Indy Elections: What can we read from the election turnout tea leaves?
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: Our long statewide nightmare is over; the primary-caucus turducken is now finally behind us. But with final turnout numbers available at last, what can we learn from the people who showed up to vote in elections that “didn’t matter?” Plus, a new podcast mailbag, and RFK Jr. takes on the Super Bowl.
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Days until:
- Candidate filing opens: 20
- Regular primary Election Day: 119
- Election Day: 266
Does record primary turnout mean anything?
By Sean Golonka
The results of Nevada’s presidential primaries (and caucus) last week were staggering, albeit unsurprising.
The presumptive nominees scored dominating victories — President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary with more than 89 percent of the vote and former President Donald Trump won the Republican caucus with more than 99 percent. In the only contest that really mattered (yes, putting aside the delegates that Biden and Trump each swept up), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley lost to no one.
One potentially surprising outcome: turnout in the primaries beat all-time records for caucus turnout in Nevada. (The GOP caucus turnout of about 60,000 votes was not a record-setter, despite Trump’s claims to the contrary.)
On the Democratic side, primary turnout reached nearly 135,000, beating the 2008 caucus record of 118,000. On the Republican side, primary turnout surpassed 80,000, topping the 2016 caucus record of 75,000.
Despite the lack of competition, the change to a primary — away from the traditional low-turnout caucus — for the first time in four decades helped boost voting.
Here’s how it happened.
Mail ballots were the main driver
Unlike the party-run caucus, which relied almost exclusively on in-person voting during a short block of time on a Thursday night, the primaries were run by state and local officials following the same election laws that govern other Nevada elections and offer a lengthy window and multiple ways to participate.
Because of a 2021 law establishing universal mail voting, every Nevada voter registered as a Democrat or Republican received a mail ballot. Though voters returned just 15 percent of the 1.1 million mail ballots sent out last month, they were instrumental to the record turnout.
In the GOP primary, nearly 61,000 Republican voters cast ballots by mail that were accepted for counting (officials rejected a small share of mail ballots in each primary for a variety of issues, such as a missing envelope or stray marks). That amount alone exceeded the roughly 60,000 votes cast in the caucus.
In the Democratic primary, the number of mail ballots cast (nearly 108,000) was higher than the number of votes cast in each of the past three caucuses.
There is also some historical evidence from Nevada’s past history of presidential nominating contests to further prove mail ballots’ relationship to turnout. In 1996, Nevada Republicans held a primary — a temporary move away from the caucus — conducted entirely via mail ballots. That contest saw more than 140,000 voters cast ballots, ahead of the records set in each party’s primary this year.
Do the records mean anything?
Yes, the raw totals set records. But it may be difficult to judge how much of that is really a product of voter enthusiasm.
In-person turnout alone was about 27,000 in the Democratic primary and 20,000 in the Republican primary, closer to the abysmally low numbers of the 2012 caucuses than any other point of comparison.
Turnout in this year’s primaries as a percentage of the number of voters was actually lower than in past years. In the previously turnout record-setting 2008 Democratic caucus, about 27 percent of registered Democrats voted, compared with less than 23 percent in this year’s primary. In the 2016 GOP caucus, more than 17 percent of registered Republicans voted, compared with less than 15 percent in this year’s primary. (Editor’s Note: These numbers are based on the latest available data on active registered voters in each party, and may not account for changes leading up to the election such as voters changing party using same-day registration.)
Even with a caucus, where voting required more steps than checking the mail and dropping off an envelope, those were more competitive contests (Trump on the rise in 2016, Barack Obama against Hillary Clinton in 2008), and they garnered more votes from partisan voters at the time.
Are there any takeaways for November?
Partisan observers may be quick to draw general election conclusions from those record numbers or the margin of victory of each contest. The Nevada Democratic Party, for example, described the turnout numbers as proof Democratic voters are ready to deliver Biden a win in November and that enthusiasm for Trump is low.
But recent history shows why such extrapolation is difficult. Democratic and Republican turnout in the 2012 general election was higher than in 2016 and 2020. Despite lower turnout in the caucuses, particularly on the Democratic side where Obama had the nomination locked up on the way to his second term, a higher share of Democrats turned out in November that year than in other recent years.
So remember: Don’t extrapolate these turnout numbers to expect anything particular come November. But one thing is clear from the primary and caucus turnout: Nevadans are increasingly favoring mail ballots as their preferred method of voting.
What we’re reading and writing
Inside the 3-year strategic plan guiding Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo’s administration by Sean Golonka, Jacob Solis and Tabitha Mueller
Finally answering what “the Nevada Way” might look like.
How much does money matter in close Nevada legislative races? By Eric Neugeboren, Sean Golonka, Jacob Solis and Tabitha Mueller
Reading state campaign finance reports so you don’t have to.
Prosecutors rebut Nevada ‘fake electors’ efforts to dismiss case, change venue by Sean Golonka and Jacob Solis
In which who mailed what and when becomes the linchpin.
Trump sweeps Nevada Republican caucus in race with no major challengers by Jacob Solis and Jannelle Calderon
Who could have seen this coming?
‘The Trump train is a-comin': Nevada Republicans descend on GOP caucus sites by Tabitha Mueller, Jacob Solis, Eric Neugeboren and Tim Lenard
An inside look at the kind of voter who showed up to caucus for Trump last week.
On the Trail: “The post-election question bonanza ”
This week, a special Friday bonus On the Trail brings you inside the minds of a bleary-eyed election team, fresh off the primary-caucus week that was. Joined by Editor/CEO Jon Ralston, we broke down listener questions, pontificated on what could come next, and made Super Bowl predictions that aged super well (no need to investigate further).
You can listen to On the Trail on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
Indy Ad Watch
American Values PAC (RFK Jr.) — Super Bowl
Fair-weather football fans (and, apparently, the wider Kennedy family) were surprised Sunday by a $7 million super PAC ad for independent presidential Robert F. Kennedy Jr. that — beat for beat — evoked a 1960 ad for John F. Kennedy. The Super Bowl ad caused a brief surge in public interest for Kennedy, who has been spending the last few months looking to secure enough support state-by-state to actually make it onto the November ballot (including Nevada).
In a puzzling dichotomy, Kennedy issued an apology to his family on platform on the X, formerly Twitter, stating the ad was created “without any involvement or approval from my campaign.” But on his account, Kennedy had also pinned a post of the ad, which could be viewed directly above the apology.
The Lightning Round
🏃 Fetterman goes west — Or, more accurately, southwest (ish), but Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) is set to be in Northern Nevada on Saturday to stump for the Biden-Harris ticket. He’ll be making stops around Washoe County to “highlight the stakes of the 2024 election for democracy,” according to the Biden campaign. In 2022, he won a U.S. Senate seat in a swing state that, like Nevada, will be key to Biden’s re-election prospects.
❓ Could Adelson spend big for Trump? — During his caucus victory tour last week, former President Donald Trump spent time dining with billionaire Miriam Adelson in Las Vegas, per Politico. The meeting could mark a prelude to a major injection of cash for Trump in the general election from Adelson, per the story — a move that would mark a shift for the casino mogul’s widow, who has to this point avoided spending on politics to the same extent as her late husband, Sheldon Adelson.
— Jacob Solis and Sean Golonka
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- Chiefs win. Just as the Deep State planned.
- I think we can all agree that you are not allowed to pick “the local economy” when someone asks who will win a football game.
- Explaining to everyone at the party that the comeback player of the year vote was just like the Corrupt Bargain of 1824.
- As we have been saying…
We’ll see you next week.
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