By Daniel Hansen

Our Legislature is in a special session to address the $1.2 billion deficit we have because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic shutdown we imposed on ourselves to combat the disease. By way of our state Constitution, we must have a balanced budget and so the legislators are looking at hard-to-make cuts. The pain will be real with lasting implications as education, mental health and other vital services are stripped down. Less openly, but not surprisingly, there is talk of “increased revenue streams” — or in realspeak, increased taxes. 

Simultaneously, Gov. Sisolak just rolled back some of our reopenings and mandated that bars close and restaurants reduce capacity and institute other measures because of the “latest COVID-19 case data, advice from national and state medical experts, and business noncompliance reports”. Increasingly there is concern that we will follow the example of California: reverse course and shut down more of our economy as COVID cases increase. 

Remember when our goal was to “flatten the curve?” Remember how we were told that we were not trying to eradicate the disease, but instead slow its spread so that we could prepare our healthcare system to absorb the infected patients? Is that not why we crushed our economy (Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the United States) and closed our schools (Nevada consistently ranks near the bottom in academic achievement)? But now we are talking about shutting down again while simultaneously discussing increasing taxes? Who are we going to tax? The out-of-business restaurant owners? The closed gyms or salons? The failing casinos?! Mining and technology cannot constantly be turned into tax targets without eventual adverse effects. 

What we need is true leadership that rises above the hysteria surrounding COVID and is able to keep in perspective the larger picture and balance our state’s total well-being. Yes, public health and new cases are important, but so are the 3,459 child protective service referrals that have not been submitted because educators and coaches and other mandatory reporters are not interacting with children (the numbers when compared to last year from March to May, according to the Division of Child & Family Services, DHHS State of Nevada). So are the students not getting access to reliable nutrition or education resources (Clark County School District reported lost contact with 4,370 students when they transitioned to remote learning). So are the individuals with medical conditions not refilling their medications or getting cancer screenings because of the lockdown. So are the increasing numbers of people with anxiety and depression. So are the families facing bankruptcy and eviction because they have been forced to stay home. The list goes on… 

Obviously, we do not have all the answers regarding COVID. It can be a devastating disease and does inflict real suffering on Nevadans. Along with several brave colleagues, I volunteered to work in the New York City metro area at the height of their COVID spike and helped run an intensive care unit for several weeks. I lived and saw firsthand the severity of this disease. But I also know that we have inflicted tremendous and long-lasting pain and suffering on ourselves because of our response to COVID. Children are falling behind academically with lifelong implications (especially children in lower socioeconomic situations). Businesses are being forced into bankruptcy. People are losing their homes with permanent financial implications. Health metrics of all sorts are regressing. Mental health is facing massive budget cuts precisely when it needs more support. 

Yes, we need to be aware of and respond to the threat of COVID. But at some point we must ask ourselves if the cure is worse than the disease. There have been 596 COVID related deaths in Nevada (at the time of this writing). To put that in perspective, in 2017 (most recent year state information is readily available), there were 6,417 deaths from heart disease, 5,283 from cancer, 1,633 from lower lung disease, 1,496 from accidents, 1,137 from strokes, 779 from Alzheimer's disease, 676 from drug overdoses, and 636 from the flu/pneumonia. Yet for none of these have we even considered a response as draconian as we have for COVID.

To be fair, COVID is a new disease and we responded based on limited data. To make matters worse, many of our predictions and models proved to be horrifically inaccurate. But now data is accumulating and we can move forward with more perspective and evidence. Indeed, looking at countries that did institute harsh economic lockdowns versus those who did not suggests that perhaps there is not as much of an impact of COVID spread and mortality as we would like to admit. 

For all the economic and societal pain we inflicted on ourselves in order to ‘flatten the curve’, are our numbers better? Sweden refused to shut down their economy and schools, and has numbers very comparable to ours (as do many European countries such as the UK, France, Spain, and Belgium, though admittedly higher than their immediate neighbors). As for the discussion involving school reopenings, look around the world. In none of the countries where school has resumed have they seen significant COVID spikes. In fact, increasingly the scientific evidence suggests children are far less likely to get and transmit COVID — including to at-risk teachers. 

Perhaps the biggest question is: when does this end? What is our end point? A vaccine? No new cases?  Are we to shut down every time there is an increase in new cases? What if the hospitals are not full? What if the death rate stays stable? When do we stop wearing masks? Is social distancing here to stay? Will schools ever return to “normal?” 

The public is growing tired of the hysteria and lack of transparency. People are willing to make sacrifices that make a difference, but false prediction after false prediction results in a village of citizens less attentive to the cries of “Wolf!”. Faced with looming economic sanctions, tax increases and forced closures, many business owners will refuse to comply with arbitrarily selected designations of essential versus non-essential. Mandated closures with guaranteed economic ruin provide a powerful incentive to roll the dice and face a potential fine rather than lose a lifetime of work. Many will have no recourse but to take this to the courts for prolonged legal proceedings with potentially billions in economic damages. 

Perhaps as a harbinger of things to come, a defiant 77-year-old barber in Michigan recently refused to shutter his barbershop despite his governor’s mandate to close. After being publicly criticized, fined and losing his barber license, he took the issue to court and the Michigan Supreme Court unanimously ruled in his favor, memorably stating: “It is incumbent on the courts to ensure decisions are made according to the rule of law, not hysteria.”

This is especially poignant considering that our “state of emergency” is based on a projected emergency and we have never been in an actual state of emergency. Our state healthcare system is not and has not been overwhelmed. We successfully flattened the curve to provide time to prepare for future cases. The only real state of emergency we are facing is the dying faith we have in our leaders and in their projections. 

How long will the citizens of Nevada, the vast majority of whom want what is best for their own local communities and are more attuned to those needs than Gov. Sisolak and his advisors, continue to yield to an increasingly arbitrary and whimsical mandate when they see the actual consequences of the policies? As opinion columnist and attorney Orrin Johnson asked in a recent article in The Nevada Independent, “are we now so myopically risk-averse that we will all simply accept this guaranteed long-term damage [to our communities]”?

It is time to balance the state’s total well-being with the threat of COVID. We cannot continue to react and live in fear. Gov. Sisolak would be wise to democratize his strategy and involve the Legislature and local leaders far more than he has. The COVID pandemic - while very real and serious - needs to be kept in perspective. Nevadans are a proud and independent minded people and if Gov. Sisolak does not recognize that, I suspect he will face increased resistance to his mandates, frank civil disobedience and a barrage of lawsuits. 

Daniel Hansen, M.D. is a fifth-generation Nevadan, husband, father, small business owner and local physician.