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Indy Elections: How a GOP poll observer checklist is causing controversy

Tabitha Mueller
Tabitha Mueller
Eric Neugeboren
Eric Neugeboren
Gabby Birenbaum
Gabby Birenbaum
Indy Elections
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Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.

In today’s edition: Why poll observers are being instructed to test a voting machine’s internet connection. Plus: Polls show Nevada’s Senate race is tightening, a look at delays in reporting Washoe County mail-in ballots and why Bill Nye “The Science Guy” is coming to UNR.

Don’t miss it: Be sure to keep following The Boss’ early voting blog, which has all the data on general election early vote turnout in the #WeMatter state you could want. 

Haven't had time to digest all the numbers yet?

Here are some highlights:

  • Republicans lead statewide in Nevada turnout after six days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era (aka since 2008). 
  • 409,000 people have voted, or 20 percent of registered voters. If turnout reaches 1.4 million, that means just under a quarter of the vote is already in.
  • Rurals matter: Turnout shows rural voters 4 percentage points above their registration and producing more Republican ballots than Democratic ones.

A quick reminder: Click here to check your registration status. Nevadans can register on the same day they vote in person during early voting or on Election Day. Here's how to do that.

Click this link to manage your newsletter subscriptions. This newsletter is published twice a week on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

We want to hear from you! Send us your questions, comments, observations, jokes or what you think we should be covering or paying attention to. Email your newsletter editor Tabitha Mueller at [email protected]. 

By the Numbers: 

  • 9 days until early voting ends
  • 13 days until Election Day
  • 103 days until the 83rd legislative session

GOP poll observer checklist draws backlash

By Eric Neugeboren

Poll observing is legal in Nevada, but a new tactic from Republicans in the state is prompting backlash.

With early voting underway, Republicans in Nevada have asked poll watchers to complete a more than 15-item checklist that mostly centers on ensuring that voting machines are secure and working properly, including that it does not have “visible internet connectivity.” If any item on the checklist is not observed, poll watchers are instructed to call a GOP election integrity hotline.

Critics of the policy say it could sow distrust in elections and invite harassment against election workers. That’s because Nevada law does not explicitly entitle the poll observers to much of the information outlined in the forms, such as noting the serial number of voting machines and ensuring that there are tamper-proof seals on the machines.

Read more here on the controversy and Nevada’s laws.

What we’re reading and writing

Three takeaways from JD Vance’s visit to Nevada by Eric Neugeboren and Amy Alonzo

The GOP nominee for vice president continued to scapegoat immigrants for many of the nation’s problems.

What made Sam Brown run (again) by Gabby Birenbaum 

“It's a great American kind of warrior hero story … And I think it'd be a compelling story for ‘24.”

Indy Gaming: Casinos well outside city limits donating to Vegas mayor candidates by Howard Stutz

The world of campaign finance is filled with interesting stories.

IndyFest 2024: Pollster and Sandoval optimistic that voting in Nevada will go smoothly by Howard Stutz

Gov. Sunny says a dose of skepticism by voters means they are engaged in the process.

For second time, judge dismisses GOP lawsuit challenging Nevada voter rolls by Eric Neugeboren

Another day, another GOP lawsuit dismissal …

Indy Poll Watch

AARP/Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research (Oct. 8-15)

  • 600 likely voters
  • Margin of error: 4 percent
  • Findings
    • Trump 49%, Harris 47%
    • Rosen 49%, Brown 44%

The poll, fielded right before the start of early voting, has some interesting crosstabs. Much is made of the diploma divide in politics, but this poll and others suggest the bigger divide might be along gender lines. The AARP finds that Trump is winning men by 17 percentage points, while Harris is winning women by 14 — a delta of more than 30 points.

In the 2020 presidential election, before Roe v. Wade was overturned, Trump won men and Biden won women, but the difference between the two groups was only 15 percentage points, per exit polling.

In the Senate, we’re starting to see the tightening that we’ve long expected. This survey has Rosen up by 5 percentage points — still beyond the margin of error, but not the double-digit leads that she had been posting. Rosen is outperforming Harris with Hispanic voters and non-college educated voters. 

In this survey, Trump is winning independents by 9 percentage points. Based on the early voting data we already have, such a result would guarantee he wins the state.

Insider Advantage (Oct. 19-20)

  • 800 likely voters
  • Margin of error: 3.52 percent
  • Findings
    • Trump 48%, Harris 48%
    • Rosen 48%, Brown 44%

Again, we find that the Senate race is tightening as voting begins. The big difference between Harris and Rosen? Hispanic voters — Harris is up 5 percentage points, while Rosen is up 15. 

