Approximately 444,000 Nevadans, or more than a quarter of the state’s workforce, could theoretically be covered by the No Tax on Tips provision of the Republican megabill. 

But the number who will actually see more money in their pockets is likely far lower. 

That conclusion is based on a Nevada Independent analysis of a list of tipped professions affected by the policy and released by the U.S. Treasury Department. The Nevada Independent cross-referenced this list of occupational codes and titles with 2024 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data estimating employment across the state. 

Experts suggest that the actual number of tipped workers in Nevada is much smaller, closer to 5 percent or a little more than 75,000 people — roughly equal to the number of Nevadans who work as wait staff, maids and gambling dealers combined. 

The discrepancy is likely due to the Treasury casting a wide net in terms of who could qualify. 

“This is pretty much the broadest workable list of occupations given what we see in the data,” John Ricco, associate director of policy analysis at the Yale Budget Lab, told The Nevada Independent. “Not everyone who works in these occupations will get tips.” 

President Donald Trump first proposed No Tax on Tips while campaigning last year in Las Vegas, courting the region’s many hospitality workers. The promise has since become a priority for the state’s congressional delegation, which is also working to ensure that the policy that expires in 2028 becomes permanent.

No Tax on Tips works by reducing tipped workers’ taxable income by up to $25,000. Under the new measure, a single Nevadan who brings in $30,750 in 2025, including $4,000 in tips, and takes the $15,750 standard deduction would have taxable income of $11,000 instead of $15,000. That would boost their refund by about $500 when they file next year.

Many of the workers who would qualify already make too little or receive too many tax credits to owe taxes, and will not pocket extra cash due to No Tax on Tips. Others will be a few hundred dollars richer. Higher earners who would otherwise be on the hook for more federal taxes will see bigger upsides.

Payroll taxes, which fund programs such as Social Security and Medicare, are unaffected. 

The Treasury Department did not respond to The Nevada Independent’s request for additional clarifications, but noted on the list that “certain occupations within the … code may not have customarily and regularly received tips on or before December 31, 2024, and therefore would not be included.” 

In practice, this means that many of the Nevadans whose job titles are on the list will not actually benefit from the tax relief provision, especially in some of the most common occupations listed. 

Murkiness about who qualifies

The Treasury list aims to address possible loopholes in the law, for instance, if a wealthy executive tried to reclassify their salary as a tip. But workers in the occupations listed have to actually make tips to qualify. 

Ricco, who has worked with national data and sample tax returns, pointed out that even for occupations that commonly receive tips, such as restaurant workers, not everyone in that specific occupational category actually earns them. 

This is apparent when looking at some of Nevada’s most common professions. Though tens of thousands of Nevada workers are classified as “Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand,” the home movers who might be tipped for their services make up only a fraction. Similarly, a barista might collect a $1 tip on each morning latte, but the drive-thru attendants also classified under “Fast Food and Counter Workers” are unlikely to do the same. 

Most of the occupational codes listed by Treasury line up with those used in the BLS data. But a handful of differences add to the complexity. 

For one, several codes and titles listed by Treasury such as “Shampooers,” do not appear in the Nevada BLS data. The Nevada Independent corrected for this by substituting data for essentially equivalent jobs when possible, using “Clergy” for “Event Officiants,” “Home Health and Personal Care Aides” for “Personal Care and Service Workers” and “Tour and Travel Guides” for the combination of “Tour Guides and Escorts” and “Travel Guides.” 

Other Treasury-assigned codes conflict with the BLS data. For instance, the code Treasury lists for “Sports and Recreation Instructors” is used by BLS for “Commercial Pilots,” who do not generally receive tips. One of the codes provided for “Roadside Assistance Workers,” which could apply to tipped tow truck drivers, is used in Nevada for the much broader category of “Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers.” These numbers have been excluded from the analysis. 

In an August letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Nevada’s Democratic members of Congress called for “maximum clarity for filers regarding how to determine what occupation they serve in and how to determine eligibility.” 

The Treasury Department must publish its finalized list of occupations (which it stated “will be substantially the same”) by Oct. 2. 

“Ground zero” for impact

Whether 5 percent or 29 percent of workers ultimately qualify, No Tax on Tips is sure to affect Nevada, which has one of the nation’s highest shares of tipped workers of any state.

“You don’t need to run any numbers to know that Nevada, just given what we know about its industry mix and its occupational mix, that this is a state that is going to be ground zero for examining the impacts of this policy,” Ricco said. 

The state’s Democratic members have found some common ground with the president while continuing to push for changes to the tax policy. Soon after the Treasury released its proposed list, Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) praised the Trump administration and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) expressed approval for the inclusion of entertainers.

In statements to The Nevada Independent, Cortez Masto and Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) said they plan to keep advocating for No Tax on Tips to apply to as large a share of Nevadans as they can.

“While I remain committed to pushing to pass my bipartisan bill to make No Taxes On Tips permanent, I’ve been pushing the IRS to take a broad interpretation of the current tax exemption and ensure it helps the most workers possible,” Rosen wrote. 

The influential Culinary Workers Union Local 226, which has called for fixes to the law that would cover automatic gratuities and make the policy permanent, also expressed agreement with the Treasury list.

“We think the list looks about right,” Culinary Union Secretary-Treasurer Ted Pappageorge told The Nevada Independent in an interview. “About 35 percent of our members are tipped earners and covered by that list.”