Why Democrats are finally spending big in Nevada's governor race

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In today's edition: Just how big are national Democrats spending on the Nevada governor's race? Plus: The gambling tax fix is finally moving, another cool million for David Flippo (R) and Turning Point Action ramps up even more. 

A quiet summer has turned into an action-packed fall. In the last week alone, candidates for governor and Congress have seen millions of dollars added to the airwaves, the House packed tons of activity — including on a top Nevada priority — into a few days, and we penned half a dozen articles to help you decide who will get your vote. Read on for the most important takeaways. 

This newsletter is published every week. We want to hear from you! Email your temporary newsletter editor Tabitha Mueller at [email protected].

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Here comes the cavalry

As of Monday morning, AdImpact shows the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) has spent or reserved more than $12.8 million in campaign ads through a state-level PAC.

That buy includes $1.4 million in Spanish-language ads, and its most recent ad targets Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) on affordability.

We've been tracking the dearth of outside-group ad support for Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) since the start of the election cycle. Despite the big DGA spend, combined Democratic ad dollars in the governor's race still trail Republicans by about $24.5 million.

Ask any operative or election forecaster, and they'll tell you Nevada's governor race is one of the most competitive in the country. Yet in campaigns (and in life), money talks. So is the DGA's (late) spending in Nevada serious, and how does it compare to other competitive states?

First off, the DGA doesn't publish a list of where it spends money. With much of the money running through affiliated PACs, donations to candidates and state parties, it's hard to quantify how much has been spent in other states.

Looking only at confirmed spending, the DGA announced it would spend $10 million in Arizona's governor race in July, spent $5 million backing the Democratic candidate in Iowa, and reserved and spent nearly $5.7 million in ads in Wisconsin.

Not much is publicly available about DGA spending in Georgia, Kansas, Ohio and Alaska, but the association announced an "Expand the Map Fund" on Sept. 14. Media market size and costs also differ, which shapes where DGA dollars go.

Spending in governor races through November is still ramping up, so the spending we're reporting will likely grow over time, but so far it seems like, as The Boss keeps emphasizing, "We Matter." 

— Tabitha Mueller

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What we're reading and writing

"Why does it feel like things are pinching? Because things are pinching."

Can a Latina small-business owner with ties to Turning Point Action flip a blue seat?

Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) is pushing back on President Donald Trump's plan to put data centers on federal land. 

"You can't say that you want to win Black votes and you're not investing in Black candidates in the South," Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) said about whether national Democrats should fund a long-shot Senate candidate in Mississippi.

A 73-year-old homeless man who police said graffitied swastikas on political signs featuring California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) was caught and sentenced to 30 days in jail.

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D.C. Download: Full House wins

Which Las Vegas Democrat held the winning hand?

Reps. Dina Titus (D-NV) and Steven Horsford (D-NV) separately introduced legislation to restore the 100 percent deduction on gambling losses — a change included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that reduced how much gamblers can deduct on losses to 90 percent. In other words, a professional gambler who breaks even will still be taxed on 10 percent of their earnings.

Titus was the first member of Congress to recognize the issue. She introduced the FAIR BET Bill last summer, hoping to fix it. Lawmakers discussed the repeal at a House Ways and Means Committee field hearing in Las Vegas a few weeks later, with Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) committed to reinstating the full deduction.

That was 14 months ago. 

In January, Horsford and Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) introduced the FULL HOUSE Act, which differed slightly from Titus' bill, but had the same goal of repealing the change.

Last Wednesday, the Ways and Means committee voted 38-5 to approve Horsford's legislation and send it to the floor for a vote. When that takes place is anyone's guess.

It wasn't clear initially which bill passed out of committee. Titus's office posted a statement suggesting her bill passed, but it quickly disappeared. She later posted a video commending the committee's passage. 

Horsford put out a statement an hour after the vote, saying passage came after months of bipartisan negotiations. "No one should pay taxes on money they never earned," he said.

At a Saturday canvassing event, Titus told The Nevada Independent that she still hoped her bill would pass if Horsford's — which is attached to a broader cryptocurrency bill — does not. She also said she wasn't upset that Horsford's bill passed first but wished they could have linked up their efforts.