Another big difference is voters younger than 40, more of whom are undecided in the Senate race than the presidential. While the presidential candidates are tied with young voters, Rosen is winning them by 12 percentage points, per the survey. 

— Gabby Birenbaum

Indy Ad Watch

AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: Senate closing pitches

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) and Republican Sam Brown are pushing out their final ads with Election Day less than two weeks away, with Rosen doubling down on abortion messaging and Brown continuing his focus on the economy.

The Rosen campaign released two new abortion-focused ads — an issue they’ve hit Brown on all cycle. One, “MAGA Extremist,” notes Brown’s 2014 support for a restrictive abortion ban in Texas. Another one, a hybrid ad with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), features a former president of the Nevada State Medical Association.

Brown, meanwhile, has released new ads as joint expenditures with outside groups, focused on the economy. One, featuring Donald Trump speaking, bashes Rosen and Democrats on inflation; another more directly links inflation to Democratic spending that Rosen voted for.

The messaging harkens to 2022, when Democrats made abortion one of the focal points of the state’s U.S. Senate race while Republicans centered on the economy. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) won the election by less than 1 percentage point.

TREND WE’RE FOLLOWING: Brown’s inventive spending

This week, Democrats are outspending Republicans in the Senate race by about $2 million. But the Brown campaign is cutting hybrid ads — not just with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), but with Nevada Victory Fund, a joint NRSC/Brown fundraising vehicle that was created in early October, to make their dollars go further by being able to buy at the lower candidate rate. 

The Brown campaign itself has booked about $1.5 million in ads for this week, and then has an additional $1.5 million booked through the Nevada Victory Fund/Brown hybrid ads. The Rosen campaign, meanwhile, is spending about $1.5 million, and has an additional $750,000 booked jointly with the DSCC.

The largest spender this week is still WinSenate, a group affiliated with a super PAC connected to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). WinSenate has $4.4 million worth of ad time booked this week.

ONE OTHER TIDBIT

  • Though a mailer paid for by Sen. Robin Titus’ (R-Wellington) Pocketbook Conservatives PAC in Northern Nevada’s Senate District 15 accuses candidate Assemblywoman Angie Taylor (D-Reno) of having “voted for new taxes in the Assembly,” it’s far from the truth. The claim references ACR7, which directed the Joint Interim Standing Committee on Revenue to conduct a study on wealth taxes during the 2023-2024 interim. Taylor voted for the legislation, but it did not implement a tax.

— Gabby Birenbaum and Tabitha Mueller

The Lightning Round

📬 Washoe County mail ballots not yet reflected in turnout data — Washoe County elections officials said the county has processed thousands of mail ballots that are not yet included in the state’s most recent turnout data. A spokesperson for the registrar of voters said the reports have been delayed as “we continue to work with our new ballot sorter vendor and other technical resources to configure the data used to populate the [state’s] new reporting platform.” Officials said reports will be updated “shortly.”

👀 More proof that #WeMatter — First Lady Jill Biden and former Democratic President Bill Clinton made stops in Nevada this week. Biden visited Reno and Carson City, and Clinton held a rally in Las Vegas.

🎶 Another celebrity sighting — Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar joined Lil’ Jon and UNR students during a march to the polls event during the weekend. KUNR’s Lucia Starbuck captured the moment in social media videos, including a video of Aguilar doing a lil’ jig. 

🚫 No Trump campaign rally in Minden — The Trump campaign is withdrawing its application to host a campaign rally in Douglas County at the Minden-Tahoe Airport ahead of Election Day. Douglas County commissioners had approved the application at their Oct. 17 meeting.

— Tabitha Mueller

Looking Ahead

  • Thursday, Oct. 24: The Harris-Walz campaign is hosting a get-out-the-vote event with Bill Nye “The Science Guy” at UNR to encourage college students to vote.
  • Thursday, Oct. 24: Trump is returning to Las Vegas for a rally with the conservative youth-focused group Turning Point USA, featuring Vivek Ramaswamy and Tulsi Gabbard.
  • Sunday, Oct. 27: Vice presidential hopeful Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) will be in Las Vegas for “political engagements.” We’ll update you as we get more details.

— Tabitha Mueller and Eric Neugeboren

And to ease you into the weekend, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye: 

We’ll see you Tuesday.

Interested in more newsletters from The Nevada Independent? 

Find them all here. 

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