Gov. Joe Lombardo has a positive approval rating among Nevadans with more than a year to go until his re-election bid, but a poll commissioned by The Majority Institute, a Democratic Party-aligned firm and shared with The Nevada Independent found the Republican particularly vulnerable on economic issues and his ties to President Donald Trump. 

Lombardo had an approval rating of 51 percent (and a disapproval rating of 38 percent) among all respondents, though 37 percent of them rated Lombardo’s performance as governor as “excellent” or “good,” while another 38 percent marked him as “just so-so.”

Only 29 percent of surveyed Latinos, who are a growing political force in Nevada, said Lombardo’s tenure had been “excellent” or “good.” His approval rating among Latinos was essentially even. Lombardo’s approval rating with Latinos (43 percent) in the poll would still mark an improvement from his 2022 race, where exit polls indicated that he won about 33 percent of Latinos.

The poll of 800 likely voters, which included an additional oversample of 150 Latino voters, was conducted by Hart Research, a Democratic polling firm, from May 29 through June 4. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points. 

There has been sparse polling of the Republican governor’s popularity this year, but a recent poll of gubernatorial approval ratings by Morning Consult found Lombardo with a 21-point net approval rating, 8 points higher than his net rating in this poll. 

John Burke, a spokesperson for the Lombardo-backed Better Nevada PAC, said in a statement that the poll “further confirms what we've known to be true from other polling: the majority of Nevadans approve of Governor Joe Lombardo's bipartisan, results-driven leadership and they want to see him continue to move our state forward.”

Geoff Garin, the president of Hart Research who has done extensive polling work for Democrats, said in an interview that the poll showed “there’s no real depth” to Lombardo’s support.

After respondents were given a series of critiques about Lombardo, the share of people with negative views on his tenure nearly doubled.

“We almost never see the kind of movement that we're measuring against Lombardo in this poll,” Garin said. “The high degree of movement speaks both to the weakness of his position and to the potency of the criticisms against him.”

The Trump effect

In a midterm, voter opinions on the Trump administration will likely play a key role in the gubernatorial race. The poll found Trump 9 points underwater among all respondents, with that deficit nearly tripled among Latinos.

Lombardo — who was endorsed by Trump in 2022 — has historically walked a fine line in endorsing Trump’s policies. After the passage of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” Lombardo touted the provisions to end taxes on tips and overtime and said he “continues to assess this bill,” which includes wide-ranging cuts to Medicaid and food stamps that could affect tens of thousands of Nevadans.

In response to an interview question about the Trump administration’s tariffs —  its most unpopular policy among poll respondents — Lombardo said “we need to maybe feel a little pain in the short term and hopefully in the long term, it’s a huge benefit for us,” touting the potential benefit to increase jobs. Lombardo also sent a letter to Trump calling for the removal of tariffs on lithium.

Trump’s other most unpopular policies assessed in the poll were immigration enforcement and response to inflation. The poll was conducted before the “beautiful bill” reached Trump’s desk, and was taken just after the administration doubled down on its calls to increase immigration arrests.

A CBS News poll on Sunday found Trump’s approval decreasing since June, with particular disapproval of his immigration and economic policies.

“The headwinds against … Republicans generally have gotten stronger since the time we did the poll,” Garin said.

Among respondents who were critical of Trump’s policies, about 80 percent said Lombardo had not been willing enough to take on Trump. Voters were also most critical about his support of Trump, outpacing concerns related to the economy, housing prices and abortion rights.

State on the wrong track?

Lombardo will have to contend with pessimism about the state’s future.

About 55 percent of respondents said the state was on the wrong track and were dissatisfied with the way things are going in Nevada. Additionally, almost all respondents said the cost of living has gotten worse in recent years, and a plurality of voters (39 percent) said that Lombardo has done a less than adequate job at tackling the economy.

In particular, respondents viewed Lombardo more negatively after learning that he vetoed bills that would have capped rent increases on seniors and people with disabilities. 

Additionally, an overwhelming majority (86 percent) of respondents who were asked about the education system in Nevada — which has long struggled with chronic underfunding — said it has become much worse in recent years.