— Howard Stutz and Kate Reynolds

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Indy Ad Watch: Flippo the script

The ad wars have begun in the red(ish?) 2nd Congressional District. 

Former Assembly Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D-Reno) is running her first TV ad, a spot that appears to have been filmed in a machine shop and accuses her opponent of opposing higher wages for workers. Her campaign is putting $100,000 behind the buy, per Punchbowl News. 

Even so, she's massively outgunned. The GOP nominee, small-business owner David Flippo (R), is running his own new TV ad, a positive spot that features a nurse who will vote for him because of his promise to protect No Tax on Tips. He has reserved $68,000 so far, per AdImpact. 

Outside groups are tipping the scales to Flippo. The Freedom Caucus Fund reported a $260,000 media buy supporting the Republican. But even that's dwarfed by the $710,000 in TV ads that Club for Growth Action has reserved. 

Both groups are attacking Benitez-Thompson directly — the Freedom Caucus with a spot accusing her of supporting progressive boogeyman policies such as "men in women's sports" and Club for Growth with one modeled on The Game of Life board game.

Here's what else stood out this week:

• In the battleground 3rd Congressional District, video game composer Marty O'Donnell (R) had already poured millions into his race when Safety and Affordability PAC swooped in last week. The group — which, according to The New York Times, is funded by President Donald Trump's super PAC — has reserved $3.2 million in ads for October and November. 
• Lieutenant Gov. Stavros Anthony (R) launched a new TV ad last week, touting his efforts to keep transgender athletes out of women's sports. The 30-second ad features a Las Vegas mother — Deborah Earl, the COO of Power2Parent — who expresses concern about her daughter competing against transgender athletes and says that Anthony "gets the job done." 
• The Clark County Education Association, which is supporting Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), published a social media ad criticizing Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) for his past support of data centers. Union representatives said they plan to run it on TV and digital in the future.

— Mini Racker, Isabella Aldrete and Tabitha Mueller

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Mini Series: Comrade Vinny?

📚Going by the book — What's an enterprising reporter to do when a candidate doesn't respond to questions? For small-business owner Erica Neely, the Republican nominee for the Assembly District 9 race, the answers are in her self-published e-book.

• Neely didn't respond to The Nevada Independent's policy questionnaire, so the book proved vital for understanding her policy positions. For some light fall reading, check it out here. 

💸Betting on elections — A PAC backed by the gambling industry is teaming up with Turning Point Action this cycle for get-out-the-vote efforts in Nevada. The PAC, called Citizens Alliance, is looking for a Nevada field representative dedicated to ballot-chasing — a practice in which third parties collect mail ballots from voters.

• The group has invested heavily in local races in Pennsylvania and other swing states. 

❌⭕️ DSA fearmongering — Republicans are out with a new mailer painting Vinny Spotleson, the Democrat running for swingy Assembly District 41, as a far-left radical. 

• The mailer features images of Spotleson — who says he isn't a socialist, but is a member of the Las Vegas chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) — alongside images of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) and Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D). Mamdani is a DSA member; El-Sayed is not. 
• The mailer calls Mamdani and El-Sayed "extremists" and accuses Spotleson of favoring a "revolution" that includes "abolishing the U.S. Senate and Supreme Court" and "eliminating our right to vote for President," references to the platform of the DSA's national organization.
• Spotleson wrote in a text to The Indy that he "of course" doesn't support such policies — nor do Mamdani and El-Sayed — and said the mailers are Islamophobic. GSD PAC, a PAC whose name appears to reference Lombardo's pledge to "get shit done" and whose top donor, the Clark County Education Association, has publicly endorsed and backed the governor, paid for the mailers.

— Isabella Aldrete and Kate Reynolds

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Looking Ahead

• Thursday, Sept. 24  — Mail ballots are distributed to Nevada voters outside the state
• Wednesday, Sept. 30 — IndyTalks Reno Mayoral Forum

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A post that caught our eye: 

So, does this mean we get a debate?

We'll see you next week. 

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