslide. He defeated his next closest competitor, Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill (D), by about 40 percentage points — including winning her home county by about 20 percentage points. 

He's now officially in the race his campaign has been running since the beginning — a nationally watched, general election matchup with formidably funded Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo.

"We are going to be dedicated to ensuring that the entire Nevada family has an opportunity not to just survive, but to thrive," Ford said in his Tuesday victory speech. "Today, we offer a fresh start for Nevada, building an economy of the people, for the people and by the people."

Hill, meanwhile, stayed out of the limelight, opting to take calls from reporters as she gathered with friends and family in Reno to privately watch the returns roll in.

"Change is hard, and movements take time," Hill said about her loss in an interview with The Nevada Independent. "Our state is broke, our local governments are broke, and we will be paying the price, whether or not we want to face it, and so I just want to get out ahead of it and actually face it and have some hard conversations."

Hill, 42, had challenged Ford by setting an ambitious vision that included raising corporate and gaming taxes and vastly expanding pre-K and social safety net programs. Despite numerous campaign stops and town halls in Southern Nevada, a vivid social media presence and a statewide tour of all 17 counties, her efforts fell far short. 

Hill attributed her loss to a mix of factors, including a lack of fundraising, voters coming to the ballot box with a preconceived notion of who would be best to square off against Lombardo in the fall and the inability of Nevada's many nonpartisans to vote in partisan primaries. 

Conversations with consultants, political insiders and professors indicate that Ford's commanding fundraising lead, name recognition, party backing and messaging strategies all contributed to the final, gaping margin of victory. The split was far wider than in the last open Democratic governor primary in 2018, when establishment favorite Steve Sisolak (D) defeated fellow Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani (D) by 11.5 percentage points.

In a statement, his campaign said "Ford's decisive primary victory reflects Nevadans' longstanding trust in him." 

Laura Martin, the executive director of the Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada (PLAN) Action, said the organization knew Ford — who had won statewide elections twice and previously served as the Senate majority leader — would have the advantage heading into the primary. But Martin said PLAN Action had endorsed Hill because of her positions on issues such as enacting rent control and taxing corporations.

She said that Ford's campaign hyper-focused on Lombardo in lieu of the primary, including ignoring Hill's call for a debate, and that she and others never received satisfying policy positions on certain issues. She's talked to voters who dislike Trump and appreciate that Ford — as he often reminds voters — has frequently stood up to the administration.

Hill's severe fundraising disadvantage also held her back in the primary. She raised $171,000 in the first quarter of the year, but the majority — $126,000 — consisted of loans from her and her husband. Her donor base did not feature any large PACs or corporations.

Ford surpassed that almost tenfold — he reported raising $1.5 million in the first three months of the year across his campaign and an affiliated Forward Nevada PAC. Between the PAC and campaign, he had more than $2.7 million in cash on hand heading into the primary.

He'll need it all as he approaches a nationally watched general election already at a big fundraising disadvantage. Lombardo raised $2.2 million from January through March and an additional $1.5 million through an affiliated political action committee called Nevada Way. His cash on hand for his PAC and campaign exceeded $14 million ahead of the primary — not to mention a pro-Lombardo dark money nonprofit, Service First Fund, which, as of Friday, has run more than $4 million in campaign ads since the start of 2025.

The factors behind Hill's 40-percentage-point loss

Jeremy Gelman, an assistant political science professor at UNR, said Ford was helped tremendously by his name recognition and the fact that he'd been on statewide ballots before. As attorney general, Gelman noted that voters would likely be more familiar with Ford than with Hill, who had run and won in just one county before. 

On the financing side, Gelman said that a lack of donors lining up suggests either a lack of institutional enthusiasm for a candidate or skepticism about their viability, and that money (through ad buys) can help build name recognition. Money isn't everything, he said, but it does help.

He added that successful insurgent campaigns typically highlight one of two things: an opponent's wrongdoing, or a clear high-profile issue in which the challenger has done tremendous work. In both cases, Gelman said Hill didn't achieve these markers.

