Indy Elections: Dems 🤝 GOP: #wematter
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: Why Dems and Republicans agree that Nevada still matters. Also, new polling and eye-opening differences in ad spending in the Senate race.
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By the Numbers:
- 91 days until the November general election (and we can finally get some sleep)
- 4 days since the RNC, Nevada Republican Party and Trump campaign lost in court again
- 4 days until Harris and 🤷 visit Las Vegas
Dems and GOP agree: #WeMatter
By Gabby Birenbaum
Does Nevada matter?
When President Joe Biden was still atop the ticket and sliding in Nevada polls, we were starting to worry about our relevance. While the state’s U.S. Senate race has been a marquee contest for both parties all along, the presidential race had seemingly narrowed down to a contest for the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
But with Vice President Kamala Harris taking the reins, Democrats argue that Nevada is back on the menu. To have multiple paths to victory, a top Democratic strategist is arguing that Harris needs to pursue a “Western Wall” strategy — locking down Arizona and Nevada to ensure she spreads her electoral eggs in varying geographic baskets.
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Steve Daines (R-MT), meanwhile, is bullish on his party’s chances to pick up a Senate seat in Nevada. A former Proctor and Gamble executive, Daines — a numbers guy — sees potential in voter registration trends, turnout data and polling, even though Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has led in polls throughout the cycle.
Read more here on how strategists are thinking about the top two races in the Silver State.
What we’re reading and writing
Hospitality workers' union endorses Harris, dismissing Trump's pledge of tax-free tips by Josh Boak, Associated Press
Union says Trump was “making a play” for votes.
Indy Explains: How would Question 1 on Nevada’s 2024 ballot affect the Board of Regents? By Tabitha Mueller
It’s deja vu all over again.
Hearing held, but no ruling yet in suit challenging Green Party’s Nevada ballot status by Tabitha Mueller
The clock is ticking, and no decision (yet) …
Judge denies Trump, GOP request to ignore Nevada mail ballots with unclear postmark by Tabitha Mueller
Third verse, same as the first.
Can Harris energize minority Nevada voters who had soured on Trump, Biden? By Isabella Aldrete
These voters say, “We got this thing in the bag.”
In first Nevada trip, Vance says Harris ‘owns every failure’ of Biden admin by Isabella Aldrete and Eric Neugeboren
“If you are in this country illegally, start packing your bags right now, because Donald Trump is coming back,” Vance said.
Indy Poll Watch
Morning Consult / Bloomberg (July 24-28)
- 454 registered voters
- Margin of error: 5 percentage points for full swing state survey
As the first of Bloomberg’s monthly polls of the presidential race in swing states to be taken after Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, this survey shows movement in the presidential race. The July survey finds Harris to hold a 2 percentage point lead — a 5-point swing in Democrats’ favor.
Harris’ favorability rating in Nevada, according to the poll, stands at 44 percent, with Trump closely behind at 42 percent. Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance polls at 34 percent favorability.
The poll found Harris winning Hispanic voters by 1 percentage point and young voters (younger than 34) by 9 percentage points. The two are tied among suburban women — a key demographic in prior elections — and Trump is winning independent voters by 8 percentage points.
Most notably, Harris is significantly overperforming Biden with key groups in their coalition. Voters have shifted:
- 19 points toward Harris (Hispanic voters)
- 5 points toward Harris (Asian + other voters)
- 11 points toward Harris (independents)
When third-party candidates are included, Harris and Trump are tied at 43 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulling 7 percent of the vote.
— Gabby Birenbaum
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: Senate discrepancy
Throughout the Senate race, Rosen has used her financial advantage to get up on the airwaves, hoping to positively define herself and attack Republican candidate Sam Brown as voters begin to tune into the race.
But while the fundraising discrepancy between Rosen and Brown is large, it’s not as big as the gulf between what each has spent on advertising. The Rosen campaign has put down $18.6 million in past and (mostly) future television spending — about 43 times what the Brown campaign has bought ($430,000 worth of advertising time) per analysis from ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Most of Brown’s ad spending was done during the primary.
Campaigns get more favorable rates for ad time than outside groups, so it’s advantageous for them to make ad reservations for the future, particularly in a state such as Nevada with so many competitive races and only two media markets, driving up the price of ads.
