Indy Elections: What Bush’s ‘04 win means for today’s GOP
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: It’s been almost two decades since a Republican presidential candidate carried Nevada in a general election. This week, D.C. reporter Gabby Birenbaum digs into some extra details from her Sunday story on how the George W. Bush campaign won the Silver State. Plus, we bring you all the best nuggets of wisdom from a few packed political panels at last weekend’s IndyFest.
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We want to hear from you! Send us your questions, comments, observations, jokes, or what you think we should be covering or paying attention to. Email Jacob Solis, your humble newsletter editor, at [email protected].
Days until:
- Presidential candidate filing closes: 6
- Nevada presidential primary: 119
- GOP presidential caucus: 121
- Election Day: 392
Scenes from the 2004 election
Some issues from the 2004 presidential campaign in Nevada are still salient. Some were left behind.
In their last presidential campaign stop in Nevada, can you name a candidate whose stump speech advocated for:
- Lower taxes
- Energy independence, including development of renewables
- More standardized testing in education
If that mix of issues has you confused, the candidate’s concluding message should clear things up.
“Free governments in the Middle East will fight the terrorists, instead of harboring them,” George W. Bush told a crowd in Las Vegas in October 2004, on the re-election trail.
My story Sunday explored how the Bush campaign won Nevada in 2004 through a data-driven turnout strategy and how the Reid Machine simultaneously built the coalition capacity to power Democrats to victory in the next four elections.
Here’s some campaign rhetoric that didn’t make it into the story.
Yucca Mountain
When John Kerry brought up Yucca Mountain in August 2004, the Democrat’s campaign thought it had seized on a winning issue. Kerry promised to not send nuclear waste to the Nye County storage facility, a position consistent with his voting record in the Senate since the late ‘80s.
Kerry accused Bush of lying on the issue. In 2000, Bush had promised Nevada Gov. Kenny Guinn (R) to veto any plans to make Yucca Mountain a temporary nuclear waste dump, but added that he would follow scientific recommendations if the Yucca site was deemed scientifically safe. In 2002, Bush approved a Department of Energy request to use the facility.
Even then-Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) acknowledged that “on this one issue, [Kerry’s] better than George Bush.”
But the Bush campaign stuck to its unfounded line — that Kerry had flip-flopped — and did not waver. In a September speech in Reno, Vice President Dick Cheney maintained that Kerry was lying about his record — and the crowd ate it up, chanting “Flip-flop! Flip-flop!”
It was part of a broader strategy to paint Kerry as a flip-flopper; Cheney had the crowd using the refrain when discussing Kerry’s opposition to the Iraq War, the Patriot Act and more.
Prescription drug debates
The candidates also clashed on prescription drugs in dueling visits to Las Vegas on Oct. 14, 2004.
In a speech to the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) national conference, Kerry dinged Bush on his 2003 Medicare reform law — which created Medicare Part D, prohibits Medicare from negotiating prices with drugmakers (which stood until 2022), and provided subsidies for private insurers to expand Medicare Advantage offerings.
“The truth is, after doing nothing to lower the cost of prescription drugs for you, the president now tells us that he’s solved the problem,” Kerry said in Las Vegas. “Right. And those weapons of mass destruction are gonna turn up any day now.”
Bush, meanwhile, attacked Kerry.
“My opponent wants to move in the direction of government-run health care,” Bush told a Las Vegas audience. “I believe health decisions ought to be made by doctors and patients, not by officials in Washington, D.C.”
We might hear that last sentence on the campaign trail next year — but by Democrats advocating for abortion rights in the wake of the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade.
— Gabby Birenbaum
An IndyFest politics bonanza
During The Nevada Independent’s annual IndyFest — a politics-and-policy-focused conference held last Friday and Saturday — we saw discussions with top Democratic and Republican operatives about 2024 and other election issues.
Here are some highlights:
From the Republican perspective:
Will President Joe Biden stay on the ballot?
- Matt Brooks, Republican Jewish Coalition CEO: “I still do not believe that come November, Joe Biden is going to be on the ballot … [Donald] Trump is leading by double digits over Biden. And I think there's a real panic setting in place because of his age and that he's just not up to the task right now. And you see the White House is doing everything they can to insulate them. He is one Gerald Ford fall away from having the whole house of cards come down.”
On how redistricting shaped the legislative map:
- Omar de La Rosa, Desert Strategy Group principal: “The way that they were drawn, for the next 10 years, Republicans might be in the superminority in both houses. Hopefully not. I think the [Gov. Joe] Lombardo team is doing a great job in recruiting good candidates. But I mean, there's a very real possibility in both houses.”
Is a Trump ticket bad for down-ballot Republicans?
