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Paddock “won” $5 million in jackpots in 2015, but that’s not the bottom line

John L. Smith
John L. Smith
Opinion
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The seemingly impressive figure generated big headlines.

“Las Vegas shooter declared $5 million gambling winnings,” Slate shouted.

“Las Vegas gunman earned millions as a gambler,” CNBC.com declared.

What followed were intriguing, but admittedly inconclusive reports on the video poker gambling activity of mass murderer Stephen Paddock. In recent days he’s been described by his girlfriend as “a kind, caring, quiet man” and by those who watched him in casinos as an antisocial alcoholic who qualified for a millionaire’s credit line because he played poker slots like a fiend.

When Paddock turned up downtown, he played for days at a stretch and caused enough of a stir to be remembered by veteran casino employees. On the Strip, he worked both sides of Las Vegas Boulevard, slamming multiple machines like a dervish, and occasionally winning tournaments. He piled up the comps and was welcomed as long as his bankroll held out.

He pumped up to $100,000 per hour through the machines, some media outlets breathlessly reported, apparently not fully appreciating the fact most of those machines had an extremely high rate of payout. Paddock amassed gambling “winnings” of $5 million in 2015 verified in IRS forms, but the number is misleading. Casinos by law issue issue a Form W-2G titled “Certain Gambling Winnings” to players who score jackpots and winnings subject to federal income tax withholding.

But that’s not the tax form that’s sure to intrigue investigators. Former top IRS Criminal Investigation special agents interviewed this week just shrugged at the publication of that $5 million figure. It’s all but meaningless in determining whether Paddock was money ahead, treading water, or sinking like a stone.

For that information, Form 1040 Schedule A is essential. One check under the heading “Other Miscellaneous Deduction” for gambling losses will reveal a lot about Paddock and whether the former accountant and one-time IRS employee was much of a  “professional gambler,” as his brother described him, or just a deeply troubled person with a vicious video poker jones and enough money to keep it fed.

Former IRS Criminal Investigation Special Agent in Charge James Dowling, managing partner of the Dowling Advisory Group, has more than three decades investigating and analyzing financial crime and was the anti-money laundering advisor to the White House Drug Policy Office under President George W. Bush.

“How much did he have in losses?” Dowling asked. “I can put $100,000 into a slot machine and hit a $20,000 jackpot, but where am I at? I’m down $80,000.”

Paddock gambled at a level and pace most recreational players never approach. In a game that provides entertainment for many and a pathway to compulsive gambling problems for some, the vast majority of players fall into the category best described by the late casino executive Bob Maxey, who once told me, “Video poker players aren’t gambling. They’re renting space.”

Paddock’s relentless play generated perquisites at several Strip resorts, where he was known as a “low seven” player (as in low seven figures),” Las Vegas Advisor publisher Anthony Curtis says. After generating a quick profile of the killer’s gambling habits, gambling expert Curtis has been interviewed by a crush of media. He’s tempted to consider Paddock as much a comp hustler as a pro at the top of his game.

But more information is needed. Like the former federal agents, Curtis also knows the bottom line isn’t how much a player generates in W-2G slips. It’s losses that are actually revealing.

“The dynamics of this are really important,” Curtis said. “When someone says he bet a million a night, he could do that starting with a few hundreds dollars. This is all about the semantics of it. If he had $5 million in W-2Gs, those were his jackpots. These were the sum totals of his jackpots. He might have had another 50 times more in intermittent winnings, and probably and maybe 200 times more in losses along the way.”

Curtis publishes how-to books by experts on getting the most from the machines. It isn’t easy to come out ahead, but the right strategy and taking advantage of all the perquisites available can help generate value that others miss.

Dowling hesitated when asked about the likelihood of most video poker “pros” keeping ahead of the odds over the long haul.

“I do know those machines use random number generators,” Dowling said, “so if there’s a strategy, it’s certainly outside my purview.”

With multiple casino sources reporting Paddock had plenty of losses on the Strip to go with that $5 million in jackpot wins, it leaves one former federal financial crimes expert asking a tough question:

“At the end of the day, can you explain all his income?”

Not until you get to the real bottom line, and even then the only numbers that will ever really matter are 58 and more than 500.

John L. Smith is a longtime Las Vegas journalist and author. Contact him at [email protected].

On Twitter: @jlnevadasmith

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