For the first time in nearly 20 years, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats in Nevada.

Using updated voter registration data from the secretary of state’s office procured by Republican strategist Jeremy Hughes, which was shared and reviewed by The Nevada Independent, Republicans built a lead of about 340 voters over Democrats in January. By November 2024, Democrats’ longstanding voter registration advantage was down to fewer than 6,000 voters in a state with more than 2 million active registered voters. 

Despite beating Democrats, both parties still lag registered nonpartisans, who became the biggest political group in the state in August 2022 and whose share of the electorate has continued to increase. There are nearly 692,000 registered nonpartisans, while Republicans have 617,204 voters to Democrats’ 616,863.

Both major parties’ vote share relative to nonpartisans has fallen during the past four years. But Republicans are losing fewer voters than Democrats, contributing to their new lead. 

Still, the change marks an important symbolic victory for the Nevada GOP, less than three months after winning a presidential election in the Silver State for the first time since 2004. With Democrats’ traditional voter registration advantage erased, Republicans, who have historically turned out at higher rates than registered Democrats, should have an easier path toward winning future elections.

Both parties say they plan to focus on nonpartisan voters. With the reality of automatic voter registration, parties are freed up from much of their voter access work and can put the bulk of their operations toward voter persuasion.

Longtime Nevada GOP Chairman Michael McDonald credited Republicans’ 2024 voter registration operation — particularly the work of conservative organization Turning Point USA — with creating the lead, and expects it to build given Republican gains among young voters.

Moving forward into 2026, he said the goal is to convert nonpartisans who voted for Trump into registered Republicans.

“We saw the shift coming back when they voted this time,” McDonald said of nonpartisan voters. “If you look at the numbers, they voted for President Trump because they like the policies. Hopefully, they take one step further in this next cycle with Gov. [Joe] Lombardo and they become Republican again.”  

Nevada State Democratic Party Executive Director Hilary Barrett, meanwhile, said in a statement that the party will continue talking to registered nonpartisans, relying on the traditional strength of the Reid Machine’s voter outreach.

“Nevada is a battleground state where nonpartisan voters decide elections, which is why we invest in year-round organizing focused on both turning out Democrats and earning support from nonpartisans and moderate Republicans,” Barrett said.

How we got here

In 2007, with then-Sen. Harry Reid’s (D-NV) eponymous machine making huge strides in voter registration, Democrats took the lead over Republicans in voter registration. With the excitement surrounding Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential run, Democrats took advantage of the state’s presidential nominating caucus to run a massive voter registration drive and expand the party’s lead. They maintained that advantage for nearly 18 years. 

But Democrats’ advantage narrowed significantly after the implementation of automatic voter registration in 2020. With hundreds of thousands of voters being added to the rolls — and the majority being nonpartisan — both parties saw their share of the voter pool dwindle.

At the onset of automatic voter registration in 2020, Democrats had a lead of more than 110,000 voters over Republicans. But that lead has dwindled each year before totally cratering in 2024. 

The trend has been most evident in Clark County, where nearly three-quarters of all Nevada voters live and where Democrats’ strength has been able to offset strong Republican support in the state’s rural areas in prior elections. In Joe Biden’s narrow 2020 victory in the state, Democrats had a nearly 12-percentage point advantage among registered voters in Clark County, and Biden ultimately won the county by about 9 percentage points.

By 2024, however, Democrats’ lead in Clark County registered voters was down to nearly 6 percentage points; Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won the county by less than 3 percentage points and subsequently lost the state.

The first test of Republicans’ new voter registration advantage — if they can maintain it — will be next year’s elections for statewide officers, starting with defending Lombardo in his bid for a second term.