As one prediction market leaves Nevada, others double down
Interest surrounding prediction markets reached new levels last week. One professional sports league signed a rights deal with two companies, allowing the use of trademarked names. One of the largest sports betting operators said it plans to launch its own prediction market business.
Seven years after sports betting began its nationwide legalization march, the gaming industry is entering uncharted waters.
A troika of prediction market announcements last week was the latest example of the warp-speed expansion across the U.S. and into Nevada, coupled with the snail’s pace of nearly two dozen lawsuits between the businesses and gaming regulators.
Industry leaders and analysts view the back-and-forth legal filings as detrimental to the regulated sports betting industry.
On Oct. 21, sports betting giant DraftKings announced it was buying prediction market business Railbird Exchange. A day later, Kalshi and Polymarket signed licensing agreements with the National Hockey League.
But those deals were overshadowed Friday afternoon when the Nevada Gaming Control Board said Crypto.com had agreed not to offer sports event contracts in the state until its lawsuit with the regulators is resolved. The company was denied a preliminary injunction by U.S. District Judge Andrew Gordon in its challenge to the cease-and-desist lawsuit filed by the regulatory agency.
Sportsbook operators that offer event contracts in Nevada — or anywhere else — jeopardize their gaming license, said Control Board Chairman Mike Dreitzer, sending notice to the industry.
Through their online presence, prediction markets — which are overseen by a federal commodity-focused regulatory panel — reach into all 50 states, allowing people to wager on the outcomes of events ranging from entertainment, politics, pop culture, financial markets and even the weather in the form of “yes” and “no” contracts.
“Prediction markets are moving too fast for the status quo to survive,” CBRE Equity Research gaming analyst John DeCree wrote in a research note following the Global Gaming Expo (G2E), where discussion about the topic overshadowed the conference.
DeCree suggested the lawsuits, including cases involving Nevada, could take 18 months or longer for the courts to decide.
There is also confusion in Nevada.
Gordon, after offering a favorable ruling in May that allowed prediction market Kalshi to continue sports contracts, wrote this month that Crypto.com can offer contracts on whether a sporting event happens, but not who wins.
Meanwhile, DraftKings’ acquisition of Railbird and the NHL’s deal with Kalshi and Polymarket added new twists to an already convoluted situation.
DraftKings CEO Jason Robins didn’t hide his company’s interest in prediction markets during a keynote discussion at G2E. DraftKings, which is not licensed in Nevada, applied to join the National Futures Association in August, a move considered an early step toward launching its own prediction markets. He said the businesses are flourishing because bigger states such as Texas and California have not legalized sports betting.
In a statement last week, Robins said the purchase (for an undisclosed price) supported “DraftKings’ broader strategy to enter prediction markets.” He said DraftKings Predictions, a forthcoming mobile app, would “allow customers to trade regulated event contracts on real-world outcomes across finance, culture, and entertainment.” Sports were not mentioned.
In the NHL deal, Kalshi and Polymarket have permission to use the NHL and individual team logos and terms such as Stanley Cup. The NHL has similar agreements in place with sportsbook operators.
The DraftKings and the Kalshi-Polymarket deals were quickly eviscerated in a statement by American Gaming Association CEO Bill Miller.
“Contrary to the league’s claims, the future of these platforms is far from certain, evidenced by the legal proceedings in multiple states, the views of well over half of the nation’s attorneys general, and state regulators determining these platforms to be illegal,” Miller said.
The Washington, D.C.-based organization backed the 2018 U.S. Supreme Court decision to allow states to decide if they wanted to legalize and regulate sports betting.
Stephen Piepgrass, an attorney in Virginia who follows the gaming industry, said in an email that the NHL’s embrace of prediction markets was a step toward bringing the business model into the mainstream. He said other sports leagues may follow.
“Traditional gaming proponents raise concerns that if predictive market participants like Kalshi are allowed to operate, they can effectively bypass longstanding regulatory hurdles and responsible gaming safeguards that apply to traditional real money gaming,” Piepgrass said.
He added that oversight of prediction markets by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was somewhat troublesome because the federal regulator “does not have a long track record policing gaming like the states.”
Piepgrass suggested the NHL’s deal with Kalshi and Polymarket could influence the legal proceedings.
“Courts do not make decisions in a vacuum,” Piepgrass said. “The embrace of Kalshi and Polymarket by a reputable major sports league like the NHL makes it harder for opponents to characterize the company, and others like it, as a dangerous upstart, so this announcement should put these businesses in a stronger position as the legal battles continue.”
Air France to launch round-trip service between Las Vegas and Paris in 2026
Las Vegas tourism leaders — seeking ways to rekindle slumping international visitation from European markets lost during the pandemic — are heralding the first-ever direct routes between Las Vegas and Paris, set to begin next year.
Clark County Director of Aviation James Chrisley called the service a “game-changer” for Las Vegas visitation, opening a new gateway to the European market.
The three-times-a-week nonstop service between Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport and Harry Reid International Airport will start April 15 and run through Oct. 24. The round-trip flights will add 26,892 seats to and from Europe, generating an estimated $34.7 million in direct economic impact and $57.5 million in overall impact annually, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.
The 10-hour flights will operate on Mondays, Wednesdays and Saturdays using Airbus A350-900 aircraft. A recent search on the Air France website found $443 one-way fares for the new route, according to Travel and Leisure.
Las Vegas tourism authority CEO Steve Hill said it was a “significant milestone” in extending Las Vegas’ reach into Europe, which already includes direct service from London through British Airways and Virgin Airways and flights from Amsterdam through KLM.
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