Indy Elections: The Boss’ take on early voting turnout
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: All the details you could want from resident political expert Jon Ralston about early voting turnout and what it can (and can’t) tell us about the general election. We also explore nearly $1 million that’s been spent on advertisements in the Las Vegas mayoral election. Read to the end for details on a celebrity sighting of local legend Jimmy Kimmel and new Indy merch inspiration from the former attorney general.
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We want to hear from you! Send us your questions, comments, observations, jokes or what you think we should be covering or paying attention to. Email your newsletter editor Tabitha Mueller at [email protected].
By the Numbers:
- 3 days until the end of the end of some “state-based loudmouth’s” early voting blog (but not his relevance, because #WeMatter)
- 7 days until the end of the primary and the Culinary Union finds out if “I’m the captain now.”
Jon Ralston talks early voting, race calls
By Eric Neugeboren and Tabitha Mueller
Early voting for Nevada’s June 11 primary has been underway for the past 10 days, with extremely low turnout across the state, particularly among Republicans.
Does this mean anything? And what can readers expect from our coverage next week?
To answer these questions, we talked to Indy CEO and Editor (and resident crystal ball) Jon Ralston about whether low turnout affects the general election (hint: it doesn’t), how The Indy calls races (hint: we use journalists’ least favorite subject) and one storyline he is watching for next week (hint: it has to do with a former Metro sheriff).
To get a better sense of the trends Ralston has noticed so far and what next week will look like for us (and you!), read our Q&A here.
What we’re reading and writing
Will Nevada elect Rosen and Trump in 2024? Or is recent polling a mirage? by Gabby Birenbaum
Nevadans apparently love two things: freedom and ticket splitting.
Analysis: Which Nevada candidates have benefited from federal loans? by Eric Neugeboren and Tabitha Mueller
Eight GOP congressional candidates and the then-husband of Rep. Susie Lee have received federal loans, mostly from the pandemic-era Paycheck Protection Program.
GOP candidate Larsen admits in audio to hiring 'illegals', now calls for immigration reform by Gabby Birenbaum
Those meddling reporters always ruin the messaging.
Nevada leaders react to Donald Trump’s guilty verdict by The Nevada Independent Staff
Needle, threaded.
Sam Brown backtracks on nuclear dump, says 'Yucca is dead' and shouldn't be revived by Gabby Birenbaum
Are you sure that setting up a nuclear waste site in Nevada isn’t a good idea?
Washoe County sues Postal Service over planned Reno to Sacramento move by Eric Neugeboren
In which Washoe County says, “Don’t tread on me.”
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: Vegas mayor candidates neck and neck in TV ad spending
In the Las Vegas mayoral primary, data from AdImpact indicates that candidates have spent more than $958,000 on 13 campaign ads, essentially all of which have come from the three front-runners: Councilman Cedric Crear, former Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-NV) and Councilwoman Victoria Seaman.
In his latest campaign ads, Crear portrays himself as a candidate who will advocate for neighbors and against “greedy developers.” Another ad released Monday features and endorsement from GRAMMY Award winner Toni Braxton.
Seaman has touted her support of police and said she moved to Las Vegas from Los Angeles because of Southern California's “unfriendly business climate” and high crime rates. Her ads highlight her desire to grow the economy and support tourism.
Berkley also highlights public safety in her ads and her experience in the Nevada political world, casting herself as a “unifying leader” respected by law enforcement and the city council.
According to AdImpact, Crear has spent more than $365,000 on ad reservations ahead of the primary, followed by Berkley ($328,000) and Seaman ($291,000).
— Tabitha Mueller
TOP FOUR ADS WITH THE HIGHEST SPENDING (5/14-5/20)
- U.S. Senate Race: Jacky Rosen - MAGA Extremist Sam Brown
- Began Airing: 5/22
- Total Spend: $566,000
- Ad Impressions (number of times an advertisement was seen, regardless of whether the user took any action): 26 million
- U.S. Senate Race: Jacky Rosen - Do Something
- Began Airing: 5/22
- Total Spend: $460,700
- Ad Impressions: 20.5 million
- Presidential Race: Joe Biden - Dictator
- Began Airing: 5/24
- Total Spend: $193,000
- Ad Impressions: 8.3 million
- Presidential Race: American Fuel And Petrochemical Manufacturers Association PAC (anti-Biden) - Wrong Turn
- Began Airing: 5/13
- Total Spend: $92,300
- Ad Impressions: 1.6 million
ONE OTHER TIDBIT
- Gov. Joe Lombardo’s Better Nevada PAC began running ads supporting Lombardo-backed Republican candidates, including:
- Retired law enforcement officer April Arndt, who is facing a competitive primary in Assembly District 21
- Clark County Fire Chief John Steinbeck, who is running in the crowded Senate District 18 Republican primary, and
- Washoe County Commissioner Clara Andriola, whom Lombardo appointed to fill a vacancy on the commission last April and is facing a competitive primary.
SPENDING SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK
— Tabitha Mueller
The Lightning Round
✅CD4 Trump endorsement alert — On Monday, former President Donald Trump endorsed former North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee for Congressional District 4. “John will work hard to Lower Inflation, Uphold the Rule of Law, Revitalize our Economy, Protect our Great Police and Military, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment,” Trump wrote in his endorsement post on Truth Social.
💸CD3 candidates increase self-loans — Republican Congressional District 3 candidate Marty O’Donnell loaned his campaign an additional $700,000 at the end of May, bringing his total self-loans to more than $1 million this election cycle. One of his primary opponents, former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz, also loaned $100,000 to his campaign in mid-May, bringing his total loan amount for the primary up to $900,000.
🎥 Celebrity sighting pt. 1 — Sen. Fabian Doñate (D-Las Vegas) highlighted meeting TV show host and comedian Jimmy Kimmel at a re-election campaign event for Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) on social media. “Next time we’ll need to bring out Guillermo to help knock on doors here in Nevada too,” Doñate wrote.
🎶 Celebrity sighting pt. 2 — In a campaign fundraising request, American singer-songwriter Carole King requested donations for Rosen. In the email, King wrote that as a teenager in the 1950s, she couldn’t imagine having “a seat at the table,” and requested a $5 donation to support Rosen’s campaign.
— Tabitha Mueller, Eric Neugeboren and Gabby Birenbaum
Looking Ahead
🗳️ Wednesday, June 5 — Second Gentleman Douglas Emhoff is holding a campaign event in Reno.
📣 Sunday, June 9 at 12 p.m. – Former President Donald Trump is holding a rally at Sunset Park in Las Vegas two days before the primary election as part of an effort to turn out Republican voters in the primary. The trip will be Trump’s third visit to Nevada this year.
🧑⚖️ Friday, June 14 at 10 a.m. — The U.S. District Court of Nevada is hearing a motion from the secretary of state to dismiss a lawsuit from the Republican National Committee challenging the state’s maintenance of its voter rolls. The hearing was originally set for Friday.
— Tabitha Mueller and Eric Neugeboren
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- Move along, nothing to see here.
- You can almost taste the sarcasm.
- Petitioning The Indy to put this tweet on a mug or a T-shirt and add it to our merch store.
We’ll see you next week.
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Editor’s note: This story appears in Indy Elections, The Nevada Independent’s newsletter dedicated to comprehensive coverage of the 2024 elections. Sign up for the newsletter here.