Following Democrats’ defeats across the country in 2024, anti-establishment candidates promising to change the party’s approach have found receptive audiences in primary elections — most notably New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

But outsider candidates in Nevada — the state that gave democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) his biggest win in the 2020 presidential primary — have historically struggled to build similar momentum. 

Experts, advisers and even some candidates running this election cycle say the state’s political profile creates an uphill battle for primary challengers. Skeptics point to Nevada’s well-oiled Democratic Party machine, which shook off its own progressive takeover in 2023, as the bulwark that has kept primary challenges to a minimum, tamping down a robust, grassroots infrastructure that could help insurgent candidates.

This cycle, the closest comparison may be Alexis Hill, a Washoe County commissioner who trails Attorney General Aaron Ford in fundraising and in polls for the Democratic nomination for governor. 

Hill is one of several candidates challenging incumbents or party favorites in Democratic primaries this year, seeking to thread the needle of framing themselves as outsiders or underdogs without fully embracing the democratic socialist views held by candidates such as Mamdani.

“We are hollowing out all of our state services and our local governments, and I see rampant corruption, and I feel like I must speak up,” Hill said in an interview. 

Though she told The Indy she doesn’t identify as a progressive, she said her opponents have failed to acknowledge the gravity of the moment and described their campaigns as “politics as usual.”-

A candidate pursuing a similar strategy is Dr. James Lally, a Las Vegas-based cardiologist challenging Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) in the Democratic primary. He told The Indy he decided to run after Lee received money and praise from the pro-Israel lobby and voted for the Republican-sponsored Laken Riley Act, which makes it easier for the federal government to authorize deportation for noncitizens arrested for other crimes. 

Unlike 2024, when Lee easily dispatched a recording artist in the Democratic primary for the battleground House seat with more than 90 percent of the vote, Lally could prove more formidable. He has reported six-figure fundraising quarters on recent federal campaign finance reports, buoyed by a sizable loan to his own campaign.

“This election is going to be about the billionaire class and corporate America versus everyone else,” he said. 

Lee faces another primary challenger in Terrill Robinson, a Las Vegas-based real estate agent who supports Medicare for All, a single-payer, government-run health care system.

Ford’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment about the primary race. Catherine Clancy, a spokesperson for Lee, said that Lee had dedicated her career to Nevada and “it is clear that no one can question where her intent lies.”

Peter Koltak, an adviser for Nevada Democrats who worked on Sanders’ 2020 campaign in Nevada, said the last competitive major Democratic primaries, with strong progressive and moderate candidates, were the 2020 presidential caucus and the 2018 governor’s race.

“That doesn’t mean there isn’t space for progressives to win,” Koltak said. “We just haven’t had a high-profile primary to test it out.”

Primary challenges tough to win anywhere, especially in Nevada

Winning a primary as an underdog is difficult anywhere, but especially in Nevada, where Democratic insiders were raised in the late Sen. Harry Reid’s (D-NV) eponymous “machine,” a strong, wealthy and centralized state party.

“Candidates challenging incumbents in a primary face a very, very high bar,” said Koltak, citing their disadvantages in perceived experience, donor pool and name recognition.

This year, most competitive Democratic primaries involve incumbents. Incumbent Democratic lawmakers are facing primary challengers in six Assembly races and one state Senate race so far this year, a slight uptick from the five lawmakers challenged in 2024. Two of the candidates running this year also ran in 2024, when incumbents swept every race. 

Only four of 11 open legislative seats have multiple Democratic candidates.

Sondra Cosgrove, a College of Southern Nevada professor, said outsider candidates also struggle because of Nevada’s closed primaries, which exclude nonpartisans in most races — a problem given there are more Nevada voters registered as nonpartisan than Republican or Democrat, and their ranks are growing. 

“If somebody like Alexis Hill really wants to have a shot, we’re going to need to have open primaries where she can go talk to the nonpartisans,” said Cosgrove. 

She said Democratic leaders favor the closed system to guarantee races are decided by a smaller number of highly-committed voters wary of dark horse candidates. A ballot initiative to institute open primaries and ranked-choice voting narrowly failed in 2024.

Lally cautioned that more eligible voters in a race would require cash-strapped underdogs to spend more time and money reaching those voters. Noah Fischel, a campaign consultant for multiple progressive challengers this cycle, said further-left candidates benefited from winning “hardcore Democrats” over a more ideologically diverse voter pool.

Not all outsider candidates agree.

