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UPDATE: Trend continues of more Dems switching to GOP than vice-versa

Jon Ralston
Jon Ralston
Ralston Reports

Updated, 8:45 AM, 1/4/22:

More than two-and-a-half times as many Democrats changed their party registrations to Republican in Nevada during December, according to figures from the secretary of state.

About one and a half times more Dems switched to nonpartisan as did Republicans. (Those Independent American party numbers below surely reflect many who thought they were switching to nonpartisan, and Dems lost more there, too.)

I will be tracking this all year. The numbers for last month:

Democrat to Republican: 350

Republican to Democrat: 142

Democrat to nonpartisan: 587

Republican to nonpartisan: 395

Democrat to IAP: 195

Republican to IAP: 150

Democrat to Other: 11

Republican to Other: 16


All major party branding problems are equal, but some are more equal than others.

To wit:

More than two and a half times as many Democrats have switched their voter registrations to Republicans as vice-versa during the last three months, a statistic with ominous portents for Democratic candidates.

The numbers since September also show that one and a half times as many Democrats switched to nonpartisan as did Republicans – numbers also reflected in how many major party voters would rather be members of “The Jedi Party” or some other minor or essentially nonexistent party.

Here are the numbers, via the secretary of state:

Democrat to Republican: 1,912

Republican to Democrat: 736

Democrat to nonpartisan: 3,555

Republican to nonpartisan: 2,262

Democrat to IAP: 1,025

Republican to IAP: 1,017

Democrat to Other: 2,524

Republican to Other: 1,647

So what does this mean? Some thoughts – inserting caveat that this is just three months of stats and it is a long way before November 2022:

---I am sure Dems were hopeful that the Trump brand would have caused more Republicans to flee than Democrats. But the Biden brand is now proving toxic or appears to be – at least in 2021.

---These numbers are relatively small considering the 1.8 million registered voters in Nevada. But if this pattern continues well into 2022, it could well be the canary in the coal mine for a red wave.

---I still believe most of those going to the Independent American Party think they are registering as independents.

---The “Other” number should worry the Dems, too. I’ll keep an eye on that pattern, too.

I have often said demographics are not destiny, and as always, the Democrats (not the socialists) will be better at executing than the Republicans next year. But national atmospherics and math matter, and these numbers reinforce that even though Republicans seem poised to have an inferior slate of candidates, most of them will have a chance if this continues.

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