By Michael Raponi

A new narrative is needed for students fresh off the starting blocks with a high school diploma in hand.

That narrative should include a laser focus on preparing many of them for middle-skill jobs, those jobs requiring education beyond high school but less than a four-year degree. According to the National Skills Coalition, which analyzes data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and state workforce agencies, 48 percent of jobs in Nevada will require middle-skills through 2024.

The Lumina Foundation supports this premise and has established a challenging goal where 60 percent of Americans will hold a postsecondary credential by 2025 due to the globalization of a knowledge-based economy. Lumina reports that 46.9 percent of Americans aged 25-64 currently hold such a credential.

But the problem is too many students right out of high school continue to chase what for most is a very elusive four-year degree.

First, for most college students that do graduate, there’s no such thing as a four-year degree. Call it a six- or seven-year degree, yes. But completion in four years is anything but reality for the majority. By far.

A case in point is the National Clearinghouse Research Center’s annual Signature Report, released in December. The report shows the completion outcomes for the fall 2011 cohort, comprised of nearly 2.3 million degree-seeking students who started their college journey that same year at all types of postsecondary institutions. After six years, the results show a completion rate of 56.9 percent. Although this is a modest increase compared to the 2010 cohort, the completion rate is still less than 1 percent higher than the pre-recession high of 56.1 percent reported in 2009.

Looking at another source of information and according to the National Center for Education Statistics, 54.9 percent students graduated from four-year colleges over the six-year period ending in academic year 2014-15.

Nevada fared a bit worse comparatively. Forty-seven percent of full-time, degree-seeking students graduated from four-year public institutions over that same time, according to the Nevada System of Higher Education. The graduation rate has improved over the last 10 years, but only by three percentage points.

Any uptick in student outcomes is a good thing. But these marginally-improved results in college completion, whether looking at state or national data, are disconcerting when one considers the enormous financial and human capital investments expended nationwide targeting college and career readiness efforts.

And then there’s the performance of key subgroup populations. Blacks and Hispanics comprise nearly 50 percent of 12th grade students in the Silver State, yet since 2005 the four-year college completion rates of both these subgroups have nominally declined—the completion rates of African-Americans dropped from 31 percent in 2006 to 30 percent in 2015 and the completion rates of Hispanics dropped from 40 percent to 38 percent over the same time frame. This warrants close attention.

These results are unacceptable considering the costs of higher education, from out-of-pocket expenses for students and their families, to lost grant funds, to suffocating student debt that must be reconciled at some point. Not to mention the missed gainful employment opportunities for that vulnerable 18-24-year-old age group. 

Complete College America (CCA), an alliance of states and college systems collaborating to increase completion rates, calls the current situation The College Completion Crisis, where, among its membership, 5 percent of students earn an associate degree in two years and 19 percent of students complete a bachelor’s degree in four years. The average loan debt incurred by students who do graduate is $30,100, according to CCA. Think about the loan debt accumulated by all the students, including those who don’t graduate—an amount pegged by many sources at well north of $1 trillion. Talk about a money pit.

One solution lies in placing a much higher premium on shorter-term postsecondary programs that include an academic and technical core. Students that enroll in these programs can see the light at the end of the tunnel upon entering the tunnel. Although there are hundreds of such high-quality programs offered by Nevada’s colleges, for a myriad of reasons students are not completing them in high enough numbers. 

Earning associate degrees within three years (150 percent of normal time) is especially low, where two-year colleges in Nevada reported a 13 percent graduation rate in 2015. Granted, many students transfer to four-year colleges to continue their education, and the system rightfully accounts for those transfers. But regardless of how you cut it, the sub-baccalaureate degrees and credentials that students could earn in far greater numbers are simply not being earned. This is a big miss.

That said, over the last ten years the numbers of students earning associate degrees has steadily increased, a very positive sign. But the number needs to grow much higher when considering how many students fall off the map in failed pursuit of four-year degrees. Plus, fewer than seven hundred certificates were awarded in 2015-16, another area primed for growth.

To be sure, many middle-skill jobs pay well and are embedded in career pathways, where opportunity for advancement is significant; advancement opportunities in the absence of more formal education is minimal for other middle skill jobs. It is incumbent on higher education to be fully transparent by differentiating between the two so students are rightfully informed as to what they are getting in to. But continuing one’s education after high school to obtain skills leading to a reasonable paying job, even without immediate advancement opportunities, is better than chasing a four-degree that is so far out of reach one comes up empty handed and in debt up to one’s ears.

A far-reaching informational and marketing campaign is needed to better inform students, parents, high school counselors and business and industry that students that earn these credentials can contribute mightily to a skilled workforce. The credentials need to be viewed in a high esteem by all stakeholders. These actions and more would support the state goal of increasing by 800 per year the total awards conferred by higher education.

The plethora of reports and metrics defining college completion is enough to make your head spin. But regardless of where you draw your information, there’s no denying the trend lines point in the same direction: roughly 70 percent (or much more) of degree-seeking students do not complete a four-year degree in four years; a majority in Nevada don’t earn a degree in six years; completion rates are low and are either declining or stagnant for key minority populations; student loan debt continues to skyrocket; higher education costs continue to outpace inflation; and employers continue to press their case for skilled-worker shortages. It doesn’t add up.

This is a pivotal time to show many students a different way up the career ladder, where the first rung after high school can be something other than taking aim at a four-year degree. Describing the status quo as a crisis is anything but an exaggeration.

Michael Raponi is a former director at the Nevada Department of Education with thirty-three years’ experience in career and technical education and workforce development. He currently writes guest articles covering a variety of topics and may be contacted at [email protected].