- Mike Slanker, November Inc. co-founder: “The rematch I don't think really scares us as Republicans in Nevada that much. It was close the first time around, and Joe Biden's numbers were far better than they are now. And every bit of, not national polling, but statewide polling I've seen has the race [as] literally a coin flip. If the presidential race is a coin flip, we're fine.”
From the Democratic perspective:
Is the proposed 2024 abortion ballot question just a political push for higher turnout?
- Rebecca Lambe, co-founder Senate Majority PAC: “Of course not … The reality is that every single Republican who's running in the U.S. Senate race is an extremist on abortion, on choice. So this is a really important issue. It's not just an important issue in Nevada.”
What about Biden’s poor national polling, even in hypothetical matchups against Trump?
- Alana Mounce, 2024 Biden-Harris campaign ballot access director: “If you look at President Obama in 2011, The New York Times said that he was toast. There's a lot of time between now and November. And so we have a lot of time to communicate our accomplishments, our message, build the program here in the state.”
On Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) now leading the influential Congressional Black Caucus (CBC):
- Asha Jones, Horsford’s chief of staff: “While it is about the Black Caucus, it's giving him exposure, speaking everywhere — he lost his voice last week at the CBC, I had about 10 people telling me to get him tea, I was like, ‘He has tea, he has no voice, because he's been talking.’ But really trying to make sure that as you serve as a leader, that you're taking care of the people that you are leading, and making sure that their voices are heard and in their districts as well. I think it’s just expanded his kind of pulpit.”
— Jacob Solis
What we’re reading and writing
From 'worthless' to 'good friend,' Nevada Republicans reflect on McCarthy after ouster by Gabby Birenbaum
If you want to feel old, McCarthy’s eviction from the speaker’s office happened just one week ago.
New PAC sues to stop effort to add abortion protections to Nevada’s constitution by Eric Neugeboren
The “single subject” doctrine returns.
Rosen raises $2.7M, grows war chest ahead of competitive re-election bid by Gabby Birenbaum
Another quarter, another (kind of) fundraising record.
Georgia county summons Nevada fake elector Jim DeGraffenreid in trial for Trump lawyers by April Corbin Girnus, Nevada Current
The summons comes after apparent conversations between DeGraffenreid and Trump campaign lawyer Kenneth Chesebro.
The Lightning Round
☑️Some returning and new(ish) faces — Assemblyman Gregory Koenig (R-Fallon), Republican Jacob Deaville and Sen. Roberta Lange (D-Las Vegas) — see who jumped into legislative races last week in our tracker.
👂The latest #nvleg scuttlebut — Lori Rogich, an attorney and the spouse of former Iceland ambassador Sig Rogich, confirmed Monday that she is preparing to announce a bid for state Senate District 11, which is represented by Sen. Dallas Harris (D-Las Vegas). The pending announcement was first reported by Nevada Independent CEO Jon Ralston at the end of September.
🗳️Will war in Israel become a down-ballot issue? — The Lombardo-backing Better Nevada PAC made it seem so on Monday, as it sought to pressure Nevada Democrats after the Las Vegas Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) — which endorsed all down-ballot Democrats in 2022 — retweeted a national DSA statement that expressed “our solidarity with Palestine” on Saturday. That retweet appeared to be gone as of Monday afternoon, however. Separately, Nevada’s entire congressional delegation condemned Hamas over the weekend, as did several lawmakers, including Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager (D-Las Vegas).
🌳Nevada Conservation League announces new director — Kristee Watson has been appointed as the new executive director of The Nevada Conservation League. Watson, a Democrat, previously lost a 2020 race against state Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) by less than half a percentage point. Watson previously worked as the organization’s deputy director and for Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) as a grants coordinator.
🗓️Mark your primary calendars — ICYMI, a second (very minor) Republican candidate filed to run in Nevada’s presidential preference primary on Friday, ensuring that the state must hold that primary on Feb. 6, two days before the planned GOP presidential caucus on Feb. 8 (assuming no dropouts). The state Republican Party will only award delegates to candidates who participate in the caucus, making the primary essentially meaningless (and very confusing). The thing to keep an eye on: Only Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump have publicly filed to participate in the caucus — will any other Trump rivals look to capitalize on confusion and run in Nevada’s primary instead?
🧑⚖️Questions about a legal defense fund — Conservative commentator Chuck Muth has filed a complaint with the secretary of state’s office over Sen. Dina Neal’s (D-North Las Vegas) formation of a legal defense fund. The complaint focuses largely on Las Vegas Review-Journal reporting over “claims she pressured a college professor to direct federal funds for local businesses into the pockets of unqualified companies, including one owned by her friend.”
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- If the House GOP is looking for a new consensus speaker, well…
- Ah, how time flies
- What is this? A hockey arena for ants??
We’ll see you next week.
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