Everyone apparently agrees that #WeMatter in Nevada — but Republicans sure don’t seem to know how to show it. 

While Democrats have been pouring money into the state and renewing their efforts to win back the support of key demographics, neither the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) nor the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) have even made ad reservations in Southern Nevada so far this cycle. In fact, Republican money has been surprisingly light, considering how important the state will be in determining the balance of power in Washington, D.C. 

Even where national Republicans have gotten involved in Nevada’s races, the attention seems to be primarily on getting out the vote in deep red rural areas rather than appealing to the state’s ever-growing independent voters. 

Part of the relatively low levels of investment from the national GOP infrastructure could be due to a belief that down-ticket races would magically ride the coattails of former President Donald Trump, who had been consistently leading in the polls since last October. Indeed, Trump’s resilient advantage against President Joe Biden was seen by many Republicans as an indication that the state was, after numerous devastating losses, finally trending in their direction.

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Steve Daines (R-MT) effectively said as much, when he explained that U.S. Senate hopeful Sam Brown’s numbers would likely begin to reflect those of Trump and improve against Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) as November approaches. 

“History shows in a presidential year these races will all start to track by the time they get to the end of October,” Daines said, according to The Nevada Independent. “And then on Election Day, importantly, [Brown] will be tracking pretty close with the presidential ballot.” 

At the time, that sort of thinking was probably pretty reassuring to down-ticket Republicans. It might even be one of the reasons Brown felt comfortable ditching a campaign event in Elko for a Bitcoin convention in Nashville where he could rub shoulders with Trump and other national party leaders. 

However, as was obvious to most everyone outside the GOP echo chamber, Trump’s lead in the polls didn’t reflect some sort of widespread embrace of the MAGA political agenda — it merely reflected a longstanding dissatisfaction with President Biden. And when Biden stepped down from seeking re-election, the dynamics of the race were bound to change in a big way for swing states such as Nevada, regardless of who the Democrats decided to nominate in his place. 

A couple of recent polls indicate that change is already taking place. A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll from July shows Vice President Kamala Harris in an effective tie with Trump, and a poll conducted by Decipher Ai’s David Wolfson shows Harris with a nearly 6 percentage point lead — a far cry from the sort of results Republicans had grown accustomed to just a few weeks ago. Clearly the “anyone but Biden” contingent of voters aren’t as staunchly Trumpian as Republicans had hoped, and many of them see Harris as a welcome alternative. 

As with every poll, however, there are plenty of asterisks and disclaimers to be made while digging through the data. And while things certainly seem to be trending in favor of Harris and the Democrats for the moment, there’s no guarantee she will be capable of sustaining current levels of support when the honeymoon phase of her campaign inevitably comes to an end. After all, it’s worth remembering that in the 2020 Democratic primary she didn’t exactly prove herself to be an effective campaigner. Moreover, like Trump, she remains an unpopular political figure in her own right. 

Nonetheless, her initial advantage over Trump demonstrates just how much Biden’s departure from the ticket has altered the underlying dynamics of the race. It also underscores just how quickly fortunes can change in our current political climate and how fickle those swing voters can be in our overly partisan era. 

And Nevada has plenty of swing voters who are willing to behave independently and split their vote when the occasion calls for it. As recently as 2012, Nevada voters split their tickets between a president and a senator of opposing parties, and in 2022 voters were more than happy to elect a Republican governor and controller along with a Democratic attorney general, secretary of state and state treasurer. 

In other words, we’re no strangers to putting aside party allegiances in important elections. Nevada, as it turns out, has an electorate that tends to be far more complex and independent than the shrinking partisan tribes would prefer — which is not only the reason for our divided government on the state level, but also the reason for all those (now useless) polls showing Trump leading Biden while Rosen remained consistently ahead of Brown. 

As one of six swing states that will effectively determine the presidential race in November, Nevada’s independently minded electorate will have a tremendous influence over the trajectory of national politics this election cycle. And yet, if the Republican Party continues to behave as if the supposed charisma of its chosen leader is all that’s needed to keep this swingy state in play for every race on the ballot, it’s going to be in for a rough ride these next couple of months. 

Or to put it another way, if Republicans have any inclination of how much #WeMatter in Nevada, they had better start campaigning like it.

Michael Schaus is a communications and branding expert based in Las Vegas, Nevada, and founder of Schaus Creative LLC — an agency dedicated to helping organizations, businesses and activists tell their story and motivate change. He has more than a decade of experience in public affairs commentary, having worked as a news director, columnist, political humorist, and most recently as the director of communications for a public policy think tank. Follow him at SchausCreative.com or on Twitter at @schausmichael.