Indy Elections: Trump ramps up?
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: How former President Donald Trump’s campaign is hoping to woo voters in the Silver State, legislative campaign ads are going live and a whole bunch of legal updates.
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By the Numbers:
- 70 days until Election Day
- 150 years of UNR
- 160 days until the 83rd legislative session
- 100,000 balloons were dropped at the DNC, which, if they were filled with helium, would be enough to lift about 10-20 adults into the air. For more fun science reading, click here.
Trump campaign boosts Nevada infrastructure
By Eric Neugeboren
When President Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee for president, former President Donald Trump’s team reportedly viewed Nevada as a surefire victory.
Now, one month after Biden’s departure from the race and amid polls showing a narrowing race in Nevada, the Trump campaign is ramping up — increasing voter outreach efforts in the state and featuring appearances by Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), all while pro-Trump advertising has skyrocketed in the past month, closing a large Democratic lead before Biden dropped out, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking organization.
The campaign now has five offices open in the Silver State but that number still significantly lags Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign infrastructure (she inherited all of Biden’s staffers) and is two offices short of how many the campaign had in 2020. The Harris campaign, in conjunction with the Nevada Democratic Party, has 14 offices statewide and more than 100 full-time staffers.
Read more here on the state of the Trump campaign in Nevada.
What we’re reading and writing
Indy Explains: Banning slavery? Question 4 on the 2024 Nevada Ballot by Isabella Aldrete
Between 2016 and 2022, eight states have passed similar measures.
In Vegas, Trump touts proposal to end taxes on tipped wages by Eric Neugeboren, Isabella Aldrete and Gabby Birenbaum
In which the candidate asks: “Can we get the Culinary Union to maybe vote for Trump?”
RFK Jr. still likely to appear on Nevada ballot despite suspending campaign by Eric Neugeboren
Kennedy could still be a spoiler.
Cannizzaro to introduce legislation protecting IVF in Nevada by Isabella Aldrete
Legislative Democrats highlight their priorities ahead of the November general election.
How Nevada colleges and universities are encouraging students to vote by Kelsea Frobes
#YoungVotersMatter.
NV Supreme Court declines to weigh in after Washoe County recount controversy by Tabitha Mueller
We’ll see you at the December court hearings.
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: Legislative Dems launch campaign ads
Legislative campaigns are officially in full swing.
Nevada Legislative Victory, a PAC largely funded by Democratic state senators, released an ad last week as part of a six-figure ad buy. The ad takes aim at Jill Douglass, the Republican opponent of Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas). The ad and an accompanying website attack her ties to a right-wing anti-abortion Christian organization.
New Day Nevada, another pro-legislative Democrats PAC, also began sending mailers to residents of Henderson’s Senate District 5 supporting Democratic candidate Jennifer Atlas, who is challenging Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson).
Next week, Cannizzaro’s campaign is launching a positive ad focused on her experience as a former prosecutor, efforts to crack down on fentanyl traffickers and support of police funding.
TRENDS WE’RE FOLLOWING
Buoyed by big ad buys from Senate GOP-leadership aligned group OneNation and Club for Growth-linked Win It Back PAC, Republicans are closing the ad-spending gap in Nevada's U.S. Senate race in August.
After Republicans won the ad spending week last week for the first time this cycle, each side has about $2.5 million in ad spending booked for this week. Many politicos believe election data is a bit like wearing white — people only care after Labor Day.
While groups such as the National Republican Senatorial Committee have kicked in millions, Democrat-aligned groups, including the better-funded Rosen campaign, have significantly more ad reservations booked for each week after Labor Day. We’re watching to see if more national cavalry arrive to help close the gap.
Data from political ad-tracking organization AdImpact
A COUPLE OF TIDBITS
- Jefferson Rising Fund, a super PAC funded by a Texas oil and gas company purchased more than $250,000 in ad time ahead of the general election for advertising opposing Rosen. The ad buy comes as the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers Association PAC has spent more than $3.2 million in anti-Rosen advertising since 2023, according to data from AdImpact.
