Nevada judge sidelines prediction market ahead of the Super Bowl
In many ways, it’s still early in the game between the legal sports betting industry and prediction markets, which are seeking a piece of the action. This contest could last well into 2026.
Polymarket has been blocked from offering sports prediction contracts in Nevada, including Sunday’s Super Bowl LX, after a Carson City judge agreed to a temporary restraining order sought by the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
District Judge Jason Woodbury agreed last week with a request from the regulatory agency, which filed a civil enforcement case on Jan. 16 against Blockratize, the platform provider to Polymarket. The ruling was first reported by Front Office Sports.
“The record at this early stage in proceedings indicates Polymarket offers ‘event-based contracts’ that relate to sporting and other events, including college basketball games, college and professional football games and elections,” Woodbury wrote on Jan. 29.
The judge added that Polymarket is not licensed to offer sports betting in Nevada.
Prediction markets — which are overseen by a federal commodity-focused regulatory panel — reach into all 50 states, allowing people to wager on the outcomes of events ranging from entertainment, politics, pop culture, financial markets and even the weather in the form of “yes” and “no” contracts.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.
Meanwhile, the control board filed a similar lawsuit in the same Carson City court against Coinbase, seeking a preliminary injunction to stop the prediction market from offering unlicensed sports wagering in violation of state law.
The lawsuits marked an escalation of Nevada’s previous legal strategy — gaming regulators have legal action pending against two other prediction markets, Kalshi and Crypto.com, through cease-and-desist letters. Chairman Mike Dreitzer declined to comment beyond a statement.
In November, a federal judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports contracts in Nevada after ruling in favor of gaming regulators who filed the cease-and-desist order. The decision is being appealed.
Robinhood, another prediction market in a legal tussle with Nevada, agreed to stop offering sports event contracts in the Silver State pending further legal proceedings.
In December, Florida-based gaming attorney Daniel Wallach urged states to take the fight to prediction markets by suing first. “States are making a mistake by using cease-and-desist letters to give companies like Kalshi advance warning.”
Nevada is one of nearly two dozen states and tribal gaming authorities that have filed federal lawsuits seeking to block prediction markets from offering sports wagering contracts (the term companies use to describe the business) in their jurisdictions.
The Nevada ban on Polymarket covers 14 days, which will include this weekend’s Super Bowl between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.
Last week, the American Gaming Association predicted more than $1.76 billion would be wagered legally on the Super Bowl. Sports betting is legal in 40 states and Washington, D.C. In 2025, Nevada sportsbooks won a record $22.1 million on the Super Bowl after taking in $151.6 million in wagers.
The AGA also released findings of a survey showing that prediction markets are confusing consumers by promoting sports betting as an investment rather than entertainment.
The study found that 78 percent of prediction market users believe their individual state regulators could assist in resolving disputes over event contracts.
MGM CEO touts Vegas’ future now that 2025 is in the books
MGM Resorts International CEO Bill Hornbuckle offered the audience at Preview Las Vegas 2026 a four-word message about the future of the Strip: “Vegas is not dead.”
A few days before Friday’s Vegas Chamber-sponsored event, the Strip’s final tourism figures for 2025 didn’t paint a rosy portrait of Las Vegas’ economic health. Annual gaming revenue of $8.8 billion was flat compared to 2024. Las Vegas visitation fell 7.5 percent, airline passenger volume was down 6 percent and hotel occupancy was off 3 percent.
“I read the headlines. The idea that we’re dead, or even the notion of it, and with all the rhetoric on social [media]. Stop. We are in great shape. We have a great future,” Hornbuckle said.
The good news? Hornbuckle said MGM, which operates nine Strip resorts, has already booked a record number of conventions and conferences over the next 16 months. He suggested the company is a trend predictor for Las Vegas.
Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority CEO Steve Hill echoed those remarks in a media briefing following the discussion that included Boyd Gaming CEO Keith Smith.
“When we go through a little bit of a slowdown, we know that hurts everybody, and so we are doubly committed to overcoming that,” Hill said. “The future in Las Vegas always looks bright. We remain a category of one. We remain the easiest product in the world to sell.”
However, one twice-a-year Las Vegas visitor from California emailed me to say the Strip remains overpriced.
“Vegas has gotten so incredibly expensive for everything. Resort fees, room service delivery fees, and every other fee that they can possibly take from people,” Neal Wild wrote. “Everything is crazy expensive. It is very obvious that corporate greed is in full force in Las Vegas.”
Hill said resort fees are transparent and part of the price when someone books a room.
“You can go today and find a room in this city where the price of the room, including the resort fee, is less than $100 for the day,” Hill said. “That is real value, no matter how that bill is divided up.”
Remember Echelon? Boyd’s CEO says killing the project saved the company
Keith Smith’s first major decision as Boyd Gaming’s CEO has been credited by industry experts with saving the company.
In 2008, with the Great Recession bearing down on Las Vegas, Smith decided to pull the plug on Echelon, a planned $4.8 billion Strip resort.
It was both an easy decision and the hardest Smith has made in the past 18 years.
“We were less than half the size of the company we are today,” Smith said of the company that now owns or manages 29 casinos in 10 states, including 10 in the Las Vegas area. “[Echelon] was simply not a project that defines who we are as a company.”
Smith, who has been with Boyd in a corporate capacity since 1990, was asked during Preview Las Vegas 2026 what his toughest decision as CEO was.
Echelon was under construction for nearly two years when Boyd, after already investing roughly $1 billion into the project, decided to halt work for at least a few quarters.
“We were watching the economy unravel very quickly,” Smith said. After several quarters of a failing economy, “we chose to shut the project and simply not move forward.”
Smith admitted there was initial criticism for not moving forward with Echelon. But two years later, those same critics “said it was the best decision we ever made.”
Boyd sold the 87-acre site in 2013 to Malaysia-based Genting Corp. for $500 million. It took another eight years for Genting to build the $4.3 billion Resorts World Las Vegas, which opened in 2021.
What I'm reading
💲 Super Bowl host California bans sports betting, but prediction markets found a loophole — A.J. Perez, Los Angeles Times
State lawmakers, tribes and the NFL oppose the prediction markets.
💸 New Sports Betting Alliance president has long warned about disruptions to gaming industry — Rege Behe, CDC Gaming
Joe Maloney has long warned about illegal gaming markets and their effect on existing legal jurisdictions.
News, notes and quotes
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