Tuesday, 6/11/24, 9:30 AM

Final post here, folks -- please follow me on Twitter and go on The Indy site for updates throughout the day.

Not much change with this AM's update from the SOS:

Total pre-Election Day turnout is 257,344, or just under 13 percent. Maybe today and incoming mail will get it to 20 percent, but it's not a lock. Final Dem lead is about 4 percentage points.

In the city of Las Vegas, final pre-Election Day numbers didn't change things much: It's 50-35, Ds over Rs. Turnout is at 54,500 voters, or 11 percent. My low estimate of 100,000 total voters may be high.

Enjoy the craziness of today, all. I know I will.

Monday, 6/10/24, 1:30 PM

Not much change with no mail counted Sunday, via the SOS.

238,000-plus have voted, or about 12 percent. I think the SOS has yet to update any new Clark/Washoe mail in a couple of days, so it may be closer to a quarter of a million by now. Both parties are at about 17 percent overall turnout; both are at about 15 percent in Clark.

I'd be surprised if Election Day added a lot to this total, but 300,000 or so seems a possibility, which would be about 15 percent overall. Can you feel the enthusiasm yet?

If it stays low, if Election Day is not anomalous, some strange results are possible. And we will know a lot when those first numbers pop up Tuesday evening — between 8 and 9, I hope!

Email if you need anything or just to say hi ...

Day 14 report, 6/8/24, 3 PM

In-person early voting is over in Nevada, and here are the final numbers, per the SOS, after a slight surge (if 7,600 voters in Clark in one day can be called a surge) on the last day:

234,378 have voted either in-person or by mail — that’s 11.7 percent. The Dems are up 44-41, which is relatively meaningless but I like to provide numbers! Even if many mail ballots come in today and early next week, and even if Election Day is about a quarter of the total turnout (that may be high), total turnout will be about 20 percent. 20 percent!

Only 65,744 of those who have cast ballots were in-person voters, or 27.9 percent. So nearly three quarters voted by mail — 79 percent of Dems and 60 percent of Repubs. With all the usual caveats about drawing comparisons between very different primary and general electorates, if Repubs don’t learn to love mail balloting as much as the Dems do…This is what happens when one party indoctrinates its voters against the evils of mail balloting — and still 60 percent ignored the admonitions.

A little more than 10 percent of Clark County active voters have cast ballots. That is putrid, and it’s not going to get that much higher. Even if it doubles…

In the only major race where these numbers mean something when you extrapolate, here’s where we are for Las Vegas mayor:

Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	25,272	49.7%	18.6%		22.9%	77.1%
R	18,057	35.5%	17.9%		43.6%	56.4%
O	7,561	14.9%	4.5%		19.2%	80.8%
Total	50,890		12.7%		29.7%	70.3%

Let me show you how sad that is by comparing it to total primary turnout in the 1999 and 2011 primaries, the ones where Oscar Goodman and Carolyn Goodman were first on the ballot, respectively:

1999: 49,498, or 25 percent

2011: 48,537, or 22 percent

So going to on-year muni elections really has moved the needle in primaries!

As for mayoral projections, if 50,000 votes have been cast now, that would mean 50,000 more votes would have to come in by mail and on Election Day to get to 100,000 votes, or about 25 percent, which had been my low baseline. I am starting to wonder if it can get there.

Right now, with 50,000 votes cast, and Republicans with 35 percent of that vote, Victoria Seaman’s strategy of going after the base still looks like it might pay off. If she is getting 60 percent of the R vote and only 10 percent of the D vote and only a quarter of the others, she would be a tick under 30 percent, which almost surely would be enough to get in.

There are a dozen other candidates, and if they can get to 10 percent in all, which seems likely, that means the three major candidates divide 90 percent of the rest. And I think it’s quite possible the minor candidates get closer to 15 percent or higher. Thirty percent seems like plenty to move forward — and Seaman is well on track, especially since Tuesday will almost surely be heavily GOP.

It's much harder to tell what happens between Shelley Berkley and Cedric Crear, although it’s reasonable to believe Berkley has more of a Dem base. Crear has to hope his time on the council will help him, and maybe those Badlands neighbors will turn out at a 100 percent clip…

If Berkley were to get 40 percent of the Dem vote, 10 percent of the R vote and a third of the others, she would be at 28 percent and very close. Move that D percentage up to 50 percent, and she is at 33 percent and a lock to move on.

Let’s say it does get to 100,000 votes in city of Las Vegas turnout:

That means the early vote is 15 percent overall. Let’s assign some numbers that should be close — 62 percent is mail and the other 23 percent is Election Day. Add in a few other assumptions – Dems ends up having close to 60 percent of total mail and GOP turnout over Dems on Tuesday is 2-to-1, and here is what you have:

If I give Seaman that 60-10-25 share split, she is at 31 percent. And I think she gets more of Ds and others, so I think she is very close to a lock to get through.

