Drew Johnson’s victory in the Congressional District 3 Republican primary was a surprise to onlookers in Washington, D.C. 

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) had language ready for two of his opponents but had not bothered to draft a press release for Johnson winning in advance, two sources with knowledge of the situation confirmed. (The NRCC denied that they did not have a release prepared.)

But it wasn’t a shock to him.

“I’ve basically been running for almost four years in almost the same district,” said Johnson, a 44-year-old tax analyst, columnist and conservative policy wonk, referring to a 2022 run for Clark County Commission that he lost by less than half a percentage point to a well-funded incumbent. “You had two guys who spent a million dollars plus on TV. We spent hundreds of thousands of dollars reaching out to voters individually.”

Johnson beat the aforementioned “two guys” — video game composer Marty O’Donnell and former state Treasurer Dan Schwartz, as well as former state Sen. Elizabeth Helgelien — despite being significantly outraised and outspent. Both independently wealthy, O’Donnell — the preferred pick of Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) — and Schwartz entered the race in 2024 and used their personal fortunes to advertise on television. 

Meanwhile, Johnson (who did pour $300,000 of his own money into his campaign in spite of having a far lower net worth than his opponents) declared his candidacy in May 2023, giving him more than a year to knock doors, attend local Republican club meetings and encourage get-out-the-vote efforts through ballot harvesting.

It was a strategy, he said, modeled after Nevada Democrats and their allies such as the Culinary Union. And it worked — in a low-turnout primary with four serious candidates, he won with about a third of the vote, beating second-place Schwartz by more than 3,000 votes. Clark County turnout for the primaries was a paltry 16.3 percent.

Endorsed by a few members of Congress, state senators and Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony (his wife’s boss), Johnson lacked the big-name stamp of approval from Lombardo or even former President Donald Trump, who declined to enter the primary fray but endorsed in neighboring Congressional District 4.

But local experts said Johnson’s 2022 Clark County Commission run and long lead time gave him an advantage.

David Damore, a political scientist at UNLV, said Johnson’s name identification likely boosted him — but cautioned against reading too much into a low-turnout primary where the vote was split in so many directions.

“Thirty percent is not exactly a strong party endorsement,” Damore said.

Now, Johnson will face Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV), a formidable fundraiser who has won three straight elections in the competitive Southern Nevada district, which leans Democratic according to the Cook Political Report and which outside Republican groups are increasingly bearish on after dropping more than $15 million to no avail in 2022. 

But Johnson — a libertarian-leaning Republican who has had plenty of criticism for Trump over the years — believes he is a better candidate to take on Lee than firebrands from past cycles such as former pro wrestler Dan Rodimer and frequent candidate Danny Tarkanian.

“Somebody running as a really hard-right person against Susie Lee doesn't work,” Johnson said. “People understand that this district is kind of more small-l libertarian than anything, and I'm pretty reflective of that vibe or ideology that the district has. I think I'm a better fit than the people who have run against her in the past.”

Who is Drew Johnson?

Johnson grew up in rural eastern Tennessee (“imagine where Dolly Parton’s from”) and was raised by a single mother who had to work two jobs to support her family. He said he grew up in a trailer home and lived out of his car at one point while starting his career — a story he says he hopes resonates with residents of Las Vegas, a place he said people move to “to live their American Dream.”

Johnson has spent nearly two decades working in conservative think tanks and outlets, spending time at groups like the National Taxpayers Union, the American Enterprise Institute and The Washington Times. Much of his research highlights waste, fraud and abuse in the federal government — he is most famous for using public records to calculate climate champion and former Vice President Al Gore’s home energy use in Tennessee.

He moved to Southern Nevada in 2015 because his wife, looking to start a business, wanted to move somewhere friendly to small businesses. Johnson and his wife, Sarah, started the Vegas Golden Knights “victory flamingo” fan trend of throwing plastic flamingos onto the ice after wins. 

He’s a big fan of the city’s Chinese and Ethiopian restaurants, frequenting Chinatown and Rainbow Blvd. An avid hiker (he and his wife hiked to Everest Base Camp six months ago), he enjoys the local trails in Las Vegas and Laughlin. And he’s a frequent visitor at the Pioneer Saloon in Goodsprings.

