Given the money being spent on this year’s primary elections — not to mention the millions more that will be spent in the general — it’s pretty obvious both national political parties consider Nevada to be a key part of their political calculus. 

Or, to put it another way: Yes, #WeMatter. 

Nationally, many political observers seem to believe what happens in Nevada will tell us which party is truly representative of our shifting electorate. And, as a result, the state will be used as a proving ground for political messaging in the next several months — a “test” for two political parties that have been losing market share among a public that feels increasingly disenfranchised by the partisan theatrics on display in both major tribes. 

With Democrats continuing to bleed voters on a steady basis in Nevada, November’s election will test the party’s appeal in an era when national politics have soured many Americans on their particular brand of politicking. Before that, however, the GOP will have to prove that it’s capable of actually nominating candidates who excite voters outside of the Trump wing of populist politics. 

Given the unlikeliness of either party having a “come to Jesus” moment in the next few months, most political forecasts likely come down to which party will fail more spectacularly at their respective challenge — the other being able to claim “victory” in November’s election. 

We already know that Nevada voters are fiercely independent — with non-major party voters making up the largest share of the electorate. As it turns out, despite shifts in registrations toward Republicans, a plurality of Nevadans still want nothing to do with either major political brand — which should say something profound given the way virtually everything has become a partisan tug-of-war between team red and team blue. 

Of more concern for Democrats, however, is the fact that traditionally allied demographic groups have been walking away from their party in recent years. Say what you will about the GOP’s Trump-era branding issues, when the Democrats can’t even hold on to some of their most dependable voting blocs, they’re clearly not channeling Don Draper in their communication efforts. 

Which is one of the major reasons all eyes will be on our swingy state between now and November. In the midst of a predicted “red wave,” Democrats will try to prove they are capable of reconnecting with the Latinos and working-class Americans who have, historically, provided them a cushion against otherwise electable Republicans. 

Clearly, some political operatives are convinced GOP voters might make Democrats’ job a little easier in the next couple of weeks — with at least one sketchy political action committee meddling in the GOP primary to give Democrats a potential boost. 

In a clear attempt to move the political needle toward GOP candidates who would be weaker in the general-election, the group sent “sample ballots” to Republican voters urging them to vote for “Anyone but Joe Lombardo” for governor. But has it not occurred to the political geniuses behind this ruse that the steady stream of voters leaving the Democratic Party might have similar sentiments about the current gubernatorial incumbent?

David Colborne has already opined on the pages of The Nevada Independent about the risks Democrats and their allies face in playing such a Reid-inspired game of political Russian roulette. After all, elections in the United States aren’t always an act of affirmation by voters — many voters turn up at the polls out of little more than opposition to “the other guy.” 

This is why negative campaign ads will never go away… because they work. Our brains are simply hardwired in such a way, and voters are motivated by hating the other party’s candidate. 

Donald Trump, for example, didn’t win in 2016 because he was the best that could be offered by the Republican Party — he was elected because a large enough share of the voting public in enough states found him to be slightly less offensive than the Democratic establishment’s chosen alternative. (The phrase “less offensive” is doing some heavy lifting here.) 

Likewise, Biden isn’t some political messiah who dethroned Trump by rousing the spirits of the masses into populist fervor. As is evidenced by his truly atrocious polling numbers, it’s pretty clear much of America doesn’t even like him that much — they merely rewarded him in 2020 for not being Trump.  

In truth, and much to the chagrin of true believers in both major camps, the vast majority of voters view political parties more like public transit than true ideological movements — climbing aboard because it’s headed roughly in the direction they want to go, not because they’re in love with the driver. This year, Republicans have a real opportunity to attract such political commuters… provided, of course, they offer voters a bus driver who seems unlikely to careen into oncoming traffic or veer wildly off course. 

None of this is to say that the Democrat Party is doomed in the decidedly purple state of Nevada, even if it does suffer losses amidst a “red wave” later this year. In a state as ideologically complex as ours, the Trumpian populism that defines much of the Republican Party is still far from being a mainstream political preference — and Republicans would do well to remember that, despite the trend in party affiliation changes, the majority of voters would still rather register as Democrats, unaffiliated or literally any other party. 

Which, of course, brings us once again to the biggest test Republicans are currently facing as the primary approaches: Will the party’s base prove itself capable of putting forward candidates who appeal to voters outside of their own bubble? 

Given the nature of primary politics, it’s quite likely that neither party will really rise to the occasion in the way it should this year. After all, Democratic infighting has made headlines for the last year and many Republicans have spent the last few months scrambling to out-Trump one another in the primary. As a result, November won’t necessarily tell us which party has become more representative of ordinary voters — instead, we’ll merely learn which party is slightly less alienating to independently minded Nevadans.  

And while that’s not a terribly inspiring thought, the answer will nonetheless have a direct impact on the course of national politics. So, at least it still means #WeMatter. 

Michael Schaus is a communications and branding consultant based in Las Vegas and founder of Schaus Creative LLC — an agency dedicated to helping organizations, businesses and activists tell their story and motivate change. He is the former communications director for Nevada Policy Research Institute and has more than a decade of experience in public affairs commentary as a columnist, political humorist, and radio talk show host. Follow him at SchausCreative.com or on Twitter at @schausmichael.