If I give Berkley only 40 percent of the D vote, 10 percent of R and only 25 percent of others, she is at 27 percent. That could — could! — leave Crear an opening, but if Berkley can get half of Ds — it’s quite possible — she’s at 32 percent, and that’s the ballgame.

I’ll keep an eye on the mail numbers the next few days, but right now I think Seaman, unless she is hemorrhaging Repubs, is close to a lock and Berkley is looking very good unless Crear has hidden strength.

The rest of the data:

STATEWIDE
D	104,064	44.4%	17.3%		21.0%	79.0%
R	96,953	41.4%	17.0%		39.4%	60.6%
O	33,361	14.2%	5.8%		16.3%	83.7%
Total	234,378		11.8%		28.0%	72.0%

CLARK
Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	71,121	48.8%	15.2%		23.9%	76.1%
R	53,664	36.9%	15.0%		44.0%	56.0%
O	20,834	14.3%	3.4%		18.2%	81.8%
Total	145,619		10.2%		30.5%	69.5%

WASHOE
Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	22,669	45.2%	23.1%		16.1%	83.9%
R	20,312	40.5%	19.3%		31.8%	68.2%
O	7,169	14.3%	28.7%		13.3%	86.7%
Total	50,150		15.4%		22.1%	77.9%

Let me know what you think at [email protected].

Day 13 report, 6/7/24, 11 AM

SOS has updated, and not much material change, folks, with one day left of early voting.

Clark County is the only county that has yet to get into double digits in turnout, which is ... embarrassing. The parties are both more than 13 percent, but the low indie turnout (3.1 percent) brings down the aggregate.

More than 200,000 have now voted statewide, about 62 percent in. Clark. Only 44,000 have turned out in the city of Las Vegas (11 percent), and Dems continue to dominate. I'll do more projections over the weekend, I hope.

The charts:

Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
STATEWIDE
D	93,566	44.9%	15.5%		19.5%	80.5%
R	84,667	40.6%	14.8%		36.8%	63.2%
O	30,352	14.6%	5.3%		14.9%	85.1%
Total	208,585		10.5%		25.9%	74.1%
CLARK
Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	63,890	49.3%	13.6%		22.2%	77.8%
R	46,911	36.2%	13.1%		41.3%	58.7%
O	18,911	14.6%	3.1%		16.7%	83.3%
Total	129,712		9.1%		28.3%	71.7%
LAS VEGAS
Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	22,179	50.3%	16.3%		21.5%	78.5%
R	15,191	34.5%	15.0%		40.8%	59.2%
O	6,705	15.2%	4.0%		17.8%	82.2%
Total	44,075		11.0%		27.6%	72.4%
WASHOE
Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	20,357	45.6%	20.8%		14.9%	85.1%
R	17,719	39.7%	16.8%		28.9%	71.1%
O	6,531	14.6%	26.1%		11.6%	88.4%
Total	44,607		13.7%		20.0%	80.0%

You know how to find me with questions, criticisms or plaudits.

Day 12 report, 6/6/24, 3:30 PM

I have returned from a brief hiatus to dazzle you with numbers as there are two days left in in-person voting (mail will continue to come in over the weekend and Monday, Tuesday and beyond). Here’s the latest via the SOS:

Just under 190,000 people have voted, not quite at 10 percent yet. Turnout in Clark (114,000) is only 8 percent and Washoe (40,000) is at 12 percent. Democratic turnout overall is still 5 percentage points ahead of GOP turnout; it’s closer to 15 percentage points in Clark. For a comparison to 2022, nearly 69,000 people voted in-person early in Clark; fewer than half that number have voted with only two days left and there are about 200,000 new voters. People love mail, and they do not love this primary election.

I’ll post the charts at the bottom of this entry, but first a few notes:

— Even though — I repeat myself ad infinitum — this has no correlation to general turnout, which could be as much as four times larger, Clark GOP turnout remains a couple of ticks below 12 percent. There is no great enthusiasm marker being laid down despite that spirited U.S. Senate primary — lots of money being spent by Sam Brown and allies and some by Jeff Gunter — and three House primaries. Clark Dem turnout is slightly higher — a little more than 12 percent. Because nonpartisan turnout is so, so low — 2.8 percent — overall Clark turnout is barely above 8 percent. (Remember that indie number is skewed by all the “zombie voters” — those tens of thousands of voters auto-registered at DMV who either don't know or don’t care.

