Indy Elections: Hopes and fears on ranked-choice voting
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: At IndyFest, the secretary of state foreshadowed challenges with ranked-choice voting. Plus: A trio of polls shows Nevada is still a toss-up, a PAC devoted to electing Republicans to the U.S. Senate is only now rolling out Nevada ads and Democratic vice presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) rallies volunteers at a Mexican restaurant in Las Vegas.
Don’t miss it: We’ve officially unveiled the 2024 guide to key judicial races in Nevada. Be sure to check it out as you’re deciding how to vote.
Keep following The Boss’ early voting blog, which has all the turnout data in the #WeMatter state you could want.
Haven't had time to digest all the numbers yet?
Here are some highlights as of XX a.m. on Tuesday:
- 697,000 ballots have been reported. That's 35 percent of Nevada’s electorate, probably a little less than half of all those who are expected to vote.
- Nonpartisans represent more than a quarter of the vote or about 179,000 people.
- Based on voter turnout and party registration so far, Democrats are looking shakier in down-ballot races.
- The GOP margin in early voting continues to decline, going under 3,000 in Clark for the first time. In 2020, the GOP began to increase its margin again starting on the second Monday of early voting.
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By the Numbers:
- 4 days until early voting ends
- 8 days until Election Day
- 97 days until the 83rd legislative session
Experts weigh in on ranked-choice voting, voter ID
By Tabitha Mueller
A ballot initiative that would implement open primaries and ranked-choice voting in Nevada has attracted opposition from both major parties — something that proponents say shows the ballot question takes power away from the two-party system and distributes it to the voters.
“When you already have a lot of calculus done on how to get your candidates that the party approves of through the primary and to the general, you're not going to want that messed with,” said Sondra Cosgrove, executive director of Vote Nevada and a backer of the measure, said at IndyFest earlier this month.
During The Nevada Independent’s annual conference, Cosgrove, Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar and Athar Haseebullah of the American Civil Liberties Union of Nevada discussed the measure, Question 3, as well as a voter identification ballot measure, Question 7, threats to the election system and more.
Click here to read the full breakdown of the panel discussion.
What we’re reading and writing
Nevada Supreme Court rules non-postmarked ballots can be counted within 3 days of election by Eric Neugeboren
Another GOP lawsuit, another defeat.
Nevada events abound as campaigns 'more aware that the Asian vote matters' by Gabby Birenbaum
Both parties see opportunities among the state’s fastest-growing voter bloc.
At listening session, Latinos express dissatisfaction with both parties by Isabella Aldrete
Shhhhh, don’t tell the campaigns.
IndyFest 2024: Pollster says polarization is fueling rising distrust in government by Howard Stutz
Insert the “Everything is fine” meme here.
Four takeaways from Trump’s AAPI voter-focused rally in Vegas by Isabella Aldrete and Gabby Birenbaum
Complimenting Filipino clothing is a surefire way to court Nevada’s Asian American Pacific Islander voters.
IndyFest 2024: Forecasters say Trump’s resilience in the polls makes this cycle different by Howard Stutz
This isn’t the only thing that’s unique about this cycle.
Encouraged by early voting data, McConnell-linked group to drop $6.2 million to help Brown by Gabby Birenbaum
More signs that Republicans have renewed hope in the Senate race.
Indy Poll Watch
Redfield & Wilton/The Telegraph (Oct. 20-22)
- 540 likely voters
- Margin of error: 3.93 percent
- Findings
- Trump 47%, Harris 46%
Morning Consult/Bloomberg (Oct. 16-20)
- 420 likely voters
- Margin of error: 5 percent
- Findings
- Harris 49%, Trump 48%
Senate Opportunity Fund (R) (Oct. 19-22)
- 600 likely voters
- Margin of error: 4 percent
- Findings
- Trump: 50%, Harris 47%
- Rosen 48%, Brown 48%
Here’s a trio of polls that tell us what we already know — it’s a toss-up. (Plus, with more than a week of early voting in the books, the polls don’t matter that much anymore.)