Johnson’s years of public conservative writing make his opinions on a variety of topics easy to find for fans and opposition researchers alike, from his support of gay marriage to opposition to tariffs to saying oil companies’ tax rates are too high.

So why go from advising Congress on policy to trying to be a member? Johnson says it’s because he believes he can be a more effective watchdog from the inside and that too many members of Congress lack policy depth. 

“It sounds Pollyanna, but I really wake up and say, ‘How can I advance liberty today?’” Johnson said. “What can I do to get government out of the way?”

To that end, he has put a significant amount of his own money into the race. Johnson loaned his campaign $300,000 over the course of the primary — though he is not obligated to spend it and can return what is unspent back to himself. A similar dynamic played out in his 2022 commission race — Johnson loaned his campaign $100,000 after the primary, but paid himself back after the race was over in December.

His personal financial disclosure places his net worth at between about $218,000 and $641,000.

As a longtime observer of Congress, he is not naive to the relative lack of power of back-bench freshmen. He said constituent services would be a significant focus — an area where he accused Lee of having “fallen off” based on conversations he had with voters on the trail who complained Lee’s office had been unresponsive. 

Lee’s campaign noted that she was one of five members of Congress to be nominated for a 2024 Democracy Award for constituent service from the nonpartisan Congressional Management Foundation, and her office has closed more than 7,000 cases and returned more than $31 million to Southern Nevadans through casework.

True to libertarian form, he said the current members of Congress who impress him the most are Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), two libertarians who frequently find themselves as the lone “no” vote on bills that every other member supports, particularly on national security. Massie, nicknamed “Mr. No,” is virulently against government spending and often the government himself, voting against everything from disaster relief to a resolution condemning antisemitism. 

Johnson said that though both can be overly combative, he respects how principled they are.

“When Massie is voting for 434-1, I'm not going to say that I'm always going to be 433-2 along with him,” Johnson said. “But there will be times where I'm sure that that will happen.”

That skepticism of his own party has frequently extended to Trump. In posts from his now locked personal account on X, Johnson called Trump a “socialist” during the 2016 race, called his presidency an “embarrassment” in 2020 over a federal execution during the lame-duck period and said Joe Biden’s 2020 victory was “an endorsement of humanity, restraint & kindness.”

But this year, Johnson — who locked his account on X over death threats — endorsed Trump for president on Jan. 11, knocked doors for him during the caucus and attacked primary opponents for their own past Trump criticism.

Is the about-face an electoral necessity?

Johnson (who responded and explained each post in an email) said the endorsement comes from Trump being a better candidate than Biden on every issue he cares about, even if he still disagrees with him on issues such as tariffs. He said if both are elected, he would call Trump out when he’s taking actions that don’t advance fiscal conservatism and said he would be more independent-minded than Lee — though Lee herself is one of the more bipartisan members of Congress, breaking with her party on about 9 percent of votes in 2023, tied for 11th among 213 House Democrats, according to a Roll Call analysis. 

But Johnson also said he wants to be in Congress to help move the Republican Party beyond Trump, who can only serve one more term as president and is likely running in his last election.

“We've got to figure out — when there's not this kind of cult of personality — what does the party return to?” Johnson said. “Does it follow Trump and become more populist? Does it become more like what I would like to see, which is a more free market, limited government, small-l libertarian, big tent party? That's what I'm hoping to help create.”

Policy positions

If elected, Johnson said the issue he would be most excited to tackle is Social Security.

Social Security trustees’ annual report projected that if Congress makes no changes to the program, its trust fund will be depleted by 2035 — though through tax revenue, the Social Security Administration would still be able to pay 83 percent of scheduled benefits, according to the left-leaning Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.

There are a number of ways this shortfall could be addressed — more immigration, for example, puts less pressure on Social Security by increasing the number of workers paying into it, the trustees note.

Alternatively, the majority of House Republicans believe the retirement age should be raised from 65 to address the coming solvency challenge.

That’s an opinion Johnson has held in the past — in a 2016 tweet on his private account, he said, “65 yr olds…could be working, but don’t b/c of failed policy.”

