What does new FEC data say ahead of Nevada’s 2026 midterms?
Indy Elections takes you behind the headlines of Nevada politics, delivering scoops and smart analysis on the races that could reshape our lives.
In today’s edition: The congressional fundraising analysis you won’t find anywhere else. Plus: Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro backs film tax expansion, some big candidate announcements, and DHS ads hit Nevada.
Welcome back to Indy Elections! Nineteen Nevada House candidates filed quarterly reports with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) last week, so it’s really starting to feel like the midterms are coming. I’ve spent the past few days elbows deep in the documents — read on for one weird trick Republicans are using in competitive districts, my take on the candidates to watch and the donors that jumped out — including potential 2028 Democrats.
It isn’t just the FEC reports signaling the midterms are heating up. From the fight for a film tax expansion measure to the crackdown on immigrants and diversity programs across the state to the battle over the government shutdown and rising health care costs; it’s proof that campaign season never stops.
This newsletter is published every other week. We want to hear from you! Send us questions, coverage suggestions, tips, and anything that will make us laugh. Email your newsletter editor Mini Racker at [email protected].
Money talks
Campaign finance documents submitted last week are beginning to reveal what the 2026 midterms will look like in Nevada’s four congressional districts. We’ve got all the data for you in some handy charts.
What stands out is the sheer number of self-funders taking on Reps. Susie Lee (D-NV) and Steven Horsford (D-NV). Though these seats look swingy on paper, Republicans have not won either seat for a decade. A self-funded nominee would help take some of the investment pressure off the party apparatus. Several candidates fit the bill.
I’ve pulled many other needles out of the FEC data haystack, including donations from potential 2028 presidential candidates Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) and from Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s (D) leadership PAC.
Read our story for those nuggets and much more.
— Mini Racker
Lights. Cannizzaro. Action!
In the 2025 legislative session, Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas) was not exactly the biggest booster of efforts to massively expand Nevada’s film tax credit program.
But last Wednesday, she joined several hundred building trades union members at the Las Vegas Ballpark to support a renewed push for expanding film tax credits, rallying the crowd with a snappy speech that harkened to her labor roots.
“I grew up in a union household, and I know what a good-paying job and benefits did for my family. For my working class family, that made the difference,” Cannizzaro, who is now running for attorney general, said. “I know that there are jobs associated with this.”
The film tax studio expansion effort was complicated by two competing measures — one from state Sen. Roberta Lange (D-Las Vegas) and the other from Assms. Sandra Jauregui (D-Las Vegas) and Daniele Monroe-Moreno (D-North Las Vegas). The Jauregui and Monroe-Moreno-backed legislation passed out of the Assembly on a 22-20 vote in May, but died in the Senate on the last day of the legislative session. Lange’s measure never advanced out of the Senate.
The unions are pushing for Jauregui and Monroe-Moreno’s proposal to be included in an expected special session this fall. The effort is backed by Summerlin developer Howard Hughes Holdings as well as two of the biggest names in the film industry — Sony Pictures Entertainment and Warner Bros. Discovery. The proposal would appropriate $95 million in annual transferable film tax credits for a period of 15 years, beginning in 2028, and would mark an 850 percent increase from Nevada’s existing program.
Sens. Marilyn Dondero Loop (D-Las Vegas), Rochelle Nguyen (D-Las Vegas) and John Steinbeck (R-Las Vegas) were also spotted at the rally, potentially indicating more support for the project. At least 13 members of the Assembly also attended.
If proponents hope to get the effort on to a special session agenda, they’ll need to lock up enough votes and the support of Gov. Joe Lombardo (R), who is responsible for setting a special session agenda.
In a labor-heavy town such as Las Vegas, Cannizzaro’s support for the bill could be a strategic bid to shore up union backing as part of her attorney general campaign.
