Beyond the Twitter effusions declaring Sen. Dean Heller worse than Benedict Arnold and a Dead Man Walking in ‘18, no one should really be that surprised by his vote Tuesday to begin debate on repealing Obamacare.

Heller supports repealing The Affordable Care Act. The right vote for him is to vote to debate that. He can make that case.

But.

His problem is that he has voted so many different ways in the past and that he said, without explanation, he would vote against debate just a few weeks ago. And that’s not all: Nevada’s senior senator is not just affirming an opaque process by voting to move forward – even though he will oppose a straight repeal – but he will be seen by some as having caved (“Look, he wants to remain a U.S. senator, doesn’t he?”) or flipped (choose your verb) because of how he has handled this.

Considering the toxic atmosphere surrounding this issue and considering the skill with which the left has rallied the troops and pummeled senators such as Heller for months ($8.8 million on TV!), his main hope now is that November 2018 (or June?) looks very different than July 2017. And that is far from unlikely because often voters have the memory span of the lead character in “Memento.”

The velocity and ferocity of reaction makes it seem now that Heller can’t possibly survive this – just check social media if you want to see some real anger and vitriol. And no one really wants to step back and see that he will have votes on the straight repeal and perhaps other amendments that his current detractors want him to cast.

I still believe Heller will vote against anything that guts Medicaid – or even is perceived as doing so. But whether that helps him politically considering there are now ads being written that call him “the deciding vote to take away your health care,” or words to that effect, is another issue.

My staff is trying to get a comment from Gov. Brian Sandoval, who is against Medicaid cuts. But he is likely to dodge comment on this procedural vote. (Whether we are in Carson City or DC, we are always Waiting for Sandoval.)

I remain convinced that Heller has dug his own grave on this issue by either not being clear or not saying anything until Tuesday. I am posting this during the motion to proceed, which will pass. Please check this story for updates on the votes.