Today, Johnson says that he believes Social Security can be made solvent without raising the retirement age through a mix of auditing the Social Security Disability Insurance rolls, which contain about 4 percent of Americans, to remove people he says are improperly using it, and cutting other programs and returning the subsequent savings to Social Security.

“I'm sure the Democrats just can't wait to beat up on me and every Republican for Social Security,” Johnson said. “But I'm taking a very realistic approach.” 

True to form, it’s an issue the Lee campaign believes they can attack him on.

“Drew Johnson has never actually put in the work to help Nevadans, and now he wants to go to Congress to turn his extreme positions into law like gutting Social Security and healthcare programs that help families and seniors live, banning abortion, and making Nevada the nation’s nuclear waste dumping ground,” Lee spokesperson Kevin Winslow said in a statement. 

Johnson has not called for an abortion ban, and said the 2022 Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade “appropriately” left the question to the states. He said he would vote against both a national abortion ban and any government funding for abortion services.

Despite abortion access powering Democrats, including Lee, to electoral victory in 2022, he believes he can make a stronger countercase.

“She's the extremist because she supports the use of tax dollars to fund late-term abortions,” Johnson said, echoing a popular Republican talking point about Democrats’ signature abortion proposal, which would reinstate the Roe standard and keep states from restricting abortion after fetal viability in cases where the life or health of the mother is endangered.

Johnson, like most Republicans, is hoping to make the election a referendum on the border — the issue he said came up most often when talking to voters throughout the primary, particularly from first- or second-generation immigrants.

His preferred approach would be to “close the border” while streamlining the process by which legal immigrants are vetted and then allowed into the U.S. 

“You need to make it easier for people not to be encouraged to break the law by making it as easy as it should be to come legally,” Johnson said. “Right now, the backup is crazy. The resources aren't there to do it the right way.”

Where would that strategy leave undocumented immigrants currently in the U.S., including DACA recipients?

Johnson said it would be unfair to extend the privileges of legal permanent residency or citizenship to those who came to the U.S. illegally, even if they were brought as children. But he said offering legal protection from deportation for Dreamers could be a potential point of compromise.

“I really don't like setting any precedent that says if you come over illegally, your kids are taken care of,” he said.

National groups likely staying out

A national Republican strategist familiar with Nevada said that though they did not expect Johnson to win the primary, he is “normal” and would not scare outside groups away from spending.

What does scare them is the district’s electoral history.

After spending millions of dollars in Nevada in 2022, House Republicans are now facing down a defensive map requiring them to protect vulnerable incumbents in the expensive media markets of Los Angeles and New York City. National groups do not expect to place ads in Las Vegas (which will already be oversaturated with presidential and Senate spending) barring any new dynamics.

A national Democratic strategist with knowledge of the race who was granted anonymity to speak freely said they feel confident about defending all of their Nevada House incumbents — and extra excited about Johnson, who they believe will be easy to attack based on his years’ worth of writing about policies such as Social Security and the Affordable Care Act. 

Republicans are more bullish on John Lee in Congressional District 4, a well-known former elected official who self-funded his primary bid. Multiple strategists suggested outside groups could spend money on Lee if he plunges his own considerable resources into the race, but it would likely come as a last-minute boost if they believed he had a real shot. 

And even if House Republican groups do decide to invest in the state, Democrats can easily match fire with fire. That’s especially true for Horsford, the chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, who has enormous fundraising capability if needed and whom the national Democratic political apparatus is deeply invested in defending — a dynamic Republican strategists are wary of triggering.

“The three incumbents are going to be able to raise as much as they need to,” said Damore, the UNLV political scientist. “They'll be able to draw on any party support and outside group support if they think that it's going to be needed.”

Johnson is not naive to his uphill battle. But he believes he won the primary because he has the best chance of doing what three prior Republican candidates have failed to do — beat Lee.

“Susie and I disagree on most things, but she's not an idiot,” Johnson said. “I respect her, and I think that I'm just a much better matchup against Susie than anybody else would have been.”

This story was updated at 12:20 p.m. on 6/16/24 to remove a detail about the time that the NRCC’s press release was sent out. The press release was sent the following morning because of the late time that Johnson’s race was called. This story was updated again 2:00 p.m. to add the NRCC’s denial of not having a press release prepared.