— The question is just how low the turnout is going to be. Election Day in Clark two years ago was about a quarter of all ballots cast — overall turnout was 22.5 percent. Mail turnout was 55 percent of all turnout in Clark. Right now, mail is nearly three-quarters of all ballots, which will obviously be reduced by Tuesday’s turnout. But by how much? If early voting comes in at 10 percent overall, it will take a lot to get it to the 2022 turnout. I am starting to think 20 percent may even be high. Let’s say Election Day is 25 percent of the turnout in Clark — and that may be high — and mail turnout ends up being 60 percent of the total — and that may be low. If early voting ends up at about 40,000, that means overall turnout will be in the 275,000 range (assuming early in-person is about 15 percent of the total.) That’s about 20 percent, which is my guess at this moment, maybe slightly higher.

— In the Las Vegas mayor’s race, a little more than 39,000 people have voted — the Dems remain well ahead of the GOP, 51-34. Fewer than 10 percent of city voters have voted so far. If I give the only viable Republican, Victoria Seaman, just 10 percent of the Dem vote, only half the GOP vote and a quarter of the indie vote — that’s a very, very pessimistic breakdown for her — she is still at 26 percent right now. With more Republicans likely to vote Tuesday, I still think she has a good chance to finish in the top two. If I tick her GOP share up to 60 percent, which may be more realistic, she is already at 29 percent. If a candidate gets 30 percent and doesn’t get through to the general, that would mean the dozen minor candidates didn’t even get to 5 percent, which is almost impossible. Seaman has to be a favorite to move on.

I am not sure what percentage of the Dem vote Shelley Berkley and Cedric Crear are getting. But if one of them can get to 40 percent of the Dem vote, he or she will move on. One non-math note: The fact that a mystery PAC is hitting Crear in the mail is a sign someone thinks he might be a threat. It’s possible that the city of Las Vegas turnout does not even get to 100,000 votes, which would be something.

The data:

Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
STATEWIDE
D	85,296	45.1%	14.1%		19.0%	81.0%
R	75,761	40.1%	13.3%		35.7%	64.3%
O	27,872	14.8%	4.9%		14.2%	85.8%
Total	188,929		9.5%		25.0%	75.0%
CLARK
Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	58,100	49.5%	12.4%		21.7%	78.3%
R	42,038	35.8%	11.8%		40.2%	59.8%
O	17,281	14.7%	2.8%		16.0%	84.0%
Total	117,419		8.2%		27.5%	72.5%
LAS VEGAS
Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	19,987	50.9%	14.7%		21.0%	79.0%
R	13,275	33.8%	13.1%		39.4%	60.6%
O	6,022	15.3%	3.6%		16.8%	83.2%
Total	39,284		9.8%		26.6%	73.4%
WASHOE
Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	18,579	46.0%	19.0%		14.0%	86.0%
R	15,801	39.1%	15.0%		27.5%	72.5%
O	6,000	14.9%	24.0%		11.1%	89.0%
Total	40,380		12.4%		18.9%	81.1%

Day 11 report, 6/5/24, 8:45 AM

I was remiss Tuesday in not updating the blog, but I was traveling and had an event. I am off today and traveling again, but just wanted you all to know not much has changed:

SOS has not updated yet this AM, but about 150,000 (7.5 percent) had voted statewide as of Tuesday morning. Dems continue to have a substantial advantage because they are crushing GOP in mail (49-34) to make up for Repubs winning in-person by a lot (56-35). Mail is three-quarters of the turnout. Very little has changed in the Vegas mayoral numbers.

I promise more details by week's end...

Day 9 report, 6/3/24, 5 PM

SOS numbers are updated, and I have the City of Las Vegas numbers, too:

Statewide:

Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	62,819	45.9%	10.4%		18.1%	81.9%
R	53,459	39.0%	9.4%		33.0%	67.0%
O	20,663	15.1%	3.6%		13.1%	86.9%
Total	136,941		6.9%		23.2%	76.8%

Clark:

Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	42,444	49.9%	9.1%		21.0%	79.0%
R	30,026	35.3%	8.4%		37.9%	62.1%
O	12,518	14.7%	2.1%		14.8%	85.2%
Total	84,988		6.0%		26.0%	74.0%

CLV:

Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	14,318	51.9%	10.5%		20.5%	79.5%
R	9,106	33.0%	9.0%		36.3%	63.7%
O	4,189	15.2%	2.5%		15.6%	84.4%
Total	27,613		6.9%		25.0%	75.0%

Washoe:

Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	13,929	47.2%	14.2%		12.8%	87.2%
R	11,010	37.3%	10.5%		24.4%	75.6%
O	4,578	15.5%	18.3%		9.5%	90.5%
Total	29,517		9.0%		16.6%	83.4%

A few points:

— Turnout remains low, but not much different from 2022 in overall turnout at this point, but Dems outdistancing GOP in Clark. From my blog at same time two years ago:

Clark: About 74,000 votes have been catalogued — 30,000 Republicans and 33,000 Democrats. Just under 3,400 people voted Sunday — 600 more Republicans than Democrats. Still no signs of an unusually high turnout; it's still under 6 percent.