- The Harris campaign launched a new ad in Nevada and Arizona Tuesday morning focused on housing. The one-minute ad focuses on Harris’ housing situation growing up in San Francisco, her housing-related work as a prosecutor and her campaign’s housing policy.
— Gabby Birenbaum, Eric Neugeboren and Tabitha Mueller
The Lightning Round
🧑⚖️ Opponents appeal lawsuit on petition to protect abortion access — Opponents of a ballot petition seeking to protect access to abortion in the state Constitution have appealed a lower court ruling that allowed the petition to move forward. The petition has qualified for the November ballot and will appear to voters as Question 6. The appeal, filed in state Supreme Court on Friday, reiterates arguments that the petition circulated to voters contained an inaccurate description of what the measure would do and an unfunded mandate. The court approved a broader abortion ballot question focused on abortion protections challenged by the same opponents in April.
💰Super PAC shuffle — A super PAC called “Together for Nevada’s Future” — registered at the very end of the second quarter with the Federal Election Commission — went up with an ad supporting GOP Senate candidate Sam Brown last week, its first and only ad of the cycle thus far, per AdImpact. Registered in Texas by a law firm that supports Republican candidates, we won’t know about donors until the next FEC deadline in October. A previous super PAC supporting Brown — Duty First Nevada PAC — shut down during the July 4th weekend.
🤝 Trump endorses GOP candidate in CD3 — Trump last week endorsed Drew Johnson, the Republican challenging Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District.
📃 RNC appeals lawsuit on ballot postmarking rules — The Republican National Committee (RNC) filed an appeal in the Nevada Supreme Court last week regarding its lawsuit to stop counting mail ballots that have an unclear postmark. The lawsuit relates to the state law that allows mail ballots with an unclear postmark to be counted, as long as it is received within three days of Election Day. Oral arguments in the appeal have been set for Oct. 8, less than one month before the election. A Carson City judge denied the RNC’s request for a preliminary injunction last month.
🧑⚖️ RNC appeals federal lawsuit on post-Election Day counting — The RNC filed another appeal last week after a judge dismissed its effort to stop the counting of ballots received after Election Day. The appeal was filed in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.
🚘 Brief filed in NV Supreme Court opposing Uber-backed ballot question — The groups against the initiative to cap Nevada attorney fees at 20 percent of all settlements filed a brief last week in the state Supreme Court. The brief makes similar arguments to a lawsuit filed in lower court, which was dismissed and appealed to the high court, saying that the initiative misleads Nevadans by not disclosing the measure’s full implications on the ability to receive the best legal representation. Uber has poured $5 million into the initiative, which opponents say is a way to stymie sexual misconduct lawsuits the ride-sharing company is facing.
— Eric Neugeboren, Tabitha Mueller and Gabby Birenbaum
Looking Ahead
- Tuesday, Aug. 27: Google and Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo will announce a new investment in Nevada at 2:30 p.m. at UNR.
- Tuesday, Aug. 27: Make the Road Nevada, a Latino voter advocacy organization, is hosting a town hall focused on housing at 6 p.m. in Las Vegas.
- Monday, Sept. 2: Happy Labor Day! Hopefully, you can take a break and relax!
- Wednesday, Sept. 4: Nevada’s Republican senate candidate Sam Brown is having a discussion with conservative political commentator Ben Shapiro in Las Vegas.
- Wednesday, Sept. 4: The Nevada Independent is hosting an IndyTalks event in Reno at 6:30 p.m. on the future of Lake Tahoe.
- Friday, Sept. 6: U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) is joining Brown at Las Vegas’ Bagel Cafe for a campaign event.
— Tabitha Mueller
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- Is this the definition of take one for the team?
- When the pop culture social media account makes the wrong connection.
- The mystery of the surprise guest is solved.
- Happy election season to all.
We’ll see you next week.
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Editor’s note: This story appears in Indy Elections, The Nevada Independent’s newsletter dedicated to comprehensive coverage of the 2024 elections. Sign up for the newsletter here.