“I’m talking to these people who show up to meet me in Democratic spaces, who are nonpartisans,” Hill said. “They’re like, ‘I will never switch to being a Democrat.’ And I’m like, ‘Well, if you want it to change, you kind of have to.’”

Limited infrastructure to build progressive ranks

Nevada’s progressive ecosystem is weaker than other states.

Nevada has fewer college-educated voters on average than the nation, typically a solid voting base for progressive candidates. The state’s transient workforce may additionally limit organizers’ capacity to build a winning coalition. 

It’s one of a handful of states without a local, state or federal elected official currently affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Clark County Commissioner Tick Segerblom (D-Las Vegas), a Sanders supporter in 2016 and 2020, was a DSA member but the group condemned him in 2023 for voting to increase the city’s police budget. Segerblom told The Indy, “I think they have kicked me out.” 

Supporters of Sanders took control of the state party in 2021, prompting the party’s staff and consultants to resign in protest and set up a shadow operation. One of the architects of that takeover, Matthew Fonken, recently leapt into the Democratic primary for Rep. Mark Amodei’s (R-NV) open seat.

Two years later and after receiving criticism for their handling of the 2022 midterms, the progressive activists leading the state party were ousted.

Shaun Navarro, president of the Las Vegas DSA chapter, said establishment party insiders “spent a lot of time and energy defeating us, and less time actually defeating [Gov. Joe] Lombardo.”

Navarro is one of two DSA members challenging incumbent lawmakers this year, and he said he’s noticed better attendance at chapter meetings. But the group has 600 members, less than in similarly-sized cities such as Baltimore or Minneapolis, with approximately 1,000 and 2,000 DSA members, respectively.

The union factor

Some of the nation’s strongest unions are based in Las Vegas. But unlike in other states where labor groups have helped bolster anti-establishment candidates, Nevada political insiders describe the state’s unions as squarely within the political establishment.

Former R&R Partners CEO and longtime resort lobbyist Billy Vassiliadis said labor groups’ progressive political leanings do not necessarily make them support anti-establishment candidates, instead calling them “very practical.”

“They’re going to lean for those candidates they think are going to protect their union members,” he said.

But close relations between unions and the political establishment may be shifting. In 2024, the Culinary Union broke with Democratic incumbents and withdrew its endorsement of a slate of lawmakers weeks before the primary elections, after a group of lawmakers voted for a law that ended COVID-era daily cleanings of hotel rooms. One Culinary-backed candidate (Assm. Linda Hunt (D-Las Vegas) won an open Assembly primary against an establishment-backed candidate, though another union-backed candidate failed to oust incumbent state Sen. Rochelle Nguyen (D-Las Vegas).  

Ted Pappageorge, Secretary-Treasurer of the Culinary Union, told The Indy the union is hoping to run more of its own members this cycle, although he said no decisions were final.

“We’re not the establishment,” he said. “Democrat, Republican, independent, doesn’t matter. If you’re not going to support commonsense, kitchen-table issues, we’re not going to support you.” 

Outsider candidates told The Indy they’re not hopeful about winning some unions’ support against incumbents.

Lally said individual union members appreciate his message on the cost of living crisis, but their leaders appear less interested. 

“They don’t want to back insurgent candidates, if the insurgent were to lose,” he said.

Joy Hoover, an anti-sex trafficking advocate challenging Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) in Nevada’s 1st Congressional District, said she felt unions are beholden to incumbents.

“While I have met with all of them and will continue to reach out, I don’t know for the primary if that’s going to be a part of our strategy,” Hoover said.

Insurgent candidates remain hopeful

Vassiliadis said given Nevada’s many gig workers and small business owners, its voters “are more practical than philosophical,” and may be willing to vote for new or unorthodox candidates. 

Progressives or other anti-establishment candidates could win, he said, if they can seize on populist economic messages to sway residents who vote with their checkbooks.

Outsider candidates in Nevada said Mamdani’s campaign showed voters are craving new faces and a strict focus on affordability. This year is different, they say, because of Democrats’ walloping in 2024 and because of multifront crises in housing and health care costs.

Lisa Mayo-DeRiso, a strategist for Clark County Republican candidates, said Democratic challengers may succeed this year if they seize on anti-incumbent sentiment. 

“Voters often think, ‘I just want to see somebody new,’” she said.

In explaining why he’s running, Lally cited former Vice President Kamala Harris’ remark last fall that she would not have governed differently than President Joe Biden. It’s an example of national Democrats’ cautious, ineffective instincts, he said.

“We don’t want that,” Lally said. “We need change.”