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Analyst: Expect to see monthly gaming revenue declines after banner 2022

Howard Stutz
Howard Stutz
EconomyGaming
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Contestants compete in the World Series of Poker at Paris Las Vegas on Wednesday, May 31, 2023. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent).

Statewide and Strip gaming revenue declined in May compared with the same month a year ago and the Nevada Gaming Control Board had one message Wednesday concerning the decrease: Get used to it.

Nevada, coming off a record $14.8 billion gaming revenue year in 2022, has now recorded declines in two of the last three months. Over the rest of 2023, every monthly comparison to the prior year will be set against either the highest or second-highest total for that month.

“Needless to say, the comparisons are going to be the most difficult the state has ever faced,” said Michael Lawton, the control board’s senior economic analyst.

May’s statewide gaming revenue was just under $1.29 billion, a less than 1 percent decrease compared with $1.3 billion a year ago. The total marked Nevada’s 27th straight month of $1 billion or more in gaming revenue.

On the Strip, gaming revenue fell 2.1 percent to $715.9 million, while downtown Las Vegas casinos saw a 6.6 percent gaming revenue dip.

Southern Nevada had several special events in May that drove visitation and casino play including residencies by country music icon Garth Brooks at Caesars Palace, the Electric Daisy Carnival at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway and a lightweight championship fight at the MGM Grand Garden.

The amount wagered on baccarat on the Strip was up less than 1 percent from a year ago, but revenue declined slightly.

Deutsche Bank gaming analyst Carlo Santarelli told investors in a research note Wednesday the Strip gaming totals for May were still up roughly 38 percent compared to pre-pandemic May 2019. Even though he’s predicting June’s Strip gaming revenue could be down 8 percent from a year ago, the figure would still be 10 percent higher than in June 2019.

In the Las Vegas locals markets, gaming revenue increased by 3.7 percent, which included increases in the balance of Clark County and the Boulder Strip. North Las Vegas casino revenue declined 4.7 percent.

Despite the May decreases, Strip gaming revenue is up 7.8 percent in the first five months of 2023 while downtown casino revenue is up almost 7 percent in the calendar year. Statewide gaming revenue has jumped almost 5 percent through May.

The Reno Arch in downtown Reno on Thursday, Oct. 28, 2021. (David Calvert/The Nevada Independent).
The Reno Arch in downtown Reno on Thursday, Oct. 28, 2021. (David Calvert/The Nevada Independent)

A Reno rebound

Northern Nevada provided a different narrative from the south.

After severe winter storms caused Washoe County gaming revenue decreases in four of the five months from November 2022 through March 2023, casinos have now seen increases in two consecutive months, including May’s nearly 3.8 percent revenue jump to $908 million.

“We didn’t feel that there was any structural weakness in the market,” Lawton said of the winter declines. “It is good to see the market begin to pick up steam as we enter the busy and very important summer months.”

He noted that slot machine revenue in Washoe County increased almost 4 percent in May and wagering on the games was up less than 1 percent.

Reno casinos saw revenue jump 5 percent in May to almost $66.2 million while Sparks had its ninth consecutive monthly increase to $15 million, or 8.8 percent, thanks to the opening last summer of the Legends Bay Casino.

South Lake Tahoe casinos experienced a rebound following a 26 percent decline in April because of heavy storms. The market saw gaming revenue of $19.5 million in May, an increase of 11.3 percent.

Visitation to Las Vegas grows

Las Vegas visitation was just shy of 3.5 million in May, up 1.5 percent from 2022, which was fueled by special events, multiple weekend music festivals and a 16.1 percent increase in convention attendance.

The visitor totals helped boost hotel occupancy to 84.4 percent on top of a $183.40 average daily room rate, which was a 4.3 percent increase from May 2022.

Through the first five months of 2023, Las Vegas visitation stands at almost 16.9 million, a 10.8 percent increase from the first five months of 2022. Convention attendance, which was nearly nonexistent during the pandemic, is now 38.5 percent ahead of a year ago.

Sports betting revenue increases

Nevada sportsbooks saw an 11 percent revenue increase to $30.1 million during May despite a decrease in wagering of more than 6 percent to $527 million.

A nearly 1 percent increase in the hold percentage – what sportsbooks won from customer wagers – accounted for the revenue jump.

Mobile wagering accounted for 67.9 percent of all sports bets in May.

Passengers line up at the Southwest Airlines counter at Harry Reid International Airport on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent).
Passengers line up at the Southwest Airlines counter at Harry Reid International Airport on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)

Busy month for Reid Airport

Passenger volume at Harry Reid International Airport fell just short of the 5 million mark in May, but the total of 4.95 million travelers marked the highest monthly total yet in 2023.

The airport has seen almost 22.3 million arriving and departing passengers through May, which is 18.7 percent higher compared to the first five months of 2022. Last year, Reid Airport saw a single-year record of 52.6 million travelers.

International travel has continued its post-pandemic comeback, with 288,372 passengers in May, a 20 percent increase from a year ago. In 2023’s first five months, international passenger volume is 59.6 percent ahead of 2022’s total.

Southwest Airlines continues to increase its presence as the airport’s busiest air carrier with almost 1.76 million passengers in May, up 10.1 percent from a year ago. Southwest has serviced 8 million passengers at Reid in the first five months of the year, an increase of 17.5 percent.

Updated at 11:36 a.m. on 6/28/2023 to include Las Vegas tourism results for May.

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