Indy Elections: Return of the shadow PACs
Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: A look at how PACs raised money ahead of the primary (but only recently released the details), see the first pro-Harris ads to air in Nevada and Harris campaign sets voter engagement record.
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Two weeks after reporter Eric Neugeboren’s successful coup attempt of this newsletter, he has returned again to helm this week’s edition. But Tabitha Mueller is readying to retake the throne and will return next week. You can reach Tabitha at [email protected].
By the Numbers:
- 1,000 volunteers helped the Harris campaign in Nevada over the weekend.
- 33 days have passed since the presidential debate (how?)
- 0 polls taken of Nevada voters since Biden dropped out of the race, as of Monday.
The pre-primary PAC haul (weeks later)
By Eric Neugeboren
The Nevada primary election was, believe it or not, just seven weeks ago.
But we didn’t know how candidates and PACs spent money or who gave to them in the months ahead of the election until about two weeks ago, leaving the public in the dark.
That’s because of a loophole. Campaign finance reports from the second quarter — which runs from April through June — do not have to be released until July 15, even though the primary election is in June. This particularly helps new PACs (that have never filed campaign finance reports) evade transparency about their funding sources — a reality that one UNLV professor called “an effective means to be quiet with your money.”
An analysis by The Indy found 26 PACs that were created from April 1 to June 11 and 10 of them collectively raised more than $1.6 million in that period, spending most of it.
Read more here on how new PACs spent money ahead of the primary.
What we’re reading and writing
Las Vegas Sands quietly helped fund Nevada voter ID initiative by Riley Snyder
Name a more reliable duo than Miriam Adelson and election-year donations
'We're first cousins': Harris' longstanding ties to Nevada could benefit her 2024 run by Gabby Birenbaum
There’s always a Nevada angle
AG appeals Nevada fake electors case to state Supreme Court by Gabby Birenbaum
We love a Friday night news dump 😍
RFK Jr. has enough valid signatures to make Nevada ballot, officials say by Eric Neugeboren
Third petition’s the charm
Uber-backed ballot question capping attorney fees widely supported, internal poll finds by Eric Neugeboren
It looks like an uber-popular initiative
Nevada Democratic delegates unanimously back Harris for president by Gabby Birenbaum
Harrismentum
Indy Poll Watch
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Ever since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, pollsters have spent the last week releasing new data on the state of the race nationally and in key swing states — but so far, not in Nevada.
As of Monday afternoon, no prominent pollster has released a new survey of the Silver State since Harris entered the race, despite similar polls being released in Arizona and the “Blue Wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Polls have also been released in seemingly less competitive states of North Carolina and Minnesota.
The only poll of Nevada released last week came from Redfield and Wilton Strategies, a lower-profile firm that is tracking presidential and Senate candidates in swing states. This survey found Harris trailing former President Donald Trump by 2 points among 435 likely voters, a slight improvement for Democrats after the firm’s prior poll found President Joe Biden trailing Trump by 3 percent.
One other pollster — InsiderAdvantage — polled a then-potential Harris-Trump matchup in Nevada before Biden dropped out, finding the former president leading Harris by 10 percentage points.
So, pollsters, as our humble co-managing editor Riley Snyder said: Please don’t be like the lion in the Wizard of Oz.
— Eric Neugeboren
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: The Harris ad train
Four pro-Harris ads have gone live in the past week in the Silver State, one focusing on Harris’ background and the other three (here, here and here) focusing on abortion rights. The ads were bought by three national PACs: Reproductive Freedom For All, Women Vote! and Future Forward, the largest Democratic-leaning super PAC that has announced a $50 million ad blitz for Harris in six swing states before the party’s convention next month.
The four ads have collectively cost around $17,000 and been viewed more than 550,000 times, but those numbers are all but guaranteed to balloon as Harris’ campaign operation heats up.
— Eric Neugeboren
TOP FOUR ADS WITH THE HIGHEST SPENDING (7/23-7/29)
Data from political ad-tracking organization AdImpact
- U.S. Senate race: WinSenate (anti-Brown) - Extreme Views
- Began airing: 7/26/24
- Total spend: $729,712
- Ad impressions (number of times an advertisement was seen, regardless of whether the viewer took any action): 9.9 million
- U.S. Senate race: Rosen for NV Senate (anti-Brown) - Abortion Rights
- Began airing: 7/5/24
- Total spend: $225,246
- Ad impressions: 5.9 million
- U.S. Senate race: Rosen for NV Senate (pro-Rosen) - I Work For You
- Began airing: 7/15/24
- Total spend: $205,899
- Ad impressions: 6.4 million
- U.S. Senate race: WinSenate (anti-Brown) - Prosecute
- Began airing: 7/23/24
- Total spend: $169,970
- Ad impressions: 3 million
SPENDING SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK
— Eric Neugeboren
The Lightning Round
🔵 Harris campaign sets records for weekend engagement — The Harris campaign held more than 50 events in Nevada this weekend and reached nearly 50,000 voters, with support from more than 1,000 volunteers, which surpassed all weekend organizing records from the Biden campaign in Nevada, the campaign said Monday. The events included an appearance from Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) whose mother lives in Las Vegas. Booker championed Harris’ work on criminal justice and cannabis laws, and many attendees told The Indy that her entry into the race had inspired them to get out and canvass for the first time.
🗣️ Assembly Democrats make two endorsements — The Assembly Democratic Caucus endorsed two candidates that it had declined to back in the primaries. In Assembly District 17, the caucus endorsed Linda Hunt, a Culinary Union leader and food server who easily prevailed over the caucus-backed candidate Mishon Montgomery. The caucus also endorsed Heather Goulding, a community organizer who defeated caucus-backed attorney Alex Velto in the Assembly District 27 primary. Assembly District 17 is safely Democratic by voter registration, while Assembly District 27 leans blue.
📣 Rosen, Brown to debate in September — Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) will debate Republican challenger Sam Brown on Oct. 17, which will be hosted by 8 News Now. It’s the first publicly announced debate for the key Senate race. Rosen’s campaign declined a debate hosted by The Nevada Independent.
❓ Nevada Supreme Court: Is Washoe case moot? — The Nevada Supreme Court last week asked the state to prove why its lawsuit seeking certification of Washoe County’s recount results is not moot. The attorney general’s office filed the lawsuit earlier this month on behalf of the secretary of state’s office after county officials declined to certify the results of recounts of contested races. But days after the lawsuit was filed, county officials reconvened to certify the results. At the time, a spokesperson for the secretary of state’s office said the certification did not address the underlying legal question sent to the high court, which is the “appropriate place to resolve this issue.” A response to the Supreme Court is due by Thursday.
— Eric Neugeboren and Isabella Aldrete
Looking Ahead
- Tuesday, July 30: Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) is making his first stop in Nevada since being named Trump’s running mate, with stops in Henderson and Reno.
- This week: The Nevada Democratic Party is continuing its weeklong tour across Nevada’s 17 counties, which launched Monday and focuses on “kitchen table” policies, including Social Security, Medicaid, climate action and lowering costs.
— Eric Neugeboren
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
We’ll see you next week.
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