Washoe: Just under 31,000, with only 700 total voting in person Sunday. Right at 10 percent overall.

— GOP voters still showing no signs of enthusiasm, but will the Donald Trump visit this weekend juice Election Day turnout? For reference, 61,000 voters turned out in Clark on Election Day 2022, about a quarter of the total turnout.

— Not much change in the overall dynamic. Projections of current vote hold for mayor of Las Vegas.

Seaman
% of D	20%			2,864
% of R	60%			5,464
% of O	33%			1,382
				9,710		35.16%
Seaman
% of D	10%			1,432
% of R	60%			5,464
% of O	33%			1,382
				8,278		29.98%
Berkley
% of D	40%			5,727
% of R	10%			911
% of O	33%			1,382
				8,020		29.04%

More to come. Tell me what I missed, how insightful I am or how you don’t care about primaries at all but just read this because you are a numbers person. You know how to find me.

Day 8 report, 6/2/24, noon

No huge changes on Saturday, as expected, with about 2,300 voting in Clark. It’s really hard to tell much in any primaries with these turnout numbers — unlike the partisan breakouts in the general election — except perhaps for the Las Vegas mayor’s race. All we know for sure is turnout is very low, and Republicans are showing no excitement for the primaries in federal or legislative races.

Voters in both parties continue to love the switch to mail ballots — more than three-quarters of all voters who have cast ballots have done so by mail, 83 percent of Dems and 67 percent of Repubs.

Here are the numbers — followed by some projections for Las Vegas mayor:

Statewide:

Party	Total	%	Total turnout %		EV%	Mail%
D	60,306	46.0%	10.0%		17.4%	82.6%
R	51,021	38.9%	8.9%		32.6%	67.4%
O	19,784	15.1%	3.5%		12.6%	87.4%
Total	131,111		6.6%		22.6%	77.4%

Clark:

D	41,023	50.0%	8.8%		20.0%	80.0%
R	28,869	35.2%	8.1%		36.7%	63.3%
O	12,181	14.8%	2.0%		13.8%	86.2%
Total	82,073		5.8%		24.9%	75.1%

CLV:

D	12,928	51.7%			20.6%	79.4%
R	8,145	32.6%			37.3%	62.7%
O	3,914	15.7%			14.9%	85.1%
Total	24,987		6.2%		25.1%	74.9%

Washoe:

D	13,292	47.2%			12.2%	87.8%
R	10,453	37.1%			23.4%	76.6%
O	4,393	15.6%			9.0%	91.0%
Total	28,138		8.6%		15.9%	84.1%

So let’s take a look at those city of Las Vegas numbers and do some projections:

If Victoria Seaman is getting 60 percent of the GOP vote, 20 percent of the D vote and a third of the rest, she would have 35 percent right now. If she is getting just 10 percent of the D vote and the rest stays the same, she would get 30 percent and still move on. If you tick her GOP percentage down to 50 percent (she SHOULD do better, but who knows), her share is only 27 percent and it starts to get dicey.

But I still like her chances unless something weird is going on.

I am not sure what percentage of the D vote Shelley Berkley will get, but she has been around a long time, so let’s give her half the D vote (conservative), 10 percent of the R vote and a third of the rest. That gives her 34 percent, and she would move on. If she were to get only 40 percent of the D vote, that would move her down to 29 percent.

Question? Criticisms? Hosannas? You know where to find me.

Day 7 report, 6/1/24, noon

Quick Saturday update for you with one week out of two of early voting in the books, Election Day 11 days away:

Not much new (SOS has not updated yet), but in Clark, the turnout remains very low at 5.4 percent. So 30 percent overall turnout seems impossible, 25 percent highly unlikely, so I am starting to think 20 percent might be best for models. We will know more next week, but: WHERE IS THE ENTHUSIASM?

The Clark numbers:

D: 38,212 (50 percent)

R: 26,633 (35 percent)

O: 15,592 (15 percent)

Total: 76,248

There are 1.4 million active voters in Clark County.

In the city of Las Vegas, where there are 400,000 active voters, turnout is at 5.5 percent:

D: 11,494 (52 percent)

R: 7,201 (33 percent)

O: 3,725 (15 percent)

Total: 22,137

Overall in Clark, 18,000 have voted early in-person, and the pace has been pretty steady at about 2,500 a day, give or take. The Rs lead in that cohort by 52-40. More than three times as many have voted by mail, and Dems continue to dominate there (53-30), which is why they have a sizable lead in ballots.

