Nevada Republicans have stopped talking about Trump — at least in campaign ads

Indy Elections takes you behind the headlines of Nevada politics, delivering scoops and smart analysis on the races that could reshape our lives. You can change your newsletter settings here.

In today's edition: Are Nevada Republicans dodging Trump? Plus: The president's under-the-radar Nevada spending, his loudly announced poll watchers and news about those mysterious last-minute texts. 

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The elephant (not) in the room

Are Republicans in Nevada scared to talk about President Donald Trump? Based on ad spending data pulled from AdImpact, it sure seems like it. 

Of Democrats' total spending on broadcast and streaming ads in Nevada since Aug. 1, roughly $1 of every $2 went toward spots mentioning Trump. In comparison, roughly $1 of every $1,000 spent by Republicans on broadcast and streaming ads since Aug. 1 went toward spots mentioning him. That's … a big difference! 

The Indy's analysis was inspired by — and borrowed methodology from — a recent story by Bayliss Wagner of The New York Times, documenting how Republicans in congressional races nationwide have shied away from mentioning Trump while Democrats have gone all-in. 

The contrast in Trump references was especially stark in the governor's race, where Democrats are happy to invoke a president increasingly unpopular among Nevadans. The first pro-Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) ad that mentioned Trump ran July 28. Since then, Democrats have spent more than $7 million on governor race ads mentioning Trump (of more than $13 million on ads in total over that period). Republicans, in comparison, have spent $0 on governor race ads mentioning Trump.

Since Aug. 1, Democrats have spent more than $1.1 million on governor race ads referencing the "Lombardo-Trump economy," one of the Ford campaign's favorite phrases. Unsurprisingly, there are no pro-Ford ads that mention Trump but not Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), but nine that mention Lombardo and not Trump — including one rebutting Lombardo's attack ads on Ford and one criticizing Lombardo's stance on data centers.

In its analysis, the Times noted that Republicans mentioned Trump less and less in ads as 2026 progressed, likely because their perceived loyalty to the president was more salient in primary elections hosted earlier in the year. 

The Indy found a similar trend in Nevada. Take, for example, congressional races: In the two months leading up to Nevada's June 9 primaries (April 9 to June 9), nearly 85 percent of ad money spent by Republicans in House races went towards ads mentioning Trump. In the two months following the election (June 10 to Aug. 10), just 0.5 percent of the ad money they spent did.

— Kate Reynolds

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What we're reading and writing

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Find someone who cares about you as much as Mother Jones cares about David Flippo.

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Indy Ad Watch: Independent-minded?

Hundreds of thousands of dollars of spending in Nevada's congressional races this fall have flown under the radar, per Federal Election Commission records of independent expenditures. 

That includes nearly $1 million on billboards for Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) from liberal super PAC American Bridge 21st Century, nearly three-quarters of a million dollars apiece for phone-banking, canvassing and texts on behalf of the three Republican nominees in Southern Nevada from American Majority Action PAC, a conservative super PAC bankrolled by billionaire Richard Uihlein, $300,000 on advertising opposing small-business owner David Flippo (R) by the League of Conservation Voters, and more than $30,000 each on digital ads opposing Lee and former Assm. Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D-Reno) by Trump's MAGA Inc.

Outside groups also spent in support of Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV), who is considered safer than the other incumbents. Think Big, a pro-AI super PAC funded by Andreessen Horowitz, spent $321,000 on his behalf, while Rolling Sea Action Fund, which aims to empower the Black community, spent $150,000. The Congressional Black Caucus PAC is paying $3,000 for radio ads supporting him as well.

Here's the other last minute ad news that caught our eye:

• The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's (DCCC) new ad with Benitez-Thompson, shared first with The Indy, slams Flippo over recent controversies.
• A recent DCCC press release lists Nevada's 1st and 2nd, but not 3rd, congressional districts among those where the committee is running TV ads in the final week of the election — a signifier of the shifting battleground. 
• The Nevada GOP, meanwhile, is chipping in with $75,000 for a coordinated spend with Flippo, per AdImpact. Their new ad attacks Benitez-Thompson as too far left. It refers to a news outlet called The Post Sentinel calling her "the most far-left wing candidate in America," however, The Indy couldn't find any record of such an outlet or quote. 

— Mini Racker

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Mini Series: 👁️👁️Somebody's watching me

👁️ DOJ plans poll day observing — The Department of Justice plans to station observers at four Clark County polling sites on Election Day, Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar (D) told The Indy.

