When Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) announced his surprise retirement on Friday, he set off a scramble among ambitious Republicans.

Though the filing deadline isn’t until mid-March, the GOP primary for the seat Amodei held for 15 years could effectively end much sooner. That’s because it likely depends on President Donald Trump’s endorsement, and the White House already has a favorite. 

The president’s pick, according to multiple GOP strategists who spoke to The Nevada Independent on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing affairs, is 2024 Republican Senate nominee Sam Brown, the Army veteran who lost a close race to Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV). 

Brown, who moved to Nevada from Texas in 2018, has an inspiring personal story of surviving a near-death experience in Afghanistan and is working in the Trump administration. 

Multiple GOP strategists have heard the White House immediately began conversations with Brown after Amodei’s announcement in the hopes of recruiting him for the seat. But where he’s leaning is still a mystery. White House political director Matt Brasseaux did not respond to a request for comment. 

Brown is interested in the seat, one strategist said, but has already run for Congress two cycles in a row and is enjoying stability as under secretary for memorial affairs in the Department of Veterans Affairs. The Hatch Act would require him to leave that post to enter the race. 

A spokesperson for Brown did not comment. 

A primary win, however, could come with even more job security. A Democrat has never won the district, which spans Northern Nevada, including Reno, Carson City and several rural counties. 

In an interview with The Nevada Independent, UNR political science professor Jeremy Gelman said the district is gerrymandered to be safely Republican. The Cook Political Report labels it with an R+7 Partisan Voting Index. In 2024, Amodei won it by 55 percent to his well-funded opponent’s 36 percent. 

In a social media exchange Wednesday night with Indy CEO Jon Ralston about Amodei’s retirement, Brown quipped, “Can’t be true. … Who would run in that open seat?!”

Some Nevada Republicans have doubts about Brown after his 2024 loss, given that he ran behind Trump, who flipped the state for Republicans for the first time in two decades. But Trump’s endorsement is likely to be the deciding factor in a potentially crowded field. 

“Loyalty and support for the president, I think, is going to be paramount in this primary as displayed by these candidates,” Gelman said. “How people seek Donald Trump’s endorsement is probably the most important dynamic of this race.”

Gellman added that every Republican would run on essentially the same political platform, so they would need to rely on their style or support from the president to stand out. 

Strategists suggested that Brown could clear the field of viable candidates. But if he doesn’t jump into the race, talk among some Nevada Republicans is that state Controller Andy Matthews would be among the Republican frontrunners. Though Matthews is from Las Vegas, he is one of only four elected Republicans who represents the entire district. Candidates are legally allowed to live outside of the district where they are running.

“It has been humbling to receive encouragement from so many Nevadans to enter the campaign for Nevada’s 2nd congressional district,” Matthews wrote in a statement to The Nevada Independent. “As we approach the official filing period for office, I will make my intentions known soon.”

Getting the golden Trump endorsement could be a challenge for Matthews, who endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the 2024 presidential race.

"I support President Trump’s efforts to put our country back on the right track, and I believe Nevada needs a proven conservative voice in Congress who will help deliver on that agenda," Matthews wrote.

A Matthews candidacy would keep at least one other Republican, former state Controller Ron Knecht (R), out of the race. 

Other potential candidates include Air Force Veteran and 2024 GOP Senate candidate Tony Grady and Nevada Trucking Association CEO Paul Enos.

“I am deferring to some people that I love who have been phenomenal public servants,” Enos told The Nevada Independent. “And while I’m waiting on those people to make their decisions, I am making sure that my ego is in check, that I’m not buying my own bullshit.”

He declined to name who, specifically, he was waiting on. But he did add, “One of the reasons that Mark was such a phenomenal representative — Dean Heller before him, and Jim Gibbons before him, and Barbara Vucanovich before him — is because they have lived and had a tremendous amount of history and family and connections to the district. I still think that’s important. It’s important to live in the place you’re representing.”

Northern Nevada’s top Republican legislators may see little benefit in going to Washington. There are no direct flights from Reno to D.C., making the travel required for the job grueling, and whoever lands in the seat will have little power as one of the newest among the 435 members of the House. Given recent polling, a new Republican member could find themselves in the minority.

