Unproven claims of widespread voter fraud return in Nevada secretary of state's race

Editor's note: This is our second story previewing the secretary of state's race. For a closer look at the candidates' policy positions, click here.

The race for Nevada's top elections official is between the system's biggest defender and one of its most outspoken critics.

For the second straight cycle, former state Assm. Jim Marchant (R-Las Vegas) is squaring off against Cisco Aguilar (D), who beat Marchant by about 23,000 votes four years ago to become Nevada's secretary of state.

Any election involving incumbents is naturally going to serve as a litmus test of their tenure. But this race is also a referendum on public trust in Nevada's election system and whether Nevadans would prefer keeping the same leadership or replace it with someone who does not hesitate to promote unproven claims that elections are rife with fraud.

It's a similar question that voters faced four years ago, but times have changed a bit.

That 2022 election came amid widespread election denialism. Republicans across the country ran often-failed campaigns centered around President Donald Trump's false claims he won the 2020 election.

Now back in the White House, Trump wants the federal government to have an unprecedented level of power in state-run elections. Marchant has supported the idea, while Aguilar has called it "federal overreach." And election distrust has also crossed party lines, with some data showing Nevada Democrats' trust in elections slipping following the 2024 election.

For his part, Marchant says the political environment is advantageous for him.

"I think there's a bigger focus on [election fraud] from my perspective than '22," he said.

When asked about the rise in election skepticism, Aguilar said he is tuning it out.

"It's understanding how our systems work and being able to defend those systems," he said. "It motivates me to think: How do we start to even get better and stronger?"

The candidates have also been on diverging paths in the past four years.

Aguilar now has the incumbency advantage — with a $1 million war chest — and is on the campaign trail touting his first term, most notably the rollout of the state's new voter registration and election management system.

Meanwhile, Marchant finished third in a Republican primary for U.S. Senate two years ago but is coming off a surprising win in the June primaries. Despite raising no money, he ousted a field of candidates that included a well-funded businesswoman backed by Gov. Joe Lombardo (R). But he still has no campaign infrastructure, had $14 in his campaign account at the end of June and is the only Republican running for statewide office without Lombardo's endorsement. Lombardo's campaign did not respond to a question about whether he would back Marchant.

Marchant said he has not spoken with Lombardo since his primary win but that he'd welcome his endorsement.

"A lot of people have issues with my strong stance to protecting our elections and ensuring they're fair and transparent," he said. "I don't know why, but that's a problem."

'They can hide stuff'

In a 30-minute interview with The Indy this month, Marchant echoed numerous unproven claims of election fraud.

As apparent evidence of his distrust in voting machines, Marchant claimed that the Venezuelan government used the Smartmatic voting machines to affect "elections in 72 countries," a claim that CIA analysis from this summer rebutted. 

He also said he has not trusted any Nevada election results — including ones he has won — since the entire state started using touch-screen voting machines in the mid-2000s. 

"Using these machines is set up for chaos and unorganization and just nobody knowing what's going on because they can hide stuff that way," he said.

Nevada's voting machines go through a rigorous security process, including accuracy and logic testing before and after elections and security testing to ensure nobody has gained unauthorized access. There is no evidence that voting machines have led to inaccurate results.

Meanwhile, Aguilar told The Indy that these claims do not affect how he is running the race.

"Having an opponent like Mr. Marchant, I think, is irrelevant to the overall," he said. "I have to sell Nevadans on my agenda, my plan, my vision and my goals, and show them where we've met the expectation."

But no matter a candidate's strategy, the race could come down to a simple question: Do voters trust the state's elections? Polling has shown a nuanced answer.

Last year, a survey from a Republican pollster found that two-thirds of Nevadans were confident that the state's votes were accurately cast and counted in the 2024 election. However, it also found that 62 percent of Nevada Democrats were confident that election results would be counted accurately across the country. Nine months earlier, the same pollster found that number was about 90 percent.

That same poll also found Aguilar's approval rating 13 points above water, with 48 percent of respondents approving of his performance and 35 percent disapproving.

Upending vs. tech overhaul

Marchant wants to upend how Nevada elections work. He has called for ending universal mail ballots, unregistering then re-registering all voters and eliminating the use of voting machines in favor of paper ballots. He also has previously floated using technology that measures people's heartbeats to verify their identities, but this month he said that wouldn't be an immediate priority because "I don't think people are ready for that right now."

Asked how he would respond to skepticism about his ambitious proposals, Marchant said: "Why would anybody have a problem with that? Whenever I speak, everywhere I go, nobody has a problem with it."

Aguilar, on the other hand, has called the secretary of state's office "a technology company" in need of more resources. If re-elected, he plans to ask the Legislature to fund a new leadership position focused on technology.

"You have to have investment into the technology and IT team," he said. "I believe in the past the IT team kind of sat back and was never included in the overall direction."

Under Aguilar's tenure, there have been notable IT mistakes. A glitch in early 2024 incorrectly showed people as having participated in the presidential preference primary when they did not, this year's primary results were erroneously posted early, and the personal information of a Republican candidate was posted on the secretary of state's website.

"When errors happen, it's on the leader to take responsibility for them and be transparent about those issues to the public," Aguilar said. "But again, it's also making sure that we have the capacity and a human perspective to be able to deliver on these efforts, and that's where we need the investment."

Aguilar is also focused on implementing voter ID requirements, with the likely passage of a ballot question this year. He declined to say whether he supports it, which Marchant does.

The secretary of state's office is also in charge of the state's business licensing system — and the candidates have different opinions on how to approach the state's business environment.

Marchant wants to repeal the state's commerce tax — imposed on businesses with an annual gross revenue above $4 million — but that has essentially no chance of succeeding with Democrats likely to once again control the Legislature.

Meanwhile, Aguilar plans to ask the Legislature to give his office prosecutorial authority over investment fraud cases. The office already investigates this type of fraud but does not have dedicated lawyers focused on it.

"There's more of an efficiency, which means we are better prepared to go to court and hold these people accountable," he said.