So after a week, the patterns seem pretty much entrenched. Maybe the Repubs will start cutting into the D lead in Week 2, but does sudden enthusiasm make any sense? If Shelley Berkley can get a substantial number of Dem votes – half? – and Victoria Seaman can get 60 percent or more of the R vote, those two will move on, as conventional wisdom has suggested. But, as I have said, the lower the turnout stays, the stranger outcomes could occur, and Cedric Crear has some pros on his team.

The second week will tell much of the tale because I don’t expect Election Day to be robust. In 2022 in Clark, Election Day was 61,000 voters, or only a fifth of the total turnout. (55 percent was mail.) Overall turnout was 22 percent.

As always, feel free to annoy me by email at [email protected]...

Day 6 report, 3:30 PM, 5/31/24

An update on the Las Vegas mayor’s race:

The influx of mail appears to be hurting Councilwoman Victoria Seaman the most – at least in theory. The Dems now have close to a 20-percentage-point lead in the city limits, 52-33. And turnout there is very low, too – about 20,000 people have voted, or about 5 percent of active voters. (There are about 473,000 registered voters, but only a small percentage of the inactive voters will cast ballots.)

I would be surprised if turnout gets to 25 percent, but we will have to watch the second-week trendline. A quarter of active voters would be about 100,000 overall; if you prefer reg voter models, that would be closer to 120,000.

The lackluster GOP turnout across the board – there are primaries in all the federal races and some heated ones in legislative races – may be her undoing if she fails to make it through. But she still has the only recent partisan base in the race and has been making direct appeals to the GOP base – Shelley Berkley has been out of office since 2013 and Cedric Crear has been in nonpartisan offices his entire career – so I don’t discount the councilwoman’s chances.

Some more extrapolation fun – let’s look at four turnout scenarios:

90,000 turnout: If the breakdown is D+20 percent (54-34), and Seaman gets 60 percent of the GOP vote. 20 percent of Dems and a third of the nonpartisans – I think this is all generous -- she will have 35 percent and be a lock to move on. Even if I knock her Dem percentage down to 10 and her NP percentage to 20, she still would get 30 percent, which could be enough. Obviously, these percentages are speculative, but I don’t expect her to get much less than 60 percent of the GOP vote and if she does, she is in trouble.

100,000 turnout: Same parameters, 35 and 28.

110,000 turnout: Same parameters, and she would get 35 and 26.

120,000 turnout: Same parameters, and she would get 35 and 25.

So two things seem clear: Seaman almost certainly will get 25 percent – that is her floor, or close to it. But the higher the turnout gets and if the Dems continue to dominate mail, the dicier it gets for her unless she can well exceed 60 percent of the GOP vote. Of course, this also is dependent on how much the dozen minor candidates get and whether that is more than 10 percent in aggregate (probably).

As we go to the weekend, and I will update the blog a time or two during the next couple of days, the general trend remains in place: GOP turnout is much lower than expected, and Dems are turning out in greater numbers despite not have much to get excited about.

Email me – you know where – if you agree or disagree or just want to tell me a good political joke.

Day 6 updated report, 5/31/24, 10:15 AM

SOS has updated its numbers:

Just under 103,000 have voted statewide by mail or in-person. That's about 5 percent. It's 46-39, Dems, so their mail advantage (49-34) is slowly increasing their lead despite Repubs winning in-person (56-36).

That's because mail is about 80 percent of the total vote. (Caveat: Not all vote totals have been updated.)

Dems are at about 83 percent mail, according to the SOS, and Repubs are at just under 70 percent. Again, I draw no correlations between the primary and general, but there is no way to see this as good news for the GOP. It may be meaningless, but if you are looking for harbingers to hang your hat on...

The Clark numbers combined are now at 50-35, Dems, About 63,500 people have voted, or 4.5 percent. There are very few interesting Dem primaries, and there is no evidence that the Las Vegas mayor's race is juicing turnout at all.

In Washoe: 23,000 have voted,, and it's 47-36, Dems. Turnout overall is at 7 percent.

More when I have it. Email me if you like.

Day 6 report, 5/31/24, 7 AM

Today will mark the halfway point of early voting, and with six days in the book, we know a few things: Turnout is quite low, and Democrats are outdistancing Republicans.

