Considering the sad state of presidential politics, it’s easy to believe the nation’s voters have given up on the idea that candidate quality actually matters. 

However, just because this year’s presidential race is a contest between two highly unpopular candidates doesn’t mean voters have completely abandoned expectations of decency and quality from those running in down ticket races. Indeed, while such expectations are pretty much a lost cause at the top of the ticket, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest the usual coattail effect of the presidential race isn’t going to be as large a factor as normal in swing states. 

For months now, former President Donald Trump has shown a polling advantage in many of those key states, such as Nevada — which is a noteworthy achievement, considering his legal turmoil and prior political baggage. And while plenty of things could (and will) change between now and November, such a consistent lead inspires an obvious question for political consultants, pundits and candidates regarding the trouble Democrats likely face in 2024.

After all, such a consistent lead inevitably leads some to wonder if states such as Nevada have suddenly become MAGA Country.  

Well, no. Nevada’s likely not measurably more MAGA than it was in 2020. If the polls truly reflect voter sentiment — which is always a big “if” in Nevada — it certainly could mean Trump finally wins a crucial battleground state that he’s lost twice before. However, Trump’s position in the polls doesn’t seem to reflect a growing popularity among once-skeptical voters as much as it demonstrates a growing dislike for President Joe Biden. 

While that difference might feel pedantic to some, it’s a difference that will matter greatly for Republicans elsewhere on the ballot. 

Digging into the data from recent polls, it’s clear that both major presidential candidates are unpopular among voters. Trump’s main advantage in key swing states comes from the fact that he is trusted slightly more on the economy and immigration than President Biden, even though voters are highly skeptical about his positions on other important policy issues. Trump is further aided by the fact that voters are worried about Biden’s age and mental acuity, regardless of whether or not Democrats believe such concerns are justified or fair. 

None of that indicates a growing satisfaction with Trump’s MAGA agenda as a political template for other candidates or the GOP more broadly. Indeed, even while leading in the polls, Trump still has a net unfavorable rating among voters, indicating that Democrats would be in a far better position had they simply put forward a more politically attractive candidate than Biden. 

Understanding this, it’s not difficult to imagine a November in which Trump wins a state such as Nevada, but strong Democratic candidates down ticket still manage plenty of victories. 

In fact, voters have already demonstrated a willingness to “split tickets” in large enough numbers to ruin the partisan advantage top-of-ticket wins historically provide. In the 2022 midterm elections, for example, Nevada voters elected Republican Joe Lombardo as governor, but showed no qualms in soundly rejecting firebrand Republicans who hoped to ride his coattails (and a potential “red wave”) into other statewide offices. 

In other words, there’s little evidence to indicate that voters are ready to fully embrace a GOP fashioned in the image of Trump, despite his position in the polls. For Republicans, this is especially true in races where the Democratic candidates aren’t nearly as handicapped by age or political reputation as Joe Biden. 

U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), for example, has benefited from a strong reputation as a moderate and bipartisan legislator and, as a result, she’s fared better in recent polls. At this admittedly early stage of the race, the possibility of a Rosen win and a Biden loss in the Silver State is completely within the realm of possibilities. 

Indeed, recent headlines from Arizona indicate this phenomenon isn’t exclusive to the decidedly independent voters of Nevada. A poll conducted by YouGov for CBS News shows Republican Kari Lake down by double digits against her Democratic rival, despite the fact that Trump leads Biden in that very same poll by 5 points. 

Simply put, many swing-state voters might be ready to reject Biden — but they remain highly skeptical of the Trumpian wing of the GOP. 

Nevada Republicans voting in the upcoming June primary would do well to consider the possibility that just because Trump is currently ahead in the polls doesn’t mean voters are buying red trucker hats in droves or ready to become card-carrying members of Trump’s fan club. Much to the chagrin of some Republicans, Trump’s polling doesn’t indicate that important swing states are suddenly becoming part of deep-red MAGA Country. 

Instead, purple state electorates are largely as independent and swingy as ever, and winning over those skeptical voters is going to take far more than merely belonging to the same party as their preferred presidential candidate. Candidate quality is actually going to matter — even if it doesn’t look like it at the top of the ticket.

Michael Schaus is a communications and branding expert based in Las Vegas, Nevada, and founder of Schaus Creative LLC — an agency dedicated to helping organizations, businesses and activists tell their story and motivate change. He has more than a decade of experience in public affairs commentary, having worked as a news director, columnist, political humorist, and most recently as the director of communications for a public policy think tank. Follow him at SchausCreative.com or on Twitter at @schausmichael.