If they can manage to come across as only slightly less unhinged than Republicans, Democrats might actually have a pretty good election year in 2026. 

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. So-called “wave” elections don’t always pan out as expected, even when the only real requirement for winning is being marginally less objectionable than one’s opponent. 

And here in Nevada, with our huge swath of unaffiliated voters, it’s going to be particularly difficult for pollsters, journalists and political strategists to get a solid read on what to expect throughout campaign season. After all, neither party in Nevada has more than 30 percent voter share, with nonpartisan and minor party voters holding a sizable plurality. 

It’s fair to point out that Nevada’s automatic default to nonpartisan status for new voters is responsible for much of this trend — but it certainly can’t explain it all. 

Evidence that Nevada voters aren’t staunch partisans is quite apparent from recent election outcomes. In 2024, for example, we saw Nevada voters support abortion access and a voter ID proposal — two ballot issues generally seen as belonging to opposing sides of the political aisle. Similarly, President Donald Trump won the Silver State that year, while Nevada voters simultaneously sent Democratic congressional incumbents back to Washington, D.C. And that’s to say nothing of our divided government on the state level. 

Clearly, we’re not opposed to subverting partisan expectations in this state. 

Considering that voter registration data shows the major parties roughly neck-and-neck in terms of voter share, perhaps such mixed electoral results should be expected — regardless of the reasons behind our growing share of nonpartisans. Perhaps such mixed electoral results are merely the consequence of a voter base that’s evenly divided between the two parties rather than a large portion of swingy independents floating between the two. 

However, Nevada’s voter registration breakdown reflects national trends close enough to give us a hint that many of those unaffiliated voters are, indeed, purposefully refusing to identify with either party. A recent Gallup poll, for example, shows that a record high (45 percent) of voters nationwide now identify as independents — roughly the same percentage of voters who are registered as unaffiliated or with a minor party here in Nevada. 

The recent decline in voter share for the Democratic Party in Nevada also reflects broader national trends. In every one of the 30 states that track voter affiliation, Democrats lost ground between 2020 and 2025. The struggle both parties have experienced on the national level to grow their ranks with younger Americans is similarly evident in Nevada’s registration patterns, indicating there’s something more at work than a mere motor vehicle registration quirk.

One would think the parties might look at some of that data and consider ways to move toward the sort of big tent politicking that used to be commonplace in American politics. 

However, they don’t seem to be doing so en masse — and it’s easy to see why. Because one party or the other tends to win elections even when huge swaths of moderate voters aren’t thrilled, people’s growing disdain for the political duopoly is largely ignored by candidates, strategists and incumbents. After all, it’s not really necessary for candidates in close races to be broadly representative of the overall electorate, they just need to be slightly less offensive than their opponents. 

It’s effectively “the lesser of two evils” being used as a campaign strategy rather than a mere complaint among disaffected voters. 

On its face, it would also seem as if such an environment would create a cultural moment where some third party could rise up and appeal to that huge swath of nonpartisans or antipartisans who now dominate the voter rolls. As the old Libertarian adage goes, maybe now is the “libertarian moment.”

But in truth, it’s probably not even close. 

In 2015, for example, the Libertarian Party should have been able to capitalize on America’s deep dissatisfaction with our binary political options. Hillary Clinton’s 52 percent unfavorable rating among voters was the second worst in presidential history for a candidate at the time. Donald Trump’s 61 percent was the worst. 

Surely, if there was ever a year for the Libertarian Party to prove to America that it was ready to be a major contender, that was it. 

So, what did Libertarians offer voters that year? Well, they kicked off their annual convention with a naked guy dancing on the main stage, then selected a candidate who was so gaffe-prone that serious journalists were often left speechless. And considering the party’s more recent internal struggles, it’s probably safe to assume it isn’t going to be the third party coming to the rescue of today’s politically homeless voters. 

Lamentably, that means it’s up to the few reasonable people within the major political parties to try to steer their partisan factions back toward the democratic mainstream. Certainly, there are a notable handful of politicians from both sides of the aisle trying to do precisely that. Unfortunately, it doesn’t always play well among the activists, emotive partisans and influencers who so often try to control the primary process. 

The result is a drift within both parties toward unappealing partisan extremes on the national and local levels — and for a great deal of competitive races this year, that means all a candidate needs to win is to appear just slightly less unpalatable than “the other side.”

Judging by the underperformance of Republicans and Democrats in recent years, however, even that bar might not be low enough.

Michael Schaus is a communications and branding expert based in Las Vegas and founder of Schaus Creative LLC, an agency dedicated to helping organizations, businesses and activists tell their story and motivate change. He has more than a decade of experience in public affairs commentary, having worked as a news director, columnist, political humorist and most recently as the director of communications for a public policy think tank. Follow him on Twitter @schausmichael or on Substack @creativediscourse.