What’s particularly interesting is the Republican poll of the Senate race. On the one hand, it’s the first poll I’ve seen that has Rosen and Brown tied — a good sign for Brown. (Rosen’s polling average remains at about 5 percentage points above Brown.)
But consider the context — the Senate race is tied in a scenario where Trump is up by 3 percentage points in Nevada. It suggests to me that Brown still has work to do to bring the base home, between split-ticket voters and people who will vote for Trump and leave the rest of the ballot blank.
— Gabby Birenbaum
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: Senate Leadership Fund’s first Nevada ad
The Senate Leadership Fund, the PAC devoted to electing Republicans to the U.S. Senate, rolled out its first ad in Nevada last week after announcing a $6.2 million infusion in the race amid promising turnout numbers for Republicans.
The 30-second spot is an attack ad against Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) that hits on three common GOP themes in the home stretch of the election: the economy, transgender rights and illegal immigration.
It accuses her of contributing to higher prices, citing her support of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan pandemic stimulus bill. It also criticizes her support of transgender women being allowed to play in women's sports, part of a nationwide blitz on ad spending on transgender rights. And it accuses Rosen of supporting “amnesty for 11 million illegals,” citing her co-sponsoring of a bill that expanded pathways to citizenship for those brought to the U.S. as minors and certain undocumented immigrants who pass a background check, among other groups.
As of Monday morning, the PAC had spent more than $500,000 on the ad, mostly for Las Vegas airwaves.
TREND WE’RE FOLLOWING: Prominent House PAC leaves Nevada
The House Majority PAC, the group focused on electing Democrats to the U.S. House, pulled all of its ad reservations for the three Southern Nevada House races, meaning it will not be airing any ads in the Silver State this cycle.
The move mirrors the strategy from Republicans, whose own PACs for the U.S. House have not spent a dime in the three contests this year. It’s a far cry from two years ago, when both parties spent heavily in the races, which were expected to be competitive but resulted in decisive victories for the incumbent Democrats.
Democrats still have a commanding ad spending lead over Republicans in the three races, buoyed by much stronger fundraising numbers by the campaigns themselves.
— Eric Neugeboren
The Lightning Round
🧑⚖️ Fifth Circuit Court rules that ballots postmarked on Election Day but arriving later shouldn’t be counted — Though the ruling only applies to states within the Fifth Circuit, including Mississippi and Texas, it sets a legal precedent for ballot challenges based on postmark dates.
The ruling comes after a federal judge dismissed a Republican-led lawsuit in July that sought to prevent Nevada from counting ballots that arrive after Election Day. Nevada is one of eight states that allow elections to be conducted entirely by mail. Nevada election officials accept mail ballots for as many as four business days after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked before polls close.
📣 Democratic vice presidential nominee Gov. Tim Walz rallies voters in Las Vegas — At a Mexican restaurant in downtown Las Vegas this Sunday, vice presidential hopeful Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) rallied canvassers in a quick, five-minute speech — but not without cheering alongside them as the Las Vegas Raiders game played overhead.
Walz warned that the race was going to be a tight one.
“Someday when you’re sitting in your rocking chair, rocking away, your grandkids are going to ask you what you did in 2024 to stop what Donald Trump was trying to do,” Walz said. “Your answer is going to be everything.”
— Tabitha Mueller & Isabella Aldrete
Looking Ahead
- Tuesday, Oct. 29: Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, will be in Nevada to boost Senate candidate Sam Brown.
- Wednesday, Oct. 30: Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will host a rally to encourage early voting in Las Vegas.
- Thursday, Oct. 31: Vice President Kamala Harris, making her first trip as the nominee to Reno, and former President Donald Trump will host separate rallies in the Silver State.
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
- Sometimes the video clip says it all.
- Blaming Fantasy Football losses on the election feels like a new low.
- Speaking of football and the election … is this anything?
- Time is meaningless.
We’ll see you Thursday.
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