Indy Elections: Harrismentum?
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: Is Nevada coconut-pilled? Plus, we explore a recent survey indicating 34 percent of Nevada Latinos are uncertain about whom they will support for president and highlight details from federal campaign records, including donations U.S. Republican Senate candidate Sam Brown made to a crisis pregnancy center. As usual, baseball player Nick Castellanos maintained his absurd streak of keeping home runs and world events aligned (this is your reminder to bet on him at your favorite sportsbook).
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By the Numbers:
- 0 hours since checking
TwitterX for breaking news - $81 million, the amount of money Harris raised within 24 hours after entering the 2024 race for president
- 195 days until the 83rd legislative session (but bill proposals are live)
Nevada campaign sees more enthusiasm, volunteers after Biden withdrawal
By Gabby Birenbaum
Democratic presidential campaign staffers woke up Sunday working for President Joe Biden. By the time they went to bed, Vice President Kamala Harris was their new boss.
But rather than inciting chaos, campaign staffers and delegates to the Democratic National Convention described the switch of candidate as a switch in momentum. The now-Harris campaign’s email addresses may still have “Biden” in the domain, but staffers say the vice president’s ascension has brought a new energy to the campaign. They recruited more than 600 volunteers Sunday — including strangers walking into campaign offices off the street asking how to help.
Will it be enough? Harris, if named the nominee, inherits the uphill polling battle Biden was facing in Nevada. But the campaign is hopeful she can help bring voters of color and young voters, in particular, into the coalition to deliver Nevada to Democrats for the fifth consecutive presidential election.
Read more here about the Harrismentum.
What we’re reading and writing
Biden drops out of presidential race; Nevada leaders react by Gabby Birenbaum
And people say that Friday news dumps are the worst.
After Washoe recount and revote, experts say commission’s action undermined democracy by Tabitha Mueller
I guess not following the law has consequences …
‘Attack on my character;’ Fiore pleads not guilty to federal wire fraud charges by Howard Stutz
Fiore said she also got served by the Nevada Commission on Judicial Discipline.
Nevada voter ID ballot question qualifies for 2024 ballot by Kelsea Frobes
Next up: The November general election and (if it passes) 2026.
Judge tosses GOP suit that sought to end Nevada’s post-Election Day ballot counting by Eric Neugeboren
If you can’t win, try again?
Biden tests positive for COVID during Las Vegas trip; cancels speech by Eric Neugeboren
What happens in Vegas goes to Delaware?
Indy Poll Watch
TelevisaUnivision Consumer Strategy & Insights, June 12-24
- 935 registered voters (June 12-24)
- Margin of error: 5.1 percent
A new survey from TelevisaUnivision found that 34 percent of Nevada Latinos are uncertain about their vote for president heading into 2024. Though the poll was conducted before the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump and the end of President Joe Biden’s campaign, its results provide insight into a demographic that could be key to winning the swing state.
The poll showed 33 percent of Latino registered voters surveyed “definitely” supported Biden, with 30 percent definitely supporting Trump, well within the statistical margin of error.
More than 60 percent of Latino Nevada voters say that they lack proper information on the candidates to make an informed decision this November. Most say that they appreciate when candidates advertise in Spanish, but just 2 percent of political ad spending is directed to Spanish-speaking Latinos, according to TelevisaUnivision.
Cost of living, affordable housing and the economy remain top of mind for them, according to the poll.
Nevada’s U.S. Senate race is a bit more clear-cut. Democrat incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) leads Republican Sam Brown by 12 points among Latino voters (29 percent to 17 percent). But 49 percent remain undecided.
— Isabella Aldrete
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: Greg Kidd pitches himself as “free, fair and wild” alternative
Nonpartisan candidate Greg Kidd’s campaign for ruby red Congressional District 2 has hammered the message that he’s not connected to either the Democratic or Republican parties and is focused on keeping Northern Nevada “free, fair and wild.” Kidd has also highlighted himself as a pro-abortion candidate who supports Planned Parenthood, attempting to draw a strong contrast between himself and Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV), who has held the seat since 2011 and has a record of voting to restrict abortion access. Data from AdImpact shows the third-party candidate has spent $535,000 on advertisements. No Democratic candidate filed to run in the election and GOP-aligned groups have spent less than $1,000.
