I’ve spilled a lot of ink on various portions of the big, beautiful bill: Medicaid cuts, SNAP cuts, changes to clean energy incentives, no tax on tips, and more.

But the raison d’etre of the bill — and the main thing driving its march toward passage — is its permanent extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), better known as the Trump tax cuts. 

It can be harder to quantify state-by-state benefits when it comes to federal income tax — they are, as the name suggests, federal — but there are some state-specific projections we can use to better understand the tax implications of the bill for Silver Staters.

The News of the Week: Taxes

At passage, the 2017 Trump tax cuts were set to expire at the end of 2025. Democrats did not change individual tax rates when in power, so Congress now faces a tax cliff — if no action is taken, then taxes would be raised on nearly all Americans.

Trump’s big, beautiful bill would preserve the lowered 2017 rates displayed in this table from the Bipartisan Policy Center. An analysis from the independent Congressional Budget Office found that the tax benefits across the bill skew toward the wealthy — estimating that by 2027, the bottom 10 percent of earners would see their incomes fall by 2 percent while the top 10 percent would enjoy a 2 percent increase if the bill passes.

The median Nevada household earns $53,100 — lower than the U.S. average. A married couple earning that amount would pay a 12 percent tax rate under the Republican bill. If it does not pass, their tax rate would rise to 15 percent. 

The vast majority of federal income tax revenue from Nevada comes from its richest people. The top 20 percent of earners — Nevada households making more than $101,500 — represent a 70 percent share of federal tax income from the state. For those Nevadans, the Republican bill will preserve a 3 percent tax cut (for married filers on income greater than $100,500).

There are also a plethora of tax provisions beyond maintaining lowered rates. Those include:

• Maintaining a doubled standard deduction — or the amount of income you can subtract from your tax bill — of $16,500 for single filers and $33,100 for married filers in 2026. Without the bill, those deductions would each be halved.
• Keeps the child tax credit at $2,000 per child. Without the bill, it would revert to $1,000.
• Raises a pass-through deduction from 20 percent to 23 percent for business owners.
• No tax on tips, overtime and car loan interest.

The Nevada Angle

Which Nevadans benefit from the tax portion of the big, beautiful bill? It depends who you ask.

Nevadans at the top of the income heap will certainly avoid a tax hit if the bill passes. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP), a progressive think tank, calculates that the top 1 percent of Nevadans — those making more than $796,500 annually — will receive an annual tax cut of $82,590 (relative to TCJA expiration in 2026 and tax rates resetting).

The tax savings for lower-income Nevadans are, by nature of their smaller incomes, far lower. CBPP estimates that the poorest Nevadans — those who make less than $27,700 — will save an estimated $130.

Republicans argue that the bill amounts to a middle class tax cut. Ways & Means Republicans project that if the TCJA was allowed to expire, the average Nevada taxpayer would see their taxes rise 23 percent. Under their analysis, a Nevada family of four with a household income of about $76,000 would owe $1,567 in additional taxes next year if rates revert.

Ways & Means Republicans also highlighted a few other provisions — the 92 percent of Nevadans who claim the standard deduction would see that halved without the tax bill, and more than 200,000 Nevada business owners who claim the pass-through deduction would see a tax hike.

The Impact

Tax rates are not raised or cut in a vacuum — they affect how much revenue the U.S. Treasury takes in, especially relative to the country’s ballooning debt. Because the bill would add $2.4 trillion to the deficit, according to the CBO, some economists worry that borrowing costs would rise to compensate for the new debt.

Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, projected that the deficit hit from the bill would drive annual mortgage interest to go up by $730 and add $860 per year to fixed-rate small business loan interest payments.

Around the Capitol

🚵Mike Lee’s choice — Nevada public land sales were stripped from the House reconciliation bill in dramatic fashion, but that doesn’t mean the battle is over. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), the chairman of the Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee, is planning to revive the land sales in his committee’s version of the title, per E&E News. That’s set to be released Monday, so we’ll see if it includes both the Nevada and Utah provisions.

🗓️Picking the pickers — Big news for those following the internecine politicking of the Democratic National Committee’s Rules & Bylaws Committee (myself included): Nevada Democratic Party Chair Daniele Monroe-Moreno has been added as a member to the panel, which has the powerful task of setting the Democratic primary calendar. 

DNC Vice Chair Artie Blanco, another Nevadan, is also a member of the committee, bringing the Silver State’s representation up to two. New Hampshire and South Carolina, Nevada’s main competitors, also each gained a seat, bringing their representation up to two.

Monroe-Moreno has spent years cultivating relationships with fellow party chairs, many of whom also serve on the committee. Come next year, we’ll see if her and other Democratic power brokers’ efforts bear fruit. 

What I’m Reading

The Intersection: The collapsing turnout of Democratic men

Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini has a lot of fascinating maps in this post, but one notable data point. Republicans did a better job turning out their registered voters than Democrats did in every Nevada county save for Washoe. 

Democrats actually did a better job turning out high-propensity voters in Clark County than Republicans did, but Republicans won on the strength of their low-propensity voter turnout.

The Nevada Independent: On heels of Trump calling Vegas a ‘sanctuary,’ police say they’ll rejoin 287(g) ICE program

It’s a shift from Metro and Sheriff Kevin McMahill’s previous public policy on undocumented immigrants accused of crimes.

Reno Journal-Gazette: Use cattle to decrease wildfire risk? Sen. Cortez Masto proposes new grazing strategy

Cortez Masto’s bill has support from cattlemen, firefighters and counties.

Notable and Quotable

“Let’s just put it this way: nobody asked my opinion before they made this decision.”

— Longtime public broadcasting champion Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV), to Roll Call, on the Trump administration’s rescission request (for Congress to cancel spending it already appropriated) for NPR and PBS funding