Outside Democratic groups also have a significant spending advantage, pouring more than $40 million to support Rosen, while outside GOP groups have spent about $21 million in the race.
AdImpact’s data shows Brown’s spending to this point as well behind the last Republican to run for U.S. Senate in Nevada. Through the end of July 2022, Adam Laxalt had spent over $1.3 million — more than three times what Brown has spent to this point. Outside spending in Nevada’s 2022 U.S. Senate race eclipsed more than $123 million, according to OpenSecrets.
— Gabby Birenbaum
TOP FOUR ADS WITH THE HIGHEST SPENDING (7/30-8/5)
Data from political ad-tracking organization AdImpact
- U.S. Senate race: WinSenate (anti-Brown) - Scam Brown
- Began airing: 7/31
- Total spend: $536,004
- Ad impressions (number of times an advertisement was seen, regardless of whether the viewer took any action): 6.1 million
- U.S. presidential race: Trump for President (anti-Harris) - I Don’t Understand
- Began airing: 7/30
- Total spend: $343,137
- Ad impressions: 8.6 million
- U.S. presidential race: Trump for President (anti-Harris) - Border Czar
- Began airing: 7/30
- Total spend: $340,191
- Ad impressions: 8.8 million
- U.S. Senate race: Win it Back (anti-Rosen) - Reckless Spending
- Began airing: 8/2
- Total spend: $295,316
- Ad impressions: 2.3 million
SPENDING SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK
— Tabitha Mueller
The Lightning Round
⚡AG asks for fake elector case to be expedited — Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford asked the state Supreme Court last week to expedite his office’s appeal in the so-called “fake elector” case. The state filed the appeal last month after a district court judge dismissed the case on the grounds that Clark County was not the appropriate jurisdiction for the case to be tried. Ford argued for the expedited ruling to deter those considering similar action ahead of this year’s elections, and because the state has until December to refile some of the charges in another jurisdiction.
🗳️ SOS publishes latest report on election fraud investigations — The Nevada Secretary of State’s Office released its second quarterly report on election fraud violations last week. The report showed that the office received 448 reports of violations so far this year, only two of which were found to be valid. There are 116 cases still open (26 percent), and 317 (70 percent) have been closed with no violation found. Additionally, since 2020, 20 cases have been referred for potential prosecution. The office’s first election fraud report, which was released in April, showed 14 prosecution referrals since 2020.
🧑💼SOS releases new website for poll workers — The secretary of state’s office added a new page to its website last week with information on how to sign up to be a poll worker. The rise of harassment against election workers — fueled by conspiracies related to election fraud — has resulted in an exodus from their positions.
💰Nevada Dems far outspending GOP on payroll — An analysis from Decision Desk found that the Nevada Democratic Party is outspending its Republican counterpart on salaries by almost 10 times ($2.1 million vs. $226,000), the third highest rate in the country. The discrepancy reflects the much larger apparatus of the state Democratic Party, which is also playing out between the Trump and Harris campaigns (Harris has 13 field offices in the state, while Trump has one).
1️⃣ Endorsement watch Pt. 1— U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) endorsed Republican John Lee in his bid to unseat Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) in Nevada’s 4th Congressional District.
2️⃣ Endorsement watch Pt. 2 — Rosen endorsed independent Greg Kidd, who is challenging Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District.
— Eric Neugeboren
Looking Ahead
- Saturday, Aug. 10: Vice President Kamala Harris is capping off a tour of battleground states alongside her yet-to-be-announced running mate with a rally in Las Vegas. This will be Harris’ seventh trip to Nevada this year.
- Wednesday, Aug. 8: Elko County is meeting to discuss whether or not the county will hand count ballots for the November general election.
— Eric Neugeboren and Tabitha Mueller
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- There’s a Mamma Mia meme for every occasion.
- Please, no video calls.
- Merry soon-we-will-know who the Dem VP pick is day! How are you celebrating?
We’ll see you next week.
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Editor’s note: This story appears in Indy Elections, The Nevada Independent’s newsletter dedicated to comprehensive coverage of the 2024 elections. Sign up for the newsletter here.