I’ll update this later, but some numbers for you:

Clark in-person turnout is at slightly less than 15,700, or about 1 percent of active voters. The mail numbers dwarf the in-person: 51,275, or just more than 3.6 percent. There are more than 1.4 million voters in Clark County. Will it even get to 20 percent by the end of the election? (Probably)

I am behind in tallying up the in-person partisan breakdowns — been traveling and stacked — so mea culpa. I will update when I can. But the latest mail breakdowns, which overwhelm the in-person ones:

D: 27,179 (53 percent)

R: 15,350 (30 percent)

O: 8,742 (17 percent)

Total: 51.275

I have some numbers from yesterday in the Las Vegas mayor’s race that are similar proportionally:

D: 4,667 (55 percent)

R: 2,412 (29 percent)

O: 1,383 (16 percent)

Total: 8,462

I will add in the in-person voting when I can — I am sure the GOP still has a lead there among the much smaller cohort of voters — but the city is at least a 50-40 advantage for Ds. If enough Republicans — half or more — vote for Councilwoman Victoria Seaman, she will probably get through. But even her folks have to be nervous about the much higher Dem numbers as the mail pours in.

More later when I can. As always, email me at [email protected] with data (I am always ravenous) or anything else.

Day 5 report, 5/30/24, 11:30 AM

I have a crazy day today, folks, so just the basics until I have time to dig deeper:

SOS reports just north of 73,000 people have cast ballots by mail and in-person. For context, there are about 2 million active voters in Nevada, so turnout after five days is a paltry 3.7 percent. It’s still 45-40, Dems, because of their 48-36 mail advantage, and mail is more than 70 percent of the total. GOP leads in in-person, 54-36.

Nearly 70 percent of Republicans are voting by mail and 80 percent of Dems are. Nevadans like mail ballots. Shocker.

Turnout is only 2.8 percent in Clark and 6.1 percent in Washoe. Dem turnout is 10 percentage points better than Repub turnout in Clark, and Dems are leading by 12 percentage points in Washoe. I repeat: There really isn’t a lot for Dems to vote for in the primary, so this surprises me a bit. Anyone have any theories? Mail just is so easy, why not vote even if not much excites you?

More later, I hope. Email me at [email protected] with questions, critiques and plaudits.

Day 4 report, 5/29/24, 11:30 AM

The SOS is reporting turnout is at 3 percent, or 59,000 voters. The Dems remain ahead of the Repubs — 45-40 — because they are dominating mail (48-36) and offsetting a deficit in in-person (54-36) because mail is three-quarters of the total. (This, of course, is the nightmare scenario for the GOP in the general, but remember there is no correlation between a primary and general. Right, Republicans?)

Overall, D turnout (4.4 percent) is slightly more than R turnout (4.2 percent). And the Rs have far more competitive/interesting races. In Clark, both parties are just under 4 percent.

A flood of mail was counted Tuesday after the holiday weekend, but there is no real enthusiasm for this primary. Remember, turnout for the last two cycles was 30 percent or so overall, and that could be a struggle this year with almost a third of early voting days over, even though the second week is usually more robust.

Some other numbers:

Clark’s turnout bumped up a bit Tuesday to 2,744 voters — 49-43, GOP — and add in mail ballots and the total for Southern Nevada is more than 37,000, or just 2.6 percent. Overall, the Dems are ahead in Clark, 49-37. Only 14 percent of the electorate is non-majors.

Republicans are similarly winning the in-person vote in Washoe, 50-39, but are getting crushed in mail, 48-34, so the combined numbers are: Just over 15,000, with Dems ahead, 47-36. Turnout is just under 5 percent. So Washoe County residents so far are twice as civic-minded as Clark County voters, but it still doesn’t amount to much. (Rural turnouts are all higher, mirroring what happens in the general.)

I’ll try to pull Las Vegas mayoral race numbers later — I am pretty sure the percentages haven't changed much — but no promises. Deal with it, or email me @[email protected] with your grievances…

Day 3 update, 5/28/24, 5:30 PM

I finally have some more significant data — i.e. mail — for the Las Vegas mayor's race:

D: 3,344 (54.5 percent)

R: 1,855 (30.2 percent)

O: 942 (15.3 percent)

Total: 6,141

(The mail numbers vary depending on when you download the file, but the percentages have been pretty consistent.)

If you add in the in-person voting through Day 3, here's what you have:

D: 4,407 (50.7 percent)

R: 3,123 (35.9 percent)

O: 1,163 (13.4 percent)

Total: 8,693

Let's have some fun with extrapolations — hey, it's my blog and I'll extrapolate if I want to, as Lesley Gore sang.

I am going to assume these percentages don't change much — that is, Dems account for about half the mail ballots, which will account for about two-thirds of the vote. And even if Repubs make gains before the end, let's say the Dems win by 10 percentage points in the city: 50-40-10, maybe.

So: Let's say turnout is 150,000 voters (I think that's a ceiling and probably a high one), then we have 75,000 D ballots, 60,000 R ballots and 15,000 nonmajors. With me so far?