Even on Hill's signature issues such as raising Nevada's lowest-in-the-nation gaming taxes and tackling property tax changes, Gelman said voters likely weren't paying much attention. Industries such as mining and gaming were certainly taking note, he said, but he asserted that name recognition and branding strategies likely played a much bigger role.

Knowing Ford had greater visibility, especially in Clark County, Gelman said Hill needed to take a big swing that would resonate with voters, either by attacking Ford or by championing a critical issue.

Though shifting property and gaming taxes may appear to be a big swing, he said it's a complicated tax proposal that's hard for the average voter to tie outcomes to their goals.

"To run, you need to have an impact that's really effective about sort of the thing that that person does … if you can't do that, you've got to have the issue that you're known for," he said. "I think both of those weren't there for Hill this cycle." 

As a former county commissioner who ran for governor, Giunchigliani said in an interview that most people don't fully understand what a county commissioner does. Though Hill had a good reputation, Giunchigliani said there wasn't much that Hill could talk about as far as what she had accomplished in her role that would appeal to Democratic voters throughout the state.

"I could campaign on animal rights issues, but generally, most of it doesn't bubble up. It's just day to day, 'did you fix my sidewalk,' kind of thing," Giunchigliani said. "So, when you're running a statewide campaign, if you don't have that kind of a record to at least discuss, it puts you at more of a disadvantage."

The national climate

As Democratic voters have expressed frustration with the Democratic Party — a recent New York Times/Siena poll found that they are in a "combative, anti-establishment mood" — Hill's campaign had hoped to harness that anger and propel her to victory.

Gelman noted that for all Hill talked about changing the status quo, Ford wasn't exactly a perfect foil, given his status as a relatively young person who doesn't have the same age-related concerns as those that surrounded former President Joe Biden (D) in 2024 and hasn't recently had to take unpopular votes.

Giunchigliani said Ford has some vulnerabilities in his record from his time as Senate majority leader — he's responsible for implementing the first film tax credit program in Nevada more than a decade ago — but for the most part, she agreed with Gelman. 

As for whether perceptions of Hill's chances against Lombardo played a role, Michael Green, a history professor at UNLV, said it's plausible voters were worried she wouldn't be able to win the general election because of her gender. He noted that both female Democratic nominees for president lost, and the state has never elected a female governor. 

Lombardo's most formidable foe in November, Gelman said, will be the national political climate.

Giunchigliani and others also added that Lombardo has been careful about his connection to President Donald Trump — whose waning approval ratings could drag down his own campaign — and has walked a narrow tightrope of being connected to Trump but avoiding pitfalls associated with the president.

"He's been slick enough to not be so tied to Trump without having the MAGAs get mad at him," she said.

Ford will have to reckon with criticism of his out-of-state travel and support of removing the state's right to work law, which prohibits labor unions and employers from requiring union membership for employment but has been criticized for allowing non-dues-paying workers to "freeload" off union-won benefits.

'Doesn't necessarily spell the end.'

After Hill called Ford to concede on Tuesday, she told The Nevada Independent that she and Ford would get coffee together. 

She added that she's far from done and plans to carry on her goals in her capacity as Washoe County commissioner.

"I'm going to continue to push even my own party," she said in a separate statement. "Institutions fail when you're not holding them to the higher expectation of what they should be doing."

Though some may think Hill's loss spelled trouble for progressives in Nevada, Giunchigliani disagrees. She said that, as a whole, progressive candidates faced funding challenges, but got more votes than expected, even winning some legislative primaries.

Giunchigliani called it "incremental validation," showing future potential. She said Hill gained significant name recognition during the primary. 

"I would imagine we'll hear from Alexis Hill in the future," he said. "I think this sort of thing, while maybe a little quixotic this time or just wasn't her year this time, doesn't necessarily spell the end of her time in Washoe County or Nevada politics."