For years, Nevada has ranked near the bottom of all states in unemployment rate — and there are few signs of that changing.

Since the start of 2022, the Silver State’s unemployment rate has never exceeded 5.8 percent or fallen below 5 percent, marks that are well behind most other states. According to the latest federal unemployment data, 45 states had unemployment rates under 5 percent.

But is there significant cause of concern? Or is the stagnant rate expected? According to experts who spoke with The Nevada Independent, it’s a mixed bag.

The underlying data shows the job trends are not necessarily signs of a recession. For example, most people are unemployed because of factors outside of losing their jobs, such as struggling to find their first job or looking for new work after voluntarily leaving their previous job. Other positive signs are that wages are generally outpacing inflation and the typical length of unemployment is decreasing.

David Schmidt, the chief economist for the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation, said in an interview that there are also benefits to a stagnant unemployment rate.

“It means that an employer who's looking to expand can find workers,” Schmidt said. “It is kind of a close to normal kind of place to be in.”

However, certain sectors are suffering downward trends — particularly construction, retail and wholesale — and a lack of significant recent private investments in Nevada could spell trouble for the state long term.

Schmidt also noted that the way the unemployment rate is determined — a survey of households — could naturally lead to more stability. In a state with a relatively small population such as Nevada, there are fewer data points.

“I kind of suspect that the model starts to struggle a little bit when the states get smaller because of that lack of information, and it tends to assume a little bit more that things are pretty steady, absent a really strong signal one way or the other,” he said.

Still, uncertainty abounds as to how the trends may play out in the coming year.

“It’s almost like we’re hanging on a knife’s edge,” said UNLV economist Andrew Woods. “Is this the steady state — based on all the changes that have happened to the economy over the last couple of years — or are we just perceiving a very narrow window in time and this is actually part of a larger trend which could result in more job loss?”

Trouble matching jobs to Nevadans

One key challenge, according to experts, is matching open jobs to people looking for work.

Given that the share of Nevadans who are employed or looking for work is slightly above the U.S. average (but the state still has a high unemployment rate), there are challenges in finding jobs for people looking for work.

State data also shows people with less education are becoming a growing part of Nevada’s unemployed population, while more educated Nevadans are finding work easier.

“Employers want to hire, and there are people who are looking for work,” Schmidt said. “But not every person is exactly the same or comes with the same education, training experience. And so I think we might have in some cases a bit of a mismatch.”

Additionally, economic trends vary significantly by region. 

In its most recent survey of job seekers in Nevada, the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research found this mismatch was particularly evident in Northern Nevada, where respondents noted struggles in having the necessary skills and training to fill open positions.

On the other hand, respondents in Southern Nevada noted the most trouble in finding jobs at all.

One cause for concern, according to Woods, is there has been a recent dearth of large-scale business investments in Nevada, except for data centers. He attributed this to the uncertainty that remains in Nevada’s economy.

“It doesn't mean that in the current condition, the Nevada economy is in bad shape,” Woods said. “But it could be indicative of where the economy is headed over the next year or two years, especially if there isn't further large projects coming online, or major new employers moving here or growing here.”

What sectors are succeeding, struggling?

Although all sectors have fully recovered from the pandemic, some industries have lost jobs in the past year.

Most notably, construction jobs are down 5 percent from 2024. During a meeting earlier this month of the Economic Forum — a state panel of private-sector economists that makes budget predictions — Schmidt said the downturn is likely because the struggling housing market has led to less construction activity.

Despite some ongoing large construction projects — such as the Brightline rail system and A’s baseball stadium — there have been few new ones, a worrying sign for Southern Nevada in particular because construction is a main driver of the region’s economy.

The leisure and hospitality sector — the top employer in Nevada — has grown modestly in the past several years, though it showed strong numbers in September, the latest available report.

Statewide, the sectors with the most growth this year are in private education and health care services — which mirror national trends — although this growth has not materialized in Southern Nevada.

Woods said he expects health care to be the fastest-growing sector during the next decade, but similar pitfalls emerge in filling those jobs. 

“Their biggest impediment is the availability of job training and skill training,” Woods said.