If GOP Councilwoman Victoria Seaman gets 75 percent of the GOP vote and 10 percent of the Dem vote, then she would have 52,500 votes, or 35 percent. That's probably enough to get her into the runoff, and that's without any nonmajors. She may do worse than that with Repubs and better with Dems, but it's almost impossible to predict.

If Seaman gets 60 percent of the GOP vote and 10 percent of the Dem vote, then she would have 43,500 votes, or 29 percent, which STILL could get her into the runoff — and again I am not counting any of the 15,000 nonmajor votes.

One more:

If GOP Seaman gets 50 percent of the GOP vote and 10 percent of the Dem vote , then she would have 37,500 votes, or 25 percent. That's still not too shabby and without any nonmajors.

I don't have a good sense — at least not yet — how the nonmajors will break. But if the GOP turnout is large enough and Seaman's campaign to the GOP pays off (that is, the base holds), it's hard not to see her getting through.

Much of this will depend on how the dozen minor candidates do, too. If they take 15 percent of the vote — I think closer to 10 or single digits is more likely — 35 percent of the vote is a lock to get through but 25 percent may not be.

Yes, it's very early. But it's fun to extrapolate. Check my math, tell me where my analysis is flawed or nominate me for a Pulitzer at [email protected].

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Day 3 report, 5/28/24, 11:30 AM

I am going to try to cut down on all of the data to distill the picture for you, especially since the primary numbers are so small and because some of the information probably is not very useful except to crazy people like me. I don’t have information yet on city of Las Vegas mail ballots, and I am hoping to get some later today.

Here are some general thoughts with about a fourth of the early/mail data in now:

— Turnout is very low. Remember that the last two cycles it got to 30 percent by the end. I am not sure that is going to happen on either side —– turnout is about 3.5 percent statewide so far for both parties.

Here’s what the numbers are now —– these are combined in-person and mail numbers, via the SOS:

Statewide:

D: 21,504 (45.0 percent)

R: 19,253 (40.3 percent)

O: 7,014 (14.7 percent)

Total: 47,771 (2.4 percent)

Clark:

D: 12,601 (48.0 percent)

R: 10,214 (38.9 percent)

O: 3,413 (13.0 percent)

Total: 26,228 (1.8 percent)

Washoe:

D: 6,350 (47.7 percent)

R: 4,677 (35.1 percent)

O: 2,282 (17.2 percent)

Total: 13,319 (4.1 percent)

So what do these numbers tell us? Did I mention turnout is low? Less than 2 percent in Clark!

Yes, this was a holiday weekend, and maybe voting will pick up as they count more mail ballots. But this is going to be a low-turnout election.

And everyone loves mail — sorry, Mr. Trump. Eighty percent of ballots so far have been cast by mail; 84 percent of Dem ballots are through the mail and 73 percent by Repubs.

Mail voting is favoring Dems — by 47-37 statewide, 52-34 in Clark and 49-34 in Washoe. This shows that even without many compelling races on the Dem side, the ease of voting by mail is juicing turnout.

If the avalanche of mail voting continues and if it continues to favor Democrats — I think both will occur — this could have a dramatic impact on the Las Vegas mayor’s race. In-person voting favors the GOP (and, I’d guess, Victoria Seaman), by 50-42, but the mail surely is swamping that lead. I’ll get you that info when I have it.

Let me know what I missed, what I screwed up or how wonderful you think this blog is at [email protected].

Day 2, 5/27/24, 10:40 AM

A couple of addenda:

The SOS has different numbers than Washoe for mail ballots — my guess is, as I suspected, that the Washoe folks listed the wrong universe. (Ugh.)

Here's what the SOS says Washoe mail shows — and these numbers make more sense:

Total mail: 10,484

GOP: 3,509 (33.4 percent)

Dem: 5,061 (48.3 percent)

Rest: 1,914 (18.2 percent)

Also, you can see total turnout for the state, including in-person, mail and Effective Absentee System for Elections (EASE) ballots (for military, overseas and persons with disabilities) here. Total votes tallied so far: 38,670, or about 2 percent.

More when I get it ...

Day 2, 5/27/24, 7:45 AM

More data is in, including from Washoe, and mail ballots from Clark. Prepare for a blizzard of numbers, folks.

In-person Sunday from Clark: 2,051

GOP: 1,049 (51.1 percent)

Dem: 821 (40 percent)

Rest: 181 (9 percent)

That’s still down from 2022: 3,164

GOP: 1,537 (48.6 percent)

Dem: 1,302 (41.1 percent)

Rest: 325 (10.3 percent)

Clark aggregate in-person: 5,589

GOP: 2,891 (52.7 percent)

Dem: 2,227 (39.8 percent)

Rest: 471 (7.5 percent)

So Republicans winning the in-person, as expected, even in Dem Clark. But the mail, so far at least, is a very different story. Dems just love the mail while Repubs just like it a lot.