— Oona Milliken and Tabitha Mueller
What We’re Reading and Writing
The Nevada Independent: Sandra Jauregui, the No. 3 Democrat in Assembly, to run for Nevada lieutenant governor
Read our exclusive on Jauregui’s political plans.
As the only Nevada Republican in Congress, Mark Amodei gets a lot of calls asking about the Trump administration’s decisions. Even he doesn’t always get a heads up.
The Los Angeles Times: In shutdown fight, this Nevada Democrat stands (almost) alone. And she’s fine with that
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) isn’t up for re-election until 2028.
D.C. Download
- Cortez Masto joined just two Democrats in voting to advance full-year defense appropriations last week and is meeting with Republicans in the hopes of hashing out a compromise to end the shutdown.
- Lee, who prides herself on bipartisanship, told me this: “Obviously Catherine has her position, and Jacky, you know, stands more closely aligned with where I am, but I think all of us in Nevada understand what the expiring tax credit will mean.”
- I asked Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) about roadblocks the Trump administration has thrown up on a Nevada solar project: “This administration, out of spite for the former administration, they're canceling projects that are critical to our national security, safety, financial independence, not to mention the jobs that it costs,” she said. “I’m going to try to fight the administration on this in every way that I can.”
- On Monday, Nevada Democrats sent a letter to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum expressing concern about “unnecessary red tape” limiting solar and wind development.
- Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited the Nevada National Security Site on Monday as the National Nuclear Security Administration furloughed 1,400 workers who oversee the nuclear stockpile.
- Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) slammed the cuts as “a decision our enemies will welcome.”
— Mini Racker
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: Kristi Noem takes the airwaves
The Department of Homeland Security has poured millions of dollars into a new, nationwide ad campaign urging people to self-deport as the Trump administration ramps up efforts to crack down on unauthorized immigration.
In its most prominent ad, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem touts a free flight home, a stipend of up to $3,000 and a “chance to come back legally” for those who self-deport using an app called “CBP Home.” For migrants who chose not to self-deport, Noem says, “Your trip home will be hard. We will find you.”
In Las Vegas, that ad has been viewed 8.4 million times since its launch, according to an analysis from ad-tracking firm AdImpact. The administration has reported spending more than $328,500 on running the ad in the area, landing among the top markets for that ad. A minute-long version has been viewed 3.1 million times since its launch.
— Isabella Aldrete
Mini Series
📣 Republican Adriana Guzmán Fralick announces bid for attorney general — Adriana Guzmán Fralick, chair of the state’s Cannabis Compliance Board, announced she is running for attorney general Wednesday, pledging to work with Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo to “ensure Nevada never becomes a sanctuary state.” The day before her campaign announcement, Guzmán Fralick submitted a letter to Lombardo’s office saying she will resign on Nov. 20. She’ll face off against Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian in the GOP primary.
☑️ Blayne Osborn nomination approved — Douglas and Lyon counties’ commissions unanimously approved Blayne Osborn’s nomination to the open Assembly District 39 seat ahead of an expected special session this fall. Former Assm. Ken Gray (R-Dayton) resigned from the seat in July to take up an appointment as senior adviser to the National Cemetery Administration. The county commissions will meet jointly on Nov. 6 to finalize the appointment and swear Osborn into office.
🪧No Kings in the Silver State — Somewhere between 4 million and 6.5 million people likely participated in the anti-Trump “No Kings” demonstrations across the country on Saturday, according to crowdsourced turnout estimates from journalist G. Elliott Morris and The Xylom. Turnout estimates include at least 18,000 people in Reno, 5,500 in Las Vegas and 3,000 in Henderson, though numbers weren’t available for every protest site in the state.
— Tabitha Mueller and Mini Racker
Looking Ahead
- Thursday, Oct. 23 — Treasury holds a hearing for “No Tax on Tips”
- Monday, Oct. 27 — The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws committee meets in D.C. to kick off the 2028 primary calendar process
A post that caught our eye:
You can almost hear the crickets.
We’ll see you next week.
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