• Nevada and Clark County election officials had a meeting Tuesday with the Justice Department, which Aguilar called "cordial and respectful." Aguilar added that the observers are welcome as long as they are respectful, and that the state "will not tolerate any form of disruption, chaos, threats or intimidation."
• In a statement, a Justice Department spokesperson said it will have around 1,000 monitors nationwide on Election Day, and it will release the specific locations that day. The spokesperson added that the monitors "will merely observe and report any potential violations of federal law to the Department, which will be reviewed after Election Day."

🗳️A Red Senate District in play? — Is Northern Nevada's Senate District 16, represented by state Sen. Lisa Krasner (R-Reno), in danger of flipping? The district has a Republican voter registration advantage of more than 13.5 percentage points and has never been held by a Democrat. Still, voter registration and early vote data show promising signs for Democrats. Democratic challenger Chrystal Roll has been door-knocking in the Carson City and South Reno district alongside her fellow members of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) Local 4041 throughout the election cycle.

• The district has a high concentration of state workers, and union member Blaine Harper said she and others have been highlighting Roll's healthcare and social services experience, especially her work as a social worker.
  • "We have a lot of districts in Nevada, and especially Northern Nevada, where a lot of the time Democrats don't even run," Harper said. "What Chrystal's doing is something that I think we see a lot more of, honestly, where people can see more options and what she brings to the table."
• The effort is part of a new, heavy investment in a ground-game program the union is running in coordination with the American Federation of Labor and its own member-to-member program. Union representatives did not clarify the size of that financial investment.
• The Nevada Democratic state party has sent mailers to registered Republicans in the district touting Roll's commitment to lowering costs, expanding housing access and ending corporate tax giveaways. 

📱Birthplace debate — A recent Reddit post features a text from what the user claims is Clark County Commission District F candidate Becky Harris' campaign alleging that her Democratic opponent, Minja Yan (D), lied about being born and raised in Las Vegas in an interview this month. 

• In a phone call, Dane B., the Reddit user and a District F resident who did not want to publicize his full last name for privacy reasons, said that four of his friends, all registered as nonpartisans, received the messages, which linked to Harris' "Personal Cell" and her campaign website ElectBeckyHarris.com. He said he was disappointed in the message and thought that Harris would be putting forward her policy platform instead of attacking opponents. The Nevada Independent was not able to independently verify the messages, but reviewed several screenshots. 
• The Channel 8 interview begins with the reporter stating that Yan was "born and raised here in town," and Yan does not explicitly correct her, though she does not say she was born in Las Vegas. Instead, she says she "grew up in southwest Las Vegas." Yan has said she was born in Guangzhou, China, and moved to the U.S. when she was around 11-years-old. 
• In a text message to The Nevada Independent, Harris' campaign manager, Tom Letizia, stated that the message was not associated with the campaign. "I know nothing about this message. I first learned about it when you sent it to me. As I think you know by now, this is not the kind of campaign Becky Harris has been running, nor is it the kind of campaign we intend to run in these remaining few days," he wrote. Harris, running as an independent, was previously a Republican state senator. 

💬 Whose callin' my phone?— The plot thickens around texts sent to voters in state Senate District 8 attacking Sen. Marilyn Dondero Loop (D-Las Vegas). The same phone number that sent a fake flyer claiming Dondero Loop attended an event with the Democratic Socialists of America sent another text this week, directing voters to an attack ad slamming her education record. The text included the message: "As a democrat [sic] this bothers me. We need to fix our party."

• The ad linked in the texts was created by the Nevada Republican Club Action, a nonprofit linked to the Nevada Republican Club. The group did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the texts.
• Campaign finance records also raise new questions about if Dondero Loop's opponent, Republican businessman George Harris (R), is linked to the texts — despite him previously telling The Indy his campaign had "no involvement."
  • The phone number sent voters a text on Aug. 10 with a link to a push poll labeled as an "InTouch Mobile Poll." George Harris' most recent fundraising report shows a $1,520.02 payment to the Phoenix branch of InTouch, a digital services company, on Aug. 17 — a week after the text with the poll was sent.
  • George Harris' campaign did not immediately return a request for clarification. The Phoenix and international headquarters of InTouch did not return The Indy's request for comment.

— Eric Neugeboren, Tabitha Mueller, Oona Milliken and Kate Reynolds

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Looking Ahead

• Friday, Oct. 30 — Early voting ends
• Tuesday, Nov. 3  — Election Day

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A post that caught our eye: 

We did it, Joe!

We'll see you next week. 

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