— Tabitha Mueller
TOP FOUR ADS WITH THE HIGHEST SPENDING (7/16-7/22)
Data from political ad-tracking organization AdImpact
- U.S. Senate race: WinSenate (anti-Brown) - Extreme Views
- Began airing: 7/16
- Total spend: $564,824
- Ad impressions (number of times an advertisement was seen, regardless of whether the viewer took any action): 6.2 million
- U.S. Senate race: One Nation (anti-Rosen) - Boondoggle Spending
- Began airing: 7/9
- Total spend: $489,518
- Ad impressions: 5.1 million
- U.S. Senate race: Majority Forward (pro-Rosen) - Siga Luchando
- Began airing: 7/2
- Total spend: $277,415
- Ad impressions: 557,000
- U.S. Senate race: Rosen for NV Senate (pro-Rosen) - I Work For You
- Began airing: 7/15
- Total spend: $228,714
- Ad impressions: 2.7 million
ONE OTHER TIDBIT
- Poder Latino, a nonpartisan initiative created by Univision and Entravision, created this Spanish-language Get Out to Vote video. The video emphasized basic election information, reminding viewers to register and that Nov. 5 is Election Day. While Hispanic Americans represent about 14 percent of all eligible voters, their turnout rates usually trail behind other racial and ethnic groups, according to the Pew Research Center.
SPENDING SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK
— Tabitha Mueller and Isabella Aldrete
The Lightning Round
🎇 Nevada Day parade bans campaigns (again) — Political campaigns will not be able to participate in the 2024 Carson City Nevada Day Parade, though incumbents will be allowed to march in an official capacity. This is the second year in a row candidates will be banned as part of an effort to limit fights and profanities that organizers say threaten the family-friendly nature of the event. Reporting from News 4 indicates that the policy has been criticized by a Carson City supervisor as “substantially offensive,” though other supervisors said it’s necessary for maintaining order. The parade celebrating Nevada’s statehood began in 1938.
📃 Nearly 69 bill proposals already submitted — An initial list of bill draft requests for the 2025 legislative session, or placeholders for proposed legislation, recently went live. Most topics are vague, referencing high-level issues such as “education,” “housing,” “elections” and “athletes.” However, some are more specific, such as a proposal from Sen. James Ohrenschall (D-Las Vegas) to require school districts to coordinate with service providers for students with autism. The drafts are requested by legislators, legislative committees, the governor, constitutional officers and other state and local entities.
💸 Federal finance data shows Brown donated money to crisis pregnancy center — Federal campaign finance data shows that Republican U.S. Senate candidate Sam Brown donated about $700 in June to the Women's Resource Medical Center, a faith-based nonprofit that advocates against abortion. The center is one of the crisis pregnancy centers Brown directs people to on a list of “RESOURCES FOR WOMEN” on his campaign website. The data also shows Brown received more than $45,000 from the DeVos family, including former Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos.
💲GOP megadonor Miriam Adelson lives up to moniker — Federal campaign finance records show megadonor Miriam Adelson, who owns the Las Vegas Review-Journal, lived up to her reputation, donating $10 million to Senate GOP leadership-aligned super PAC Senate Leadership Fund, and nearly $290,000 each to the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee.
💵 Splitting donations — Federal candidates often establish joint fundraising committees with other candidates to split donations. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV)’s highest-earning joint committee in the second quarter was $68,600, which came as part of the “Three for the Majority,” a joint committee affiliated with Rosen, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who is running for Senate, and their respective state parties.
— Tabitha Mueller
Looking Ahead
- Monday, Aug. 19: The Democratic National Convention, where delegates will pick the next presidential nominee, will begin Aug. 19 and run through Aug. 22. Though Biden endorsed Harris, delegates previously pledged to Biden do not automatically transfer to his preferred candidate. Once released, Nevada’s delegates are free to support any candidate on the convention floor who has qualified. Qualified candidates must receive the written support of at least 300 delegates at the convention or the votes of at least 600.
- Tuesday, Sept. 3: In Nevada, state law requires each major political party to provide their presidential and vice presidential candidates’ names to the secretary of state by 5 p.m. Sept. 3. As long as Democrats emerge with a presidential ticket by the end of the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 22, access to Nevada’s ballot shouldn’t be a problem for the party.
— Tabitha Mueller
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- What does it mean to have a day off?
- Proof that there’s a LOTR meme for every occasion.
- Sending this out as an official request to the universe.
- This editor just fell out of a coconut tree.
We’ll see you next week.
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Editor’s note: This story appears in Indy Elections, The Nevada Independent’s newsletter dedicated to comprehensive coverage of the 2024 elections. Sign up for the newsletter here.