State Senate Minority Leader Robin Titus (R) told The Nevada Independent in an interview that she feels Republicans are poised to win power in her chamber.

“Why would I give that up and go back to D.C. and get nothing done?” she asked. “I’m going to stay home and hope to make a difference right here.”

She said she’s heard similar talk about Brown’s chances as a candidate, and listed him along with former state Senate Minority Leader James Settelmeyer (R-Gardnerville), Grady and conservative lawyer Joey Gilbert as viable candidates. She also praised Matthews. 

Settelmeyer, who Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo appointed director of Nevada’s Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, is another possible candidate Republicans are watching closely. He and former state Senate Minority Leader Heidi Gansert (R-Reno) did not respond to inquiries from The Nevada Independent. Neither did Lombardo’s former chief of staff Ben Kieckhefer, who would likely be the most moderate contender if he ran, nor Sparks City Attorney and former attorney general candidate Wes Duncan.

Some Republicans have speculated about former Assm. Ken Gray (R-Dayton), who left the Assembly last summer when he was appointed as an advisor to the National Cemetery Administration — which Brown oversees — only to return to Nevada and run for his Assembly seat again. But on Wednesday, he told The Nevada Independent, “I’m engaged and focused on my Assembly race.” 

Though Gilbert, who placed second in the open GOP governor primary in 2022, suggested he was looking at the race, multiple in-state Republicans told The Nevada Independent he is unlikely to run. A message left at his law office went unanswered before publication. 

Other Republicans have publicly bowed out.

Former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt wrote on social media he remains focused on his children and his law firm. In the span of a weekend, state Sen. Ira Hansen (R-Sparks) dipped his toe in the water and decided not to dive in, citing his age, opportunities in-state and a lack of desire to spend half his time in Washington. 

On Tuesday, Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian  — who unsuccessfully ran against Amodei in the 2022 primary and is now squaring off against attorney Adriana Guzmán Fralick in the GOP attorney general primary — told The Nevada Independent in an email he is not considering swapping races.  

In a text, Department of Agriculture director J.J. Goicoechea wrote, “This cycle isn’t right for me. I have two high school age daughters and my number one priority is my family. I’m going to continue to see the projects we’ve started at the NDA through in my current position as Director.”

Reached by phone, former Lieutenant Gov. Brian Krolicki declined to comment on the newly-open seat. 

For his part, Amodei told The Nevada Independent he does not plan to endorse anyone in the primary barring extreme circumstances and will work to get the eventual GOP nominee elected to Congress.   

Given the rarity of an open seat considered easy pickings for a Republican, Brown is unlikely to clear the field entirely. At least one candidate plans to run regardless of his decision — retired surgeon Fred Simon (R), who challenged Amodei in the 2024 primary and lost with one-third of the vote to the congressman’s two-thirds. 

Simon, who self-funded a 2022 gubernatorial bid to the tune of more than $1.3 million, told The Nevada Independent he will inject $1 million into his campaign account when he returns to Nevada — he’s been out of state for a ski trip and called from Crested Butte, Colorado.

He said he’s “a conservative in a lot of ways” but wants to take on politicians of both parties who stoke division, listen to lobbyists, and fail to do enough to help regular Nevadans afford a good life as big companies benefit from “corporate welfare.” 

How will he win with the whole establishment against him?

“Probably can't, but I need to represent the people that I represent, who are people like me,” he said. “The honest basic Nevadan.”

Whoever emerges from the primary will present a stark contrast to Amodei. 

“He was sort of a creature — and I don't mean this in a bad way — a creature of Northern Nevada Republican politics,” UNR’s Gelman said. “I don’t think there's another person in Northern Nevada who could plausibly win that seat, who has that experience, has those local ties. … The fact that he was able to turn away primaries so easily, even as Republican politics in Northern Nevada changed, is a really good reflection of the goodwill in the party he had in his district. The person who replaces him will probably engage in a much more nationalized version of politics.”

This story was updated on 02/12/26 at 1:14 p.m. with an additional quote from Andy Matthews, at 1:54 p.m. with additional context about the state's lack of residency requirements for congressional offices, at 2:35 p.m. with information about Adam Laxalt, and again at 3:24 p.m. with a quote from J.J. Goicoechea.