Campaign ads tend to depict Nevada's economy as either reaching new heights or swirling down the toilet bowl, but in reality, Nevada is slightly outpacing its projected tax revenue.

At a Tuesday meeting of the Economic Forum — a panel of private sector officials that makes major state budget decisions — financial experts said the state surpassed revenue projections by about $165 million from last July through April. 

However, two-thirds of that amount is attributable to technical reasons, such as changes in when taxes are collected, meaning the actual overestimate in collected revenue is likely about $60 million, about 1 percent of the state's annual budget. 

It's good news for state lawmakers ahead of the 2029 legislative session, when the forum will again approve revenues for the next two-year budget.

Despite the positive numbers, there is still widespread angst in Nevada about cost of living. For example, a 2025 UNLV survey found many more Nevadans view themselves as worse off financially compared with a year ago.  

It comes one year after the Economic Forum expected a slowdown in revenues from various state taxes, which economists said at the time were in part because of the Trump administration's trade policies. This caused the panel — whose tax revenue projections must be used by lawmakers when crafting the state budget — to lower its earlier projections, the first time since 2009 that it did so.

The data provided Tuesday was not as expansive as usual. Because of various factors, including the state cyberattack last year and the transition to a new tax collection system, financial experts did not provide detailed information on how the latest revenue data compares with expectations.

However, they did provide high-level information and detailed comparisons to how revenue compares with the same time last year, giving a sense of Nevada's general economic trends.

When economists approved the estimates last year, they were in large part basing them on wariness about revenue trends from the state's sales and use tax. However, through the end of April, these revenues were up more than 7 percent from the year before, not including revenue gains tied to technical reasons.

The state's gaming percentage fees, which make up about 15 percent of total revenues, are also slightly overperforming compared to the year before. Gaming revenue increased in March, even though travel to Southern Nevada remained down.

"Recent trends in the state's two largest economically sensitive revenue sources have shown some improvement," said Susanna Powers, a deputy fiscal analyst for the Legislative Counsel Bureau. "This may cautiously suggest that tourism-related activity in Las Vegas has improved somewhat compared to earlier in this fiscal year."

The state is also likely benefiting from certain tax credits not being redeemed. In last year's projections, it expected the redemption of $36 million in tax credits for the A's stadium in Las Vegas, but that is no longer expected. The team has not yet used any public money for the stadium.

Tuesday's report on state revenues followed other good news on the employment front. 

Nevada has led the nation in job growth for 10 straight months, according to David Schmidt, the state employment agency's chief economist. In the year leading up to March, jobs in Nevada grew at the highest rate in the country, more than double the next highest state. It was also first in job growth in many sectors, including manufacturing, business services and private education.

The state's efforts to diversify its economy also appear to be paying off. Although Nevada still boasts the highest share of leisure and hospitality jobs, that share has decreased more than any other state in the country in the past decade.

However, its unemployment in March of 5.3 percent was only lower than Delaware and Washington, D.C., though it fared much better in the labor force's participation rate.

"Five percent unemployment is not a number that I look at and I feel a lot of trepidation," Schmidt said. "I like to say that it's higher than other states, but it's not high."