Indy Elections: AOC, Biden and the Nevada progressive
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: We explore how the Biden campaign is courting progressive voters in Nevada, a new poll showing Nevada Latino voters “strongly” favor President Joe Biden and the advertisements independent Congressional District 2 candidate Greg Kidd is running in an attempt to unseat Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV).
Click this link to manage your newsletter subscriptions. This newsletter is published weekly.
We want to hear from you! Send us your questions, comments, observations, jokes or what you think we should be covering or paying attention to. Email your newsletter editor Tabitha Mueller at [email protected].
By the Numbers:
- 126 days until Election Day
- 216 days until the 83rd legislative session
- 0 days since an email requesting a $5 campaign donation hit our inboxes
The progressive push for Biden
By Eric Neugeboren
The Biden campaign got a helping hand last month from perhaps an unlikely source: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).
Ocasio-Cortez has been open about her opposition to some of Biden’s policies, particularly about his continued support for Israel. But in a series of events in Las Vegas in late June, she sought to draw a contrast between him and former President Donald Trump’s policies, especially on abortion rights.
But will Nevada progressives be swayed?
Polls show Biden losing ground among young voters in Nevada and other swing states, and progressives have a mixed track record in the Silver State, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) cruising to victory in the 2020 presidential caucus, but a socialist-led takeover of the state party falling apart within two years.
Some, but not all, progressive groups are seeking to contrast Biden and Trump’s policies with low information voters. But it is a tall ask, especially with those voters who don’t know the ins and outs of policymaking and after Biden’s debate performance last week raised further questions about his fitness.
Read more here about the progressive voter landscape ahead of the November election.
What we’re reading and writing
Ford received donations from California family allegedly involved in straw donor scheme by Tabitha Mueller
When Golden State politics shift to silver.
Constitutional amendment on abortion rights qualifies for November ballot by Eric Neugeboren
Abortion access WILL be on the ballot in November.
‘Not his best performance’: Harris reacts to debate, draws contrast to Trump in Vegas event by Taylor Avery, Las Vegas Review-Journal
In the #WeMatter state, Harris makes a pitch for Biden. Will it be enough?
Far-right conspiracist funds recounts, including for progressive activist by Carly Sauvageau
[Insert Epic Handshake meme here]
Compare the Candidates on Health Care Policy published by KFF: The independent source for health policy research, polling and news.
Learn how President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump differ on various health care policies.
Indy Poll Watch
Unidos US/Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group
- 250 registered voters in Nevada (May 13-22)
- Margin of error: 6.1 percent
This survey, conducted by Republican and Democratic polling firms, oversampled Latino voters in Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania to understand issues important to the Latino electorate in swing states.
Interestingly, Latino voters in Nevada seem more poised to support Biden — and less motivated by concerns regarding immigration and border security — than their counterparts in other states polled.
The poll found Latino voters in Nevada skew younger, are less college educated and more Democratic than the national sample averages. Their top issues are inflation and the cost of living, jobs and the economy and high rents and lack of affordable housing — making immigration and the border a lower-level concern.
But when polled about those topics, Nevada’s Latino electorate expressed more sympathy toward new arrivals at the border than those polled in Arizona and Pennsylvania, and ranked increasing border security as a lower priority relative to those two swing states.
Although the poll found Latinos in Arizona prefer former President Donald Trump on immigration, Latinos in Nevada “strongly” favor President Joe Biden.
— Gabby Birenbaum
Indy Ad Watch
TOP FOUR ADS WITH THE HIGHEST SPENDING (6/25-7/1)
Data from political ad-tracking organization AdImpact
- U.S. Senate race: One Nation (anti-Jacky Rosen) - Wasteful Spending
- Began airing: 6/18
- Total spend: $330,716
- Ad impressions (number of times an advertisement was seen, regardless of whether the viewer took any action): 5.8 million
- Presidential race: Future Forward USA Action/Climate Power (pro-Joe Biden) - Close Tax Loopholes
- Began airing: 6/25
- Total spend: $270,673
- Ad impressions: 2.7 million
- U.S. Senate race: Jacky Rosen - Our Rights
- Began airing: 6/12
- Total spend: $252,547
- Ad impressions: 8.7 million
- Presidential race: Duty and Honor (pro-Jacky Rosen) - Protect
- the Border
- Began airing: 6/19
- Total spend: $217,457
- Ad impressions: 3.4 million
ONE OTHER TIDBIT
- Independent candidate Greg Kidd is challenging Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) in November to represent Nevada Congressional District 2. Though Kidd is considered a long-shot candidate, he launched two advertisements last month highlighting his support of Planned Parenthood and lack of ties to either political party. Spending data from AdImpact indicates Kidd has spent more than $98,000 since announcing his run, or more than 50 percent of the advertising money spent in the Congressional District 2 election. No Democratic candidate is running in the district.
SPENDING SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK
— Tabitha Mueller
The Lightning Round
✅ National group backs seven Dem legislative candidates — The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) has named seven Democrats running for the Nevada Legislature as “Spotlight Candidates,” meaning the group will help raise money for their campaigns and draw national attention to the races. The slate includes four incumbents: Las Vegas Assemblywomen Elaine Marzola (AD21), Shea Backus (AD37) and Sandra Jauregui (AD 41) and Reno Assemblywoman Selena La Rue Hatch (AD25). The group also is focusing on electing political newcomers Ryan Hampton and Jennifer Atlas, who are running for Assembly District 4 and Senate District 5, respectively, and Assemblywoman Angie Taylor (D-Reno), who is running for Senate District 15.
🗳️ Former Nye clerk: Hand-counting increases transparency, takes longer — Mark Kampf, the former Nye County clerk at the center of the controversial plan to hand count ballots in 2022, testified before the Washoe County Commission last week that a group of eight vote counters took eight days to count 17,000 ballots in 2022. Kampf, a 2020 election denier who resigned earlier this year, also said the counting method increases transparency and is cheaper. The method’s popularity was fueled by unfounded conspiracies related to voting machines.
🗣️ GOP nominee in CD1 race agrees to debate — Mark Robertson, the Republican candidate running to unseat Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), has agreed to a debate hosted by KLAS in September. Titus did not respond to questions about whether she would participate. The two candidates previously faced off in 2022, with Titus prevailing by more than 5 percent or 12,000 votes.
— Eric Neugeboren
Looking Ahead
📜 Friday, July 5: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential campaign has until Friday to submit the more than 10,000 petition signatures needed to qualify for the general election ballot, after which officials will undertake a signature verification process. The campaign already submitted enough signatures on an earlier petition, but it is likely invalid because the petition did not include a running mate — a rule that is the subject of a lawsuit from his campaign.
— Eric Neugeboren
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- When reality TV offers an escape.
- There is ALWAYS a Nevada connection (even in golf!),
- Just leaving this here…
We’ll see you next week.
Interested in more newsletters from The Nevada Independent?
Find them all here.
Editor’s note: This story appears in Indy Elections, The Nevada Independent’s newsletter dedicated to comprehensive coverage of the 2024 elections. Sign up for the newsletter here.