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Immigration activists hope anger over family separation will spark turnout in the midterms

Humberto Sanchez
Humberto Sanchez
CongressImmigration
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Immigration activists hope that anger over the White House policy that separated children from their parents when they crossed the border illegally will pay dividends at the polls in November, including in Nevada’s 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts.

According to a poll of voters in 61 swing congressional districts across the nation commissioned by immigration activists, 73 percent of voters said they were “very angry” or “somewhat angry” about separating undocumented children from their families. Among the ethnic groups polled, 81 percent of Latinos were “very angry” or "somewhat angry,” as were 79 percent of Asians and Pacific Islanders, 83 percent of African-Americans, 72 percent of Native Americans and 69 percent of white voters. 

Those up-for-grab areas include the pair of Democratic-controlled districts in Nevada. The poll, published Tuesday, didn’t break down responses by individual district, but offered a portrait of parts of the country in which Democrats can challenge the Trump administration’s family-separation policy, which has since been reversed, and other immigration stances without doing undue risk to their seats.

The poll was commissioned by America’s Voice, Mi Familia Vota, Indivisible, the NAACP and the AAPI Civic Engagement Fund. It was conducted by political opinion research firm Latino Decisions. It surveyed a total of 2,045 in 61 competitive districts in 22 states around the country. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. A minimum of 400 registered voters were interviewed from each racial and ethnic group. The margin of error for responses from within each racial or ethnic group was plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. The survey was conducted between July 5 and July 14.

Matt Barreto, co-founder and managing partner of Latino Decisions, said in a conference call with reporters that the family separation issue is part of a series of immigration issues that has animated voters, but cautioned that it is difficult to predict what the levels of turnout will be.

“It seems that each month there is something new that seems more horrifying than the month before in terms immigration policy or rhetoric towards communities of color and I do think that that is transferring over into anger,” Barreto said. “We cannot predict what the turnout rate will be, but we can say from this poll that we are seeing increases in anger and a definite recognition of hostility and racism against communities of color and traditionally that does relate to higher levels of turnout.”

In the 3rd Congressional District race, Republican Danny Tarkanian is running against Democrat Susie Lee. The seat is currently held by Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen, who is running for the Senate against Republican Sen. Dean Heller. The 4th Congressional District race is a rematch from 2014, with Republican Cresent Hardy facing Democrat Steven Horsford. The seat is held by Rep. Ruben Kihuen, a Democrat, who decided not to seek re-election after being accused of sexual misconduct, which he has denied.

The districts were chosen to be part of the 61 swing districts because of their ratings by The Cook Political Report, CNN and Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. All rate Nevada’s 3rd and 4th district races as “leans Democrat” except for Cook, which rates the 4th District race “likely Democrat.”

The family separation issue started in April, when the White House announced that it would prosecute all people who entered the country illegally, including those seeking asylum, in what the administration called a “zero tolerance” policy. The move resulted in children being separated from their parents in order to comply with a 1997 court ruling known as the Flores settlement that bars the government from jailing migrant children for more than 20 days. A federal judge last month ordered the administration to reunite the roughly 3,000 families that were separated by July 26.

Among the people who have been most angered by such policies are young voters, those between 18 and 35 years old, according to Barreto. Energizing such voters would be critical for Democrats across the country and in Nevada because their turnout has been lower in the past two midterm elections than during presidential election years.

“The levels of anger and frustration are exceptionally high among voters under 35 and I think you’re seeing that anecdotally in all of the activism that is playing out,” Barreto said, adding “that could bode well” for Democrats.

The poll found that 61 percent of those surveyed said they would definitely vote in the 2018 midterms. That includes 47 percent of Latinos, 44 percent of Asian/PI, 55 percent of African Americans, 49 percent of Native Americans and 66 percent of white Americans. The poll also found that in the swing districts, 51 percent would vote for a Democrat, while 38 percent would vote for a Republican.

The poll also found support for the DREAM Act, which provides a pathway to citizenship for young, undocumented immigrants, with 79 percent in support. It found that a comprehensive immigration overhaul package garnered support of 73 percent of people in swing districts, and that 64 percent opposed the construction of a $25 billion, 50-foot wall along the entire 2,000 mile U.S.-Mexico border.

Barreto sought to make the case that supporting these issues is good politics for Democrats in swing districts and cited former Nevada Democratic Sen. Harry Reid, who in 2010 survived a difficult re-election effort, in part, by embracing the DREAM Act and other pro-immigration positions.

Frank Sherry, the executive director of America’s Voice, also argued that Democrats should “lean into” pro-immigration issues.

“They should stand up proudly and they should say ‘we’re for a welcoming state, we’re for pro-immigrant policies and we are also for policies that allow all Americans to achieve the American dream,'" he said. “Voting like and talking like Republicans is not a very positive way to go forward if they want to generate enthusiasm among their base and win over independents who may not agree with you on every issue, but they want to know where you stand.”

Sherry called a vote last week on a non-binding GOP-drafted resolution passed by the House and expressing support for Immigration and Customs Enforcement “a cynical strategy to try to set candidates up in a way that they can divide and conquer.”

The vote was an attempt by House Republican leaders to put Democrats on the spot after some in their caucus called to get rid of the agency amid a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Rosen was one of 18 Democrats who voted in favor the measure.

A spokesperson for Rosen, Ivana Brancaccio, said that while “Congresswoman Rosen doesn't agree with some of the language in this resolution,” her vote was meant to recognize “the hard work of our law enforcement officers and doesn't support efforts to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement.”

Disclosure: Susie Lee has donated to The Nevada Independent. You can see a full list of donors here.
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