When it rains, it pours.
A day after I published a rare Nevada 2020 poll, the folks at Morning Consult graciously extracted their Nevada numbers for me out of their daily national polling. They are slightly different than the Change Research numbers, showing Joe Biden with a much bigger lead over Bernie Sanders — but they are clearly the top two.
Biden, 38 percent
Sanders, 25 percent
Elizabeth Warren, 8 percent
Kamala Harris, 8 percent
Pete Buttigieg, 8 percent
Cory Booker, 3 percent
Beto O’Rourke, 2 percent
Amy Klobuchar, 1.5 percent
No one else got to 1 percent.
The data is from 499 interviews in Nevada taken from April 25 to May 12 in their daily polling, so the margin of error would be about 5 percent. In that period, Morning Consult surveyed 39,930 voters nationwide.
Remember, though, these are registered voters, not likely caucus goers. It is difficult to screen at all for caucuses, and registered voters create an even greater likelihood for error.
But: You now have two polls that show Biden and Sanders are strong here. And Sanders’ strength with Hispanics in the Change poll and his previous strong showing here indicate he could be very competitive.
Of course there are other caveats: It’s so early, more candidates will come in and drop out. And what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire will not stay in Iowa and New Hampshire — it will affect Nevada.