Clark mail: 15,792

Dem: 7,912 (50.1 percent)

GOP: 5,454 (34.5 percent)

Rest: 2,426 (13.4 percent)

The Republicans continue to lead in city of Las Vegas in-person voting, which I am tracking because of the mayor’s race.

City of Las Vegas: 780

GOP: 369 (47.3 percent)

Dem: 335 (42.9 percent)

Rest: 76 (9.8 percent)

City of Las Vegas aggregate: 1,983

GOP: 979 (49.3 percent)

Dem: 826 (41.7 percent)

Rest: 178 (9 percent)

I don’t have a mail breakdown from the city, which may dramatically change these numbers in the Dems’ favor, but maybe someone on the ground in the campaigns can help. You know how to find me!

Even with the mail, this is still sliver of the Clark County vote to come. If turnout is 400,000 in Clark for the primary, that means we only have about 5 percent accounted for — and it’s probably less than that because 400,000 is probably an optimistic projection for the ceiling.

Washoe has posted some numbers:

Only 561 voted early the first day, with half (282) Republican and 40 percent Democrat (224) and the rest negligible (55).

The combined Washoe mail/in-person for the first day: 31,626

Dem: 10,721 (33.9 percent)

GOP: 9,135 (28.9 percent)

Rest: 11,770 (37.2 percent)

Seems odd that non-majors would be leading in a primary, so I’ll keep an eye on that site to make sure it’s correct. Maybe it’s those Reno City Council elections?

More when I get it. Email me at [email protected] if you have data or brickbats or plaudits.

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Welcome to the early voting blog, where I dig into the data so you don’t have to (unless you do and inevitably feel the need to correct me):

From now through the primary election — and beyond, if necessary — I will report on voting data. It is especially useful during general elections, where I can often use data to predict foregone outcomes before Election Day. In primaries, it can’t tell us as much, but it can tell us something, albeit not quite everything before the actual results come in.

Some points to remember:

— Partisan primary turnout is not a reliable predictor of general election turnout. The party that has the more competitive/intense primaries should be expected to have the higher turnout. With a U.S. Senate primary, three House primaries and a handful of key legislative primaries, the Republicans should have significantly higher turnout. I doubt this admonition will stifle breathless braggadocio by either party, but them’s the facts.

— If turnout is unusually low — and it is starting out that way in Southern Nevada (one day of data is not enough to be sure), it’s more likely weird stuff could happen. I don’t mean Jim Marchant winning the U.S. Senate primary. But keep an eye out for upsets if it stays very low.

— The advent of mail ballots has changed the calculus in Nevada elections. It will, I’d guess, continue to reduce in-person voting, whether it’s early or on Election Day. It will be interesting to see if residual Republican scare tactics about mail voting reduce GOP absentee ballots.

Having said all of that, here is some data after Day One:

— In-person turnout on Day 1 in Clark (3,538) was down from Day 1 in 2022 (5,490). Take that for what it’s worth, which is not much after just one day. But if it continues, I sense this a mail-ballot effect. If turnout is very low overall, that might be an offshoot of general disgust with elections thanks to two top-of-the-ticket candidates people are not thrilled are running for president.

— The partisan breakdown of the first-day turnout in Clark: 1,406 Ds-1,842 Rs, 290 nonpartisans. This is not that surprising, as I told you above.

— In the city of Las Vegas, where that intense nonpartisan race for mayor is occurring, and the top two go on to the general, here are the Day 1 numbers:

Turnout was 1,204. The breakdown: 610 Rs; 491 Ds; and 102 nonpartisans. (The actual registration breakdown in the city is 34 percent Democrats; 25 percent Republicans; and 41 percent nonpartisans.) Remember that Las Vegas Councilwoman Victoria Seaman has run a campaign to appeal to Republican voters. The higher the GOP turnout in the city, the better, presumably, for her.

— The mail ballot information from the secretary of state is incomplete — it does not yet include a handful of counties, including Clark, so it’s not that useful this early. But: It shows about 16,000 mail ballots returned, with the major parties accounting for 13,000 of them and evenly divided so far.

— There are now nearly 2 million active voters in Nevada — although a substantial number of them are what I call “zombie voters.” That is, they were default-registered at the DMV as nonpartisans and are likely not really “active” voters. If turnout is about 30 percent overall in the primary — it was 26 percent in 2022 and 30 percent in 2020 — that would mean at most 600,000 voters will turn out this cycle, unless mail balloting juices that total.

That’s all for now. (I don’t see Washoe data yet.) More when I get it. Please feel free to email me at [email protected] to point out mistakes, give me data I can use or simply gush about how wonderful this blog is.