When candidates give squishy answers, voters lose
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In today's edition: The questions the candidates won't answer. Plus: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) had a lot to say about President Trump's Las Vegas visit, a grain of salt for the polls, and Marty O'Donnell addresses the Iran war.
August is slow in Washington … but only because everyone's on the campaign trail. Read on for some of the biggest election news of the summer.
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What'll you fall for?
In our recent comparison of the differences between the gubernatorial candidates on a select number of issues, Gov. Joe Lombardo's (R) campaign did not give a direct "yes" or "no" answer to four of 10 straightforward questions.
As for Lombardo's opponent, Attorney General Aaron Ford (D), when we asked him at a press conference last week when he'll know the affordability crisis is over, he responded: "I'm not certain that it's a destination. It is certainly a journey. It is one where we can actually survive and live, and more than survive, thrive in our state."
Ford's response is technically an answer, but it's what I would call squishy. It doesn't give much insight into how he defines affordability, what it means to achieve it or when he will determine the state is in an economically healthy position.
As a reporter, not receiving a clear or direct answer isn't just personally frustrating, it makes informing the public challenging. Sure, a squishy answer can be seen as an answer of sorts. As The Boss recently pointed out on X, "It's quite telling what they were willing to say and what one campaign was unwilling to say."
There are a few lyrics from the Hamilton musical that keep replaying in my mind. In one, Aaron Burr tells Alexander Hamilton to hide his views: "talk less, smile more." To which Hamilton later responds, "If you stand for nothing … what'll you fall for?"
— Tabitha Mueller
What we're reading and writing
Would Aaron Ford's policies really cost $18 billion?
Take a look at the latest polls of the governor's race.
Struggling to decide whom to vote for in the treasurer's race? This could help.
If you missed Rep. Mark Amodei's (R-NV) recent comments about his likely successor … they are something.
Congressional District 3 GOP nominee Marty O'Donnell put his career history to good use.
Are Nevada schools actually putting tampons in boys' bathrooms?
D.C. Download: Cortez Masto's midterm messaging on Trump's visit
As the Senate wound down its last week in Washington, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) was eager to discuss President Donald Trump's recent trip to Nevada. Her comments highlight which issues will be front and center ahead of the midterms. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
MR: Did you watch his speech?
CCM: I did not watch his speech, but I did see clips of it and reviewed some of the articles, thank you very much.
MR: What stood out to you?
CCM: He's clearly trying to promote something that is not true, which is that people are doing well right now. You just have to go to Nevada and actually talk to Nevadans. … People are struggling right now in a town — particularly in Las Vegas — where tourism is down. So it is amazing to me that he is going in to talk about how his "no tax on tips" is going to help our workers. But if there's a drop in tourism, if our workers aren't getting tips, that's not really helping them.
I support "no tax on tips." Our primary focus should be how we lower these costs for so many families … not on this illegal war in Iran, not on sending billions of dollars to Donald Trump's vanity projects here in Washington, D.C. … His "no tax on tips" that he got passed — it expires. It expires in the year 2028. Kind of convenient, since he's end of his term then.
But the tax breaks that he gave to billionaires that so many were talking about at his rally — those don't expire.
The legislation that I supported, "no tax on tips", that [Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV)] supported, that we passed out of the Senate, that Donald Trump did not think to sign into law — it [would have] made those "no tax on tips" permanent.
MR: What did you think about Joe Lombardo's comments that those billionaires create jobs?
CCM: I think Nevadans want somebody who their primary focus is on families there, not on billionaires. … Many businesses are struggling to stay afloat because of the high tariffs and the bad policies of this Trump administration, and so that's what Nevadans want, not just a governor, but everyone focused on how we lower costs.
MR: If Democrats take back Congress this fall, what policies can we expect to make life more affordable that the Republicans won't do?
CCM: The Medicaid costs, let's just start with that. Republicans that are in charge cut Medicaid. People can't even afford healthcare, and there are so many families in Nevada that I have met who are working parents who rely on Medicaid because they have a child with a rare disease who needs access to medication, and now they don't have that additional support. … Look at the people that attended Donald Trump's rally. They're saying the same things. They're struggling, but he doesn't really care about that.
— Mini Racker
Indy Poll Watch: This ain't a scene, it's a G— D— push poll
Are you more on the liberal side? Good news — the Nevada's governor race is tied!
Want four more years of Gov. Joe Lombardo? Again good news — he's cruising to a 10 point re-election romp!
A commonality is that both rely on polling from explicitly partisan sources. No, it's not news that candidates on either side are trying to shape public opinion by releasing their own polling. What is news is that these polls are basically all we have.
The dearth of independent public polling on major statewide races — including Nevada's governor race — is a new development this election cycle. The last truly independent polling of the governor's race was published late last year, per RealClearPolitics' tracker. I'd venture to guess things have slightly changed in the last nine months.
It's a national trend, and it can lead to wildly disparate outcomes between expectations and reality — see Abdul El-Sayed's 15-point swing between polling numbers and actual results in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary.
Prediction markets have been hyped as a sort of wisdom-of-the-crowd, market-based solution to the lack of polling, but the low volume of trades on races that are not on the national radar and the proclivity of those markets to confidently declare results way too early should be a flashing red warning sign.
If the past (2022) is an indication, expect to see myriad independent polls on the governor's race come out starting in August. In the meantime, take the polls seriously — but not literally.
— Riley Snyder
Mini Series: Reruns
📹 'Reduce, reuse, recycle' doesn't apply to endorsements — On Saturday, Gov. Joe Lombardo's (R) campaign flagged that a recent ad from Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) reused footage from Ford's 2018 and 2022 runs for attorney general. The footage featured law enforcement officials, including retired Las Vegas Metro officer and former police union leader Dave Kallas.
Kallas had originally appeared in a 2018 campaign ad defending Ford from what he called "trash" attacks from his then-opponent, Wes Duncan (R). In a video responding to the use of the old footage, Kallas said it's being used out of context to make it seem as though he is endorsing Ford. "I proudly support Governor Joe Lombardo," Kallas said, adding that Lombardo has earned the endorsement of every major law enforcement organizations.
Prerna Jagadeesh, Ford's campaign spokesperson, said the attorney general is proud to have received the support of law enforcement in the past and present, and the campaign updated its ad to more clearly reflect that. She called the Lombardo team's response to the ad a "desperate attempt" to distract from the problems with the economy.
💸 New PAC with six-figure ad spending — The State + Local Election Alliance — a national group supporting state and local candidates with a focus on "defending democracy" — started a Nevada-affiliated PAC earlier this year and spent $150,000 in ad spending, according to its latest campaign finance report. All of the money came from Lisa Mennet, a Seattle philanthropist.
The spending went toward mailers in support of candidates running for Washoe County Commission, which became a priority for the group after the commission initially decided to not certify primary election results in 2024. In the general election, the group largely plans to focus on backing candidates in Clark and Washoe counties — one particular target is Troy Regas, a Republican running for Washoe County Commission.
Although the group supports Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar (D), it tends to focus its resources on more local races and leaves statewide races to other groups. Aguilar told The Indy on Monday that this local focus is "critical" to ensuring Nevadans elect pro-democracy candidates.
🪖On the record — At the opening of a new campaign office in Las Vegas this weekend, Marty O'Donnell was asked if Congress should vote to authorize the Iran war. "I think they should," he said in audio first shared with The Nevada Independent. "They probably never will, 'cause they're so slow. This is why I think the executive branch needs to be able to do quick military action." If elected to Congress, he said he would vote to authorize the war "in a heartbeat."
He added that he does not think it's a "forever war" and that it will soon be over, saying, "They started a forever war. We need to end it." O'Donnell has previously made similar comments about the war but has not spoken about whether he would vote to authorize it.
Asked about O'Donnell's comments, campaign spokesperson Keith Schipper wrote in a text, "The terrorist regime in Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and Marty fully supports what is necessary to prevent that. This war started under Jimmy Carter and President Trump is ending it because a weaponized group of terrorists who chant 'Death to America' and want to annihilate Israel and our allies must be stopped."
👀 Calling in reinforcements — Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), one of the founders of the House Freedom Caucus, is coming to Northern Nevada on Aug. 29 to rally and fundraise for Congressional District 2 Republican nominee David Flippo.
— Tabitha Mueller, Eric Neugeboren and Mini Racker
Looking Ahead
- Thursday, Aug. 14 — Voting ends to name Nevada's newest state park
- Thursday, Aug. 27 — Attorney General Aaron Ford attends IndyTalks in Reno
A post that caught our eye:
There's nothing like seeing "Mark Amodei" on